San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants: Preview & Prediction

Hunter Pence in the on-deck circle.
Giants right fielder Hunter Pence is batting just .194 so far this season, one of San Francisco's many underperforming hitters. Photo by Andy Rusch (flickr) [CC License].

The San Francisco Giants have a great chance to get their offense in gear tonight when they visit Bryan Mitchell and the San Diego Padres at Petco Park (10:10 PM ET). Bruce Bochy will send righty Chris Stratton to the mound for his third start of the year.

The opening odds, key stats, betting trends, weather forecast, and score prediction are below.

Opening Odds

MONEYLINE RUNLINE O/U RUNS
GIANTS  (-134) GIANTS –1.5 (+120) OVER 8.0 (-120)
PADRES (+124) PADRES +1.5 (+100) UNDER 8.0 (+100)

The Giants tried to revamp their offense in the offseason after finishing second-last in the NL in runs scored last year. Adding the likes of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria hasn’t helped so far and the team is currently dead-last in the NL in scoring (33 runs; 3.0 runs/game).

They did manage seven runs last time Stratton was on the bump though, edging the Dodgers 7-5 in extra innings. Stratton went five innings, giving up four hits, four walks, and two earned runs, lowering his ERA to 4.35 on the year.

[Mitchell] has fanned just one batter [in 10.2 innings] while walking nine.

The Padres’ bats haven’t been much more potent, averaging a meager 3.5 runs/game, and with Mitchell on the hill, that could be an issue. The former Yankee has a 1.88 WHIP through 10.2 innings of work and has fanned just one batter while walking nine.

Somehow he didn’t surrender a run in 5.2 innings of work last time out in Houston, despite giving up three hits and six walks. That followed an eight-run, three-walk, five-earned run performance at home against Colorado in his first start.

Team Stats

PADRES
VS
GIANTS
4-9 (1-6 Home) RECORD 5-6 (2-2 Away)
Bryan Mitchell: 0-1, 4.22 ERA PROBABLE STARTER Chris Stratton: 0-1, 4.35 ERA
 .350 BA, .809 OPS (in 20 at-bats) LINEUP VS OPPONENT STARTER .333 BA, .667 OPS (in 3 at-bats)
2.41 (6th in MLB) BULLPEN ERA 2.86 (10th in MLB)
.697 (18th in MLB) TEAM OPS .646 (22nd in MLB)
 12-7 (6-3 Home)  2017 HEAD-TO-HEAD 7-12 (3-6 Away)

Betting Results & Trends

PADRES  TREND GIANTS
Lost 1 WIN/LOSS STREAK Lost 1
2-3 LAST 5 2-3
6-7 RUNLINE RECORD 6-5
5-7-1 OVER/UNDER SPLIT 6-5
Under 2 OVER/UNDER STREAK Over 2

 

The Giants lost the rubber match of their series with Arizona last night (7-3), but the last time Stratton was on the hill, they put on one of their better offensive performances of the season against the Dodgers.

 

On the San Diego side of things, all anyone wants to talk about after last night’s Padres vs Rockies game — which ended 6-4 for Colorado — is the haymakers that followed when Luis Perdomo tossed at Nolan Arenado.

Weather Forecast at Opening Pitch

TEMPERATURE 64°
HUMIDITY 53%
WIND SPEED NW 13 MPH  (in from left field)
P.O.P. 1%

Score Prediction

GIANTS 6
PADRES 5

The Padres are, once again, languishing in the NL West basement, a spot they’re expected to occupy all season, precisely because they rely on guys like Mitchell in their rotation. With a 1.64 career WHIP and just 65 strikeouts in 109 innings of work, Mitchell is a good bet to get touched up every time he’s on the mound.

It’s understandable to be wary of this San Francisco offense, especially in a pitcher’s park like Petco, but McCutchen (.231 BA) is trending in the right direction, Posey (.345 BA, .424 OBP) is having a great season, and the team as a whole mustered a respectable 14 hits in its last two games. This won’t be the worst offense in the NL all year, and it should start its ascension from the basement tonight.

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth. He gave that up to do something much more practical: become a lawyer. He gave that up to do something much more enjoyable: write about sports. SBD's lead odds-maker/number cruncher since 2014, Sascha writes and edits about anything and everything you can possibly put odds on. He's happiest when those things are baseball, hockey, football, and basketball, though. In his spare time, Sascha likes watching Jeopardy with his wife, building train sets with his son, and pretending he's still an athlete, not necessarily in that order.