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Rays vs Blue Jays Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sep. 15)

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Sep 14, 2022 · 7:19 PM PDT

Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Sep 13, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) pours the water bucket on Toronto Blue Jays center fielder George Springer (4) against the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Toronto Blue Jays are -145 home favorites over the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday, September 15
  • Tampa Bay is 1-4 straight up over the past five games, while Toronto is 6-9 SU over its past 15 home games
  • Get the Rays vs Blue Jays picks and odds, below

The battle for positioning in the American League Wild Card race between the Toronto Blue Jays (81-62, 41-30 home) and Tampa Bay Rays (79-63, 32-39 away) appears to be changing daily.

As these two AL East rivals close out a five-game series at Toronto, it’s the Blue Jays who have surged to top spot in this battle. That’s thanks to a 3-1 performance thus far in this set.

It’s the first time in a year that the Blue Jays have won a series from the Rays, and oddsmakers are liking what they are seeing. Toronto is a -145 home favorite entering the series finale. The Blue Jays are a disappointing 24-43 against the runline as a home favorite this season.

Rays vs Blue Jays Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Tampa Bay Rays +122 +1.5 (-170) O 7.5 (-110)
Toronto Blue Jays -145 -1.5 (+143) U 7.5 (-110)

Odds as of September 15 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get Caesars Sportsbook bonus code.

At moneyline odds of -145, the Blue Jays have an implied probability of victory of 59.18% in the MLB betting line. A successful $10 wager on Toronto would create a payout of $16.90.

 

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First pitch at Rogers Centre is set for 3:07 pm ET on Thursday, September 15. The weather forecast is calling for clouds with 4 mph wind and a temperature of 66 degrees.

The MLB pennant odds show Toronto as the +600 third choice to capture the AL flag, while Tampa Bay is the fifth betting choice at +1400. In the World Series odds,  the Blue Jays are at +1400 and the Rays at +2800.

Tampa Bay vs Toronto Probable Pitchers

In late July, Rays left-hander Shane McClanahan was the favorite in the AL Cy Young Award odds. He’s since slid to a distant third in this betting line at +3000.

The southpaw hasn’t posted a win since August 13. McClanahan will be returning from the 15-day IL for this start. He was a late scratch from his August 30 start due to left shoulder impingement, but is in Thursday’s MLB lineup for the Rays.

Among MLB pitchers, McClanahan ranks in the top 4% in wOBA (.234), among the top 5% in hard hit percentage (30.2), in the top 6% in xERA (2.55) and xwOBA (.250) and in the top 7% in strikeout percentage (32.5). However, McClanahan is rated in the bottom 4% in Max EV (116.2).

McClanahan’s last road win was a 6-2 verdict over Toronto on July 2. In four career starts against the Blue Jays, the lefty is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA.

McClanahan vs Gausman Stats

Shane McClanahan
VS
Kevin Gausman
11-5 Record 12-9
2.20 ERA 3.31
2.55 xERA 3.49
0.86 WHIP 1.25
6.07 SO/W Ratio 7.46

Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman is 4-0 since August 19. At 10.6, Gausman is averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine innings for the fourth successive season. However, he’s allowed five home runs over his past 18 innings of work.

Gausman leads all AL hurlers in FIP (2.28) and with a 7.46 strikeouts/walks ratio. He rates among the top 2% of MLB pitchers in bases on balls percentage (3.8). However, Like McClanahan, Gausman is ranked in the bottom 4% in Max EV (116.6).

Gausman is a pedestrian 4-6 with a 4.48 ERA in 13 home starts. Each of his past four losses have come at Rogers Centre. Five of Gausman’s last six wins were road decisions.

In three starts against the Rays this season, he’s 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA. In 20 career appearances against Tampa Bay, including 18 starts, Gausman is 8-7 with a 3.61 ERA.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Blue Jays Batters Batting Average vs McClanahan Rays Batters Batting Average vs Gausman
Matt Chapman .286 Yandy Diaz 1.000
Santiago Espinal .286 Manuel Margot .333
Vladimir Guerrero Jr .333 David Peralta .261
Teoscar Hernandez .250 Rene Pinto 1.000
George Springer .333 Taylor Walls .333

Toronto’s George Springer is 2-for-6 (.333) with a homer and two RBI against McClanahan. Matt Chapman is 2-for-7 (2.86) with solo homer. Santiago Espinal is also 2-for-7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr is 3-for-9 (.333) with an RBI.

Tampa Bay’s Yandy Diaz and Rene Pinto are both 1-for-1 (1.000) when facing Gausman. Taylor Walls (2-for-6) and Manuel Margot (1-for-3) are both batting .333. Margot has driven in a run. David Peralta is 6-for-23 (.261) with three RRI,

Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction

Tampa Bay is fourth among AL clubs with 58 wins against right-handed starting pitchers. The Rays pitching staff is third in the AL in starting pitching ERA (3.36) and fourth in both WHIP (1.14) and overall staff ERA (3.36).

The Blue Jays are second in the AL in hits (1,271), batting average (.261) and comeback wins (38). Toronto is also third outfield assists (26) and walks allowed per nine innings (2.58). The Jays are fourth in slugging percentage (.427). But they’ve got just 17 wins against lefty starters.

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Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML (+122)

 

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