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Yankees vs Red Sox Odds & Predictions for Sunday Night Baseball (June 18)

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 17, 2023 · 10:57 PM PDT

Brayan Bello throws pitch
Jun 11, 2023; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello (66) pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-USA TODAY Sports
  • The New York Yankees are +116 underdogs vs the Boston Red Sox when they wrap up their series Sunday
  • The pitching matchup features New York’s Luis Severino vs Boston’s Brayan Bello
  • Don’t miss the latest Yankees vs Red Sox picks and starting pitchers below

Rain was about the only thing that could slow down the bats of the Boston Red Sox, postponing their game with the New York Yankees Saturday.

Now the American League East rivals will play a day-night doubleheader in Beantown to close out their set.

New York enters the day having lost three out of four to the Red Sox so far on the season.

Game 2 of the doubleheader will close out the Sunday (June 18) slate as part of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. First pitch from Fenway Park will go at 7pm ET.

Yankees vs Red Sox Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
New York Yankees +116 +1.5 (-182) Ov 9.0 (-122)
Boston Red Sox -136 -1.5 (+150) Un 9.0 (+100)

Boston is the betting favorite, pegged as -136 on the moneyline in the MLB odds, an expected win probability of 57.63%. The game features a total of 9.0 runs.

Aside from Friday’s 15-5 BoSox thrashing of the Bombers, these two have played each other fairly tight, with no team surpassing three runs in the other three contests.

At 18-14 away from the Bronx, New York is tied for the 3rd-most road wins in the majors. Boston is 19-18 at home entering Sunday, tied for the fewest home wins with Toronto in the AL East.

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Odds as of June 17 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s FanDuel review or another one of North America’s top sports betting sites.

Probable Pitchers

Luis Severino will be making just his sixth start of the season for the Yankees, looking for his first win of the campaign.

He’s had a forgettable June, giving up 16 earned runs in three starts, with an ERA over 10 for the month.

Severino last pitched against the Mets, and was was yanked after just 4.1 innings, surrendering seven hits and five earned runs. He walked three and struck out four. About the only good news out of this was New York was able to win the game against he Mets 8-7.

In 15 career appearances against Boston (13 starts), Severino has a 5-6 record with a 3.97 ERA across 77 innings of work.

Severino vs Bello Stats

Luis Severino
VS
Brayan Bello
0-1 Record 3-4
6.48 ERA 3.78
1.48 WHIP 134
.339 OBA .316
2.20 SO/W Ratio 2.88

Boston counters with righty Brayan Bello, who is trying to find his way back to the win column. In his last four starts, Bello has lost three.

He had a no-decision in the last outing, however, against these same Yankees, as he tied a season-best by going seven innings, giving up three hits and two earned runs while striking out three. Boston won the game 3-2 in 10 innings.

In three career stats against the Yanks, he’s gone 0-2 with a 1.50 ERA, striking out 13 and walking five over 18 innings.

New York Pitching vs Boston Hitting

The Yankees come into this one with the 4th-best team ERA in baseball at 3.73, and holding teams to a minuscule .229 batting average, which ranks third. They also have WHIP of 1.22, tied with the Padres for fifth.

Boston has one of the best hitting lineups in the bigs. The Red Sox are inside the top seven in hitting, slugging percentage and OPS. They also rank seventh in runs scored at 5.04 per game.

 

New York has been positively average at the plate, hitting just .233 (8th-worst) and a .717 OPS, good for 16th. They are, however, still among the best long-ball lineups in the majors, tied for fourth with 105 dingers on the season.

They’ll look to batter a Red Sox pitching staff that’s 23rd with a 4.51 ERA, with teams hitting .253 against them, tied for the 10th-best success rate in the bigs.

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Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction

Though he’s yet to earn a win agains the Yankees in his career, Bello has acquitted himself nicely. If Boston can take advantage of a shaky Severino, this could be the breakthrough start for the second-year righty.

Yankees vs Red Sox 2023 H2H Results

Date Away Team Home Team Result
June 16 Red Sox Yankees BOS, 15-5
June 11 Red Sox Yankees BOS, 3-2
June 10 Red Sox Yankees NYY, 3-1
June 9 Yankees Red Sox BOS, 3-2

New York’s little skid against the Red Sox overshadows the fact the Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 in this head-to-head.

Let’s target the total. For Boston, the under has gone 12-2-2 in their last 16 second half starts in a double-header, while the under has hit in four of the last five between these teams.

After a long day of baseball, look for this one to stay low scoring and close.

Pick: UNDER 9 runs (+100)

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