Yankees, Mets’ Win Percentages Are Much Higher Than Advanced Projection Models

Noah Syndergaard delivering a pitch
Noah Syndergaard will miss the 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery, putting the Mets behind the eight-ball when it comes to hitting the over on their win percentage. Photo by Arturo Pardavila III [Wikipedia].
  • With the start date and length of the 2020 season in question, sportsbooks have shifted from win totals to win percentage over/unders
  • The Dodgers, Astros and Yankees finished 2019 with at least a .634 winning percentage
  • With the shift in structure, who now provides the best value for bettors?

When it comes to baseball, adjustments will be taking place everywhere from roster size to season length. Sportsbooks are no different, adjusting the MLB win totals to win percentages.

Shifting from totals to percentages presents a different kind of value, but it also introduces a ton of variables.

Either way, the intrigue will be there whenever Opening Day for the 2020 season is.

2020 MLB Win Percentage

AL Teams 2020 Win % O/U NL Teams 2020 Win % O/U
Baltimore Orioles 35.0% (-110o/-110u) Arizona Diamondbacks 51.5% (-110o/-110u)
Boston Red Sox 52.0% (-110o/-110u) Atlanta Braves 56.0% (-110o/-110u)
Chicago White Sox 52.0% (-110o/110u) Chicago Cubs 53.0% (-110o/-110u)
Cleveland Indians 52.5% (-110o/-110u) Cincinnati Reds 52.0% (-110o/-110u)
Detroit Tigers 35.0% (-110o/-110u) Colorado Rockies 45.5% (-110o/-110u)
Houston Astros 58.5% (-110o/-110u) Los Angeles Dodgers 62.5% (-110o/-110u)
Kansas City Royals  40.5% (-110o/-110u) Miami Marlins 40.0% (-110o/-110u)
Los Angeles Angels 53.0% (-110o/-110u) Milwaukee Brewers 51.5% (-110o/-110u)
Minnesota Twins  57.0% (-110o/-110u) New York Mets 53.5% (-110o/-110u)
New York Yankees 62.5% (-110o/-110u) Philadelphia Phillies 52.5%  (-110o/-110u)
Oakland Athletics 55.5% (-110o/-110u) Pittsburgh Pirates 42.5% (-110o/-110u)
Seattle Mariners 41.5% (-110o/-110u) San Diego Padres 51.5% (-110o/-110u)
Tampa Bay Rays 56.0% (-110o/-110u) San Francisco Giants 42.5% (-110o/-110u)
Texas Rangers  49.0% (-110o/-110u St. Louis Cardinals 54.0% (-110o/-110u)
Toronto Blue Jays 46.5% (-110o/110u) Washington Nationals 56.0% (-110o/-110u)

Odds taken Apr 21st.

Right now, most of the rumors have been on where Major League Baseball will play its season, with locations in Florida, Arizona, and now Texas being mentioned.

Unfortunately the length of any potential season isn’t being discussed. But let’s do some quick math with three possible options.

In a 120-game season, an MLB win percentage of 60% means 72 wins, while 50% is 60 and 40% is 48. In a 100-game season those numbers drop to 60, 50 and 40, while an 80-game season they drop to 48, 40 and 32.

The Dodgers and Yankees are the only two teams with win percentages over 60%, so let’s start there.

Yankees, Dodgers Favorites in MLB Win Percentage

Over on FanGraphs, the projections for both teams come in at under 60%. The Dodgers are at .597 and the Yankees are at .578.

If we were to side with one team crossing the 60% threshold, New York seems like the better bet.

The Yankees were getting banged up during Spring Training, but by the time the season starts, they could easily be fully healthy. While LA doesn’t have any significant injury woes, their pitching staff is on the older side.

Three of their five projected starters are 30 or older. Re-starting Spring Training could result in a bit of an uneven start to the season.

The Pick: Dodgers UNDER 62.5% (-110)

Predictions Have Mets Overachieving

The New York Mets are another team that finds itself in limbo after receiving some of the worst news possible this spring.

No matter how long the season is, they’ll be missing Noah Syndergaard. Thor is set to have Tommy John surgery.

That leaves a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz, and Michael Wacha.

While it was impossible to match his 2018 season, deGrom is still a back-to-back Cy Young winner. Stroman’s ERA rose by almost a full run following his acquisition from the Blue Jays, but he improved towards the end of the year.

Of the other three, Matz may be the best, but the trio does little to inspire confidence. FanGraphs (52.6%) has the Mets going under. Expect it to be by a more significant margin.

The Pick: Mets UNDER 53.5% (-110)

Padres Could Hit Over in MLB Win Percentage

One intriguing team in a shortened season is the San Diego Padres.

Typically dismissed because of their division and a lack of consistency, a hot start from their youngsters could propel them past FanGraphs’ 51.9% prediction.

Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr could prove a dynamic combo, if Machado rebounds and Tatis stays healthy. Meanwhile, there’s consistency with new acquisition Tommy Pham and potential upside with Trent Grisham, another new face.

Pitching-wise they’re set at the back end with Kirby Yates so the key is getting to the ninth. Chris Paddack should be better in year two, but behind him in the rotation there are questions.

It’s a young rotation with boom or bust potential. It’ll be tight, but I’ll bank on the Padres putting it together.

The Pick: Padres OVER 51.5% (-110)

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.