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Phillies vs Astros Game 6 Odds & Picks

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated Nov 4, 2022 · 6:00 PM PDT

Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez walks to the dugout
Oct 29, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) walks to the dugout after a pitching change during the seventh inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in game two of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Astros are -141 home favorites over the Phillies in World Series Game 6 on Saturday night
  • Zack Wheeler (13-9, 2.80) will start for the Phillies against Astros lefty Framber Valdez (19-6, 2.70)
  • A look at the Phillies vs Astros matchup and odds can be found below with a pick

The Houston Astros will try to close out the World Series when they host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 at 8:03 p.m. ET Saturday at Minute Maid Park.

The Astros (116-58/60-27 home) took a three-games-to-two lead in the best-of-seven series Thursday night with a 3-2 victory in Philadelphia. The Astros have won 12 of their last 14 games and 14 of their last 17.

The Phillies (98-80/45-44 road) lost for just the fifth time in their last 16 games.

 Phillies vs Astros Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Philadelphia Phillies +120 +1.5 (-200) Over 7 (-108)
Houston Astros -141 -1.5 (-160) Under 7 (-109)

Odds as of November 4th at Barstool Sportsbook. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code.

The Astros are -141 favorites on the moneyline, giving them a 58.51% implied win probability.



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It will be interesting to see if Major League Baseball allows the Astros to open the Minute Maid Park roof. The temperature is expected to be 70 at first pitch with a low of 61, mostly clear and wind from the north at 5 mph.

Phillies vs Astros Probable Pitchers

Zack Wheeler (13-9, 2.80) is scheduled to pitch for the Phillies against left-hander Framber Valdez (19-6, 2.70) in a rematch of Game 2. Both will be working on six days of rest.

Wheeler vs Valdez

Zack Wheeler
Framber Valdez
13-9 Record 19-6
2.80 ERA 2.70
3.10 xERA 3.31
0.99 WHIP 1.14
4.78 SO/W 2.99

Wheeler is 1-2 with a 2.67 ERA in five postseason starts this year, the first time he has ever appeared in the playoffs.

However, Wheeler struggled in Game 2 while taking the loss and admitted he was experiencing arm fatigue. He got touched for five runs (four earned) and six hits in five innings with three walks and three strikeouts.

That outing marked the first time Wheeler had faced the Astros in his career.

In 17 road starts this season, Wheeler is 7-6 with a 3.53 ERA. He has a 9-3 record and 2.15 ERA in 19 starts at night. The Phillies are 17-14 when Wheeler pitches.

Valdez has been outstanding this postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.43 ERA in three postseason starts. He has a 6-2 career record in the playoffs with a 3.59 ERA in 12 games (11 starts).

In Game 2, Valdez limited the Phillies to one run on four hits over 6.1 innings to get the win. He struck out nine and walked two while improving to 2-0 with a 0.79 against Philadelphia in two career starts.

Valdez, who has +25000 American League Cy Young Award odds, is 9-4 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season in 17 starts. At night, he is 13-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 21 starts. The Astros are 24-10 when Valdez gets the ball.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Phillies Batters Batting Average vs Framber Valdez
Jean Segura .286
Rhys Hoskins .250
Matt Vierling .250
J.T. Realmuto .200
Brandon Marsh .182
Nick Castellanos .143
Kyle Schwarber .111
Alec Bohm .000
Bryce Harper .000
Nick Maton .000
Garrett Stubbs .000
Edmundo Sosa .000
Astros Batters Batting Average vs Zack Wheeler
Chas McCormick 1.000
Jose Altuve .667
Yordan Alvarez .500
Alex Bregman .333
Jeremy Pena .333
Trey Mancini .250
Martin Maldonado .000
Christian Vazquez .000
Yuli Gurriel .000
Kyle Tucker .000
Aledmys Diaz .000

The Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber is just 1 for 9 against Valdez and Brandon Marsh is 2 for 11 (.182) with six strikeouts. The Astros’ Martin Maldonado is hitless in five at-bats versus Wheeler.

Phillies vs Astros Betting Outlook

Rookie Jeremy Pena drove in two runs to lead the Astros to victory in Game 5 and the lead in the Series.

Pena hit an RBI single in the top of the first inning and the go-ahead solo home run in the fourth that snapped a 1-1 tie. He finished with three hits and has +5000 AL Rookie of the Year odds.

Jose Altuve had two hits and two runs scored for the Astros.

First baseman Yuli Gurriel left the game in the eighth inning with right knee discomfort. He is considered day-to-day.

The Phillies got two hits each from Alec Bohm and Jean Segura. Kyle Schwarber led off the bottom of the first inning with a home run a night after the Phillies were no-hit.

In addition to being up 3-2 in this series, the Astros took two of three from the Phillies to end the regular season at Minute Maid Park.

Phillies vs Astros Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
11/3/22 Phillies Astros HOU, 3-2
11/2/22 Phillies Astros HOU, 5-0
11/1/22 Phillies Astros PHI, 7-0
10/29/22 Astros Phillies HOU, 5-0
10/28/22 Astros Phillies PHI, 6-5
10/5/22 Astros Phillies HOU, 3-2
10/4/22 Astros Phillies HOU, 10-0
10/3/22 Astros Phillies PHI, 3-0
7/26/17 Phillies Astros PHI, 9-0
7/25/17 Phillies Astros HOU, 5-0

Game 6 Phillies vs Astros Prediction

Valdez has been outstanding in the postseason and the Astros have played at a .706 clip in his starts this year. The left-hander is the way to go here to clinch the Series, especially with Wheeler’s health in question.

Pick: Astros ML (-141)


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