Predictions & Betting Splits for Red Sox vs Orioles on Apr 25

• The Baltimore Orioles seek a series clinching win Saturday as they host the Boston Red Sox
• Boston has lost four in a row and their pitching was shelled in the 10-3 opener Friday
• Read below for the my Red Sox vs Orioles odds, predictions and betting splits

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The Boston Red Sox are staggering right now, having lost four straight and seven of their last 10, as they try to get back into their series with the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday.

After the O’s routed them 10-3 in the opener, it’s not a great combination for the Red Sox, who send out struggling Garrett Crochet against a team that’s been a Top 7 scoring team in baseball the past week.

The books tend to agree, pegging Baltimore as home favorites in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes at 12:05pm ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Red Sox vs Orioles Picks & Predictions

• Best Bet: Orioles ML (-105 at bet365)

This is far from a glamour pitching matchup, as lefties Garrett Crochet and Trevor Rogers square off Saturday.

Boston’s Crochet has struggled to find his footing, laboring to a bloated 7.88 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP over 24.0 innings. More concerning is his tendency to give up the long ball, surrendering 1.87 home runs per nine innings.

He faces a lineup that has scored at least seven runs in each of its last three wins. The Orioles have already mashed 32 home runs this season, led by Gunnar Henderson’s eight.

Crochet could also be suffering from terrible luck. His 3.61 xFIP is drastically lower than his ERA, highlighting that his elite strikeout metrics (25.9 K%) are intact. If he mitigates the disastrous home runs, his upside makes him dangerous, but his recent struggles to record outs without yielding runs is a big issue.

Trevor Rogers vs Garrett Crochet

Despite getting roughed up in each of his last two starts, Rogers has been a stabilizing force overall for the O’s this season, utilizing strong command to issue just 2.51 walks per nine innings while keeping the ball in the yard (0.94 HR/9).

His 3.71 FIP indicates he has pitched slightly better than his surface-level ERA suggests.

Rogers also has an elite offense at Camden Yards to support him. The O’s are putting up 5.23 runs per game at home, and they rank second in the league in home OPS (.819) and fourth in home batting average (.274).

Boston manages just 4.08 runs per game on the road, weighed down by a sluggish .676 OPS. However, they rank second in the league in average exit velocity on the road (90.2 mph). In simpler terms, Boston is making good contact, but struggling to turn those knocks into meaningful run production.

Baltimore posts a 66.7% win rate (8-4 straight up) as the betting favorite this season, while Boston has failed to secure an upset victory this year, going an abysmal 0-6 straight up as an underdog. Look for that trend to continue Saturday.

Red Sox vs Orioles Odds and Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change

The betting market prices for this clash originally featured a dead heat on the moneyline at -110 on both sides. Since then, FanDuel has moved Boston to +100 to win outright, while bet365 has kept the -110 odds on their moneyline.

The BoSox have significantly better juice if they can cover the runline at -1.5, which pays out at +165, while Baltimore, getting 1.5 runs, pays out at a less enticing -190 odds.

Over bettors should go to DraftKings, where the line is still 7.5 runs, a half-run less than the total at BetMGM, sitting at eight runs with -110 odds.

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, and the public knows what it wants. They are hammering Baltimore at +1.5 the runline, with a whopping 93% of the money and 82% of the bets taking the Orioles.

The same is true on the total, where the public is even more convinced at the Over 7.5 runs, with 94% of the money and 93% of the bets expecting to see at least eight runs scored.

The moneyline is the only area that’s even remotely close to even, as Boston is getting 51% of the money and 36% of the bets to win outright, while 64% of all wagers but just 49% of the money likes the Orioles to win.