Over/Under for Mookie Betts Home Runs in 2019 Set at 27.5
- Betts claimed AL MVP honors while setting career highs in 2018
- 26-year-old joined the 30/30 club in 2018, with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases
- Move to second in Red Sox batting order could impact some offensive stats
2018 was a dream season for Mookie Betts. In addition to claiming the American League batting title with a .346 average, the Red Sox outfielder also gained admission to Major League Baseball’s exclusive 30/30 club, with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases.
And if Betts needed any further motivation to build on last year’s numbers after capturing AL MVP honors and a World Series title last fall, he now enters the 2019 MLB campaign with his sights set on a rich new contract next winter.
Here’s a look at the lofty expectations that Betts faces this season on the MLB player props, and where you can find value in wagering on the 26-year-old superstar.
Mookie Betts Projected 2019 Batting Average
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over .300 | -115 |
| Under .300 | -115 |
A change in the batting order will likely have an impact on some areas of Betts’ performance, but not so much with his average.
Betts has benefited from his close personal relationship with last season’s Triple Crown threat JD Martinez, and his performance at the plate should only improve even if he continues to bat second, as he has done for much of the Grapefruit League campaign.
Red Sox moving Mookie Betts from leadoff to second slot https://t.co/cXRpS4MIDp pic.twitter.com/99GwfRjVxt
— Boston.com Sports (@BDCSports) December 12, 2018
Mookie Betts Five-Year Stats Snapshot
| Year | Team | At-Bats | Home Runs | RBI | Average | Stolen Bases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Red Sox | 520 | 32 | 80 | .346 | 30 |
| 2017 | Red Sox | 628 | 24 | 102 | .264 | 26 |
| 2016 | Red Sox | 672 | 31 | 113 | .318 | 26 |
| 2015 | Red Sox | 597 | 18 | 77 | .291 | 21 |
| 2014 | Red Sox | 189 | 5 | 18 | .291 | 7 |
A career .303 hitter, Betts faces a huge challenge to match last season’s batting average, but will remain a huge catalyst in Red Sox’ bid to repeat as World Series champions.
If healthy and secure in his place hitting second in the batting order, Betts is a solid bet to top .300 this season.
Pick: OVER .300 (-115)
Mookie Betts Projected 2019 Runs
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 110.5 | -115 |
| Under 110.5 | -115 |
What Helped Bond Red Sox Stars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez? Hitting, Of Course https://t.co/biTFFubI2v pic.twitter.com/1tWSpjJvl9
— 18d.Media (@18dMedia) October 23, 2018
Betts has scored over 120 runs twice in the past three years and will continue to be a scoring threat whenever he is on base this season, regardless of where he fits in the lineup. Likely the easiest pick to make here, as long as he stays healthy.
Pick: OVER 110.5 (-115)
Mookie Betts Projected 2019 Home Runs
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 27.5 | -115 |
| Under 27.5 | -115 |
Betts connected on 32 home runs last season in just 520 at-bats, which marked the lowest number of at-bats in his four seasons as a Red Sox regular.
The swing adjustment that helped Mookie Betts reach new heights.https://t.co/7JySOJslxi (via @alexspeier)
— Boston Globe Sports (@BGlobeSports) September 21, 2018
Once again, it has been commitment to his craft combined with advice from coaches and Martinez that helped Betts make the adjustments that transformed him at the plate. That includes his power at the plate, but with an increased responsibility to move runners, matching last season’s home run total may be too much to ask.
Pick: UNDER 27.5 (-115)
Mookie Betts Projected 2019 RBI
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 90.5 | -115 |
| Under 90.5 | -115 |
A move out of the lead off position should provide Betts with more opportunities to cash in runners. Over the past three seasons, Betts has averaged .438 with runners in scoring position, and averaged 114 RBI per season during that stretch.
Decision looms on Pedroia's Opening Day status https://t.co/y1EMXMFTXi via @MLB
— Ian Browne (@IanMBrowne) March 16, 2019
While Andrew Benintendi looks like a strong candidate to lead off on Opening Day, things could change with the highly anticipated return of second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Regardless of who is leading off, Betts should enjoy a bump in the number of plate appearances with runners on.
Pick: OVER 90.5 (-115)
Mookie Betts Projected 2019 Stolen Bases
| Total | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 25.5 | -115 |
| Under 25.5 | -115 |
Betts stole 30 bases on a career-high 36 attempts last season, and will continue to create havoc on the bases this season. Over the past three years, Betts has averaged over 27 stolen bases per season, including 26 two years ago after undergoing offseason knee surgery. Betts is also likely to see a rise in bases on balls, providing him with additional opportunities to pad his stolen base total.
Stealing 30 stolen bases again might be tough, and the odds are against any MLB player racking up 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases, as Betts did last season. However, topping 25 stolen bags is in reach this season.
Pick: OVER 25.5 (-115)
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
