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Padres vs Mets Game 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in MLB Baseball

Updated Oct 6, 2022 · 4:57 PM PDT

Mets players celebrating a win
Oct 5, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets catcher James McCann (33) celebrates with second baseman Jeff McNeil (1) and third baseman Mark Vientos (27) after defeating the Washington Nationals at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Padres and Mets meet at Citi Field in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card series on Friday, October 7th
  • The Friars are in the postseason for the second time in three years, while the Amazins are in the playoffs for the first time since 2016
  • Read below for the Padres vs Mets odds and betting preview

The San Diego Padres (89-73, 45-36 away) face the New York Mets (101-61, 54-27 home) on Friday at Citi Field in the first game of the NL Wild Card round. First pitch is scheduled for 8:07 pm ET.

San Diego skipper Bob Melvin sends  to the mound, while New York skipper Buck Showalter counters with Max Scherzer.

Padres vs Mets Odds

Team Runline Moneyline Total
San Diego Padres TBD +165 TBD
New York Mets TBD -200 TBD

Odds as of October 5th at Barstool Sportsbook. Claim this week’s Barstool Sportsbook promo code.  

The #3-seed Mets are -200 betting favorites in Game 1, while #6-seed San Diego, is a +165 road underdog.



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San Diego vs New York Probable Pitchers

Melvin will name his Game 1 starter on Thursday. For what it’s worth, possible starter Yu Darvish allowed only one run against the Mets over 14 innings in two starts this season. The back-end of San Diego’s staff seems a little out of sorts, having hit five San Francisco hitters over the last three games of 2022.

Another issue for the Padres is their closer. Josh Hader has seven of his 36 saves with San Diego. He has a 7.31 ERA since being traded from Milwaukee, but has an 0.79 ERA over his last 11 1/3 innings.

Meantime, Showalter’s club was 14-9 in Scherzer’s 2022 regular season turns and the Mets have dropped four of the last six outings the three-time Cy Young Award winner has started. Mad Max was on the losing end of a 4-1 decision against San Diego on July 22nd that saw him go six innings while allowing five hits, two earned runs and a walk while striking out eight. Of course, the playoffs are a different story.

The future Hall of Famer owns a 7-6 record and 3.22 ERA in 26 playoff appearances (21 starts). He’s struck out 160 batters over 128.2 innings.

Darvish vs Scherzer Stats

Yu Darvish
Max Scherzer
16-8 Record 11-5
3.10 ERA 2.29
3.54 xERA 2.87
25.6% K% 30.6%

The Padres enter this series having lost two of three games to the Giants, but are generally healthy offensively. The glaring absence, of course, will be Fernando Tatis Jr — who is serving a PED suspension while recovering from shoulder surgery. On the pitching side, San Diego will be without possible long reliever Mike Clevinger — who was placed on the injured list Wednesday with an unspecified illness. Manny Machado is the headliner offensively, finishing the regular season hitting .298 with 32 homers and 102 RBI.

Five other Padres finished the season with double-digit home run totals, including All-Star Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham

Meantime, the Mets rebounded from a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves over the final weekend of the regular season to lose the NL East by sweeping the Nationals in a three-game sweep to close out 2022 in style. New York outscored Washington 21-4 in the series, with Jeff McNeil going 3-for-8 in the first two games then sitting out most of Wednesday’s game for good reason.

Pete Alonso will likely fall short of winning the NL MVP. But the slugger certainly put up MVP-type numbers this season, batting .271 and crushing 40 big flies to go along with an NL-best 131 RBI.

New York has +1100 odds to win the Fall Classic, while San Diego is at +2500 in the World Series odds.

SD vs NYM Last 10 Meetings

Date Home Team Away Team Score
7/24/22 Mets Padres NYM, 8-5
7/23/22 Mets Padres SD, 2-1
7/22/22 Mets Padres SD, 4-1
6/8/22 Padres Mets SD, 13-2
6/7/22 Padres Mets SD, 7-0
6/6/22 Padres Mets NYM, 11-5
6/13/21 Mets Padres SD, 7-3
6/12/21 Mets Padres NYM, 4-1
6/11/21 Mets Padres NYM, 3-2
6/6/21 Padres Mets NYM, 6-2

Padres vs Mets Prediction

Scherzer is 6-3 with a 2.88 ERA in 17 career starts against the Padres, with 150 strikeouts over 109.1 innings. He’s a big-game pitcher and knows the Mets need a two-game sweep of the Padres to have the best shot at knocking off the Dodgers in the NLCS to keep a Scherzer-deGrom 1-2 punch intact.

San Diego has nothing to lose and will play loose. But Mad Max — in prime time in the Big Apple — will be too much to overcome in Game 1.

Pick: Mets ML (-200)


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