Nationals’ 2018 World Series Odds Drop as Washington Falls to 4th in NL East

• The Nationals have the sixth worst run differential in the National League. Can they bounce back after their slow start?
• Will Bryce Harper get the protection he needs once Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon return to the line-up?
• Can Boston continue its red-hot start after enjoying the best April in franchise history?

There’s a crisis going on in Washington, and for once it has nothing to do with Donald Trump.

The Nationals have lost six of their last ten games and find themselves in fourth place in the NL East. It’s an unfamiliar spot for the defending division champs, who have averaged 92.5 wins over the last six seasons and have advanced to the League Division Series four times during that span.

Vegas has taken note of Washington’s struggles and made the necessary adjustments. The team’s odds to win the 2018 World Series have climbed from +1100 on April 17th to +1300 on April 30th across a number of top online betting sites. The Nationals are currently available as short as +1200 and as long as +1400.

How does a perennial contender like Washington suddenly turn into a cellar dweller? It begins with injuries. Second baseman Daniel Murphy has yet to suit up in 2018 as he recovers from knee surgery, third baseman Anthony Rendon has been sidelined with a toe contusion, and center fielder Adam Eaton has been on the shelf since early April with a bone bruise in his left ankle.

All three players are critical to the Nationals’ success and the offense has suffered greatly in their absence. Washington presently ranks 14th in total bases and OPS, 16th in batting average, 17th in runs and RBI, and 18th in slugging percentage.

Their absence is a double whammy of sorts, as it means that opposing teams can now pitch around Bryce Harper with impunity. The five-time All-Star is seeing fewer hittable pitches than at any other time in his career and is hitting just .247 as a result. His league-leading 38 walks are nice, but Washington needs Harper to clear the fences to have a chance to squeak out wins.

The Nationals have also been struggling mightily in late game situations. Their patchwork bullpen is 1-7 with a 4.80 ERA and is giving up 1.25 home runs per nine innings. The biggest offender thus far has been veteran right-hander Ryan Madson, who has surrendered 19 hits in 14 innings and has already blown two saves. Washington’s pen was an ongoing issue last year as well, but it could be the team’s undoing in 2018.

I regret to inform you the Washington Nationals bullpen is at it again

— Scott Coleman (@scottcoleman55) April 28, 2018

The Nationals aren’t the only team whose odds have changed. Here are the biggest risers and fallers from April 17th to April 30th.

Biggest Risers

Things couldn’t be going much better for the Red Sox, who recently wrapped up their most successful April in the team’s 118-year history. The Fightin’ Kellys have already reeled off a pair of eight-game winning streaks and currently find themselves three games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East.

Five players are hitting .280 or better and veteran backstop Francisco Cervelli is one of four Pirates with 16-plus RBI.

Many pundits wrote off the Pirates after the team shipped out Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen in the offseason, but Pittsburgh is still chugging along at five games above .500 on May 1st. The secret to their success has been excellent run production. The Pirates are third in the National League in runs per game and are getting contributions one-through-nine. Five players are hitting .280 or better and new import Corey Dickerson is one of four Pirates with 16-plus RBI.

Biggest Fallers

Vegas has been underwhelmed by the Cubs, who spent much of April looking up at the division-leading Pirates. Part of the problem has been Chicago’s precarious lack of power as the Cubbies have gone yard just 25 times in their first 26 games. That simply won’t cut it for a line-up featuring high-priced sluggers like Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward.

The Angels have fallen back to earth after enjoying their best start since 1979. LA has now lost seven of its last ten games and finds itself behind the Astros and Mariners in the highly competitive AL West. The most glaring issue has been the rotation, which sports a 4.13 ERA and has been burning through starters at a dangerously fast rate.

Be sure to check out our 2018 World Series Odds Tracker to see how each team’s odds fluctuate as the season unfolds.