Yankees, Mets’ Win Percentages Are Much Higher Than Advanced Projection Models
- With the start date and length of the 2020 season in question, sportsbooks have shifted from win totals to win percentage over/unders
- The Dodgers, Astros and Yankees finished 2019 with at least a .634 winning percentage
- With the shift in structure, who now provides the best value for bettors?
When it comes to baseball, adjustments will be taking place everywhere from roster size to season length. Sportsbooks are no different, adjusting the MLB win totals to win percentages.
Shifting from totals to percentages presents a different kind of value, but it also introduces a ton of variables.
Either way, the intrigue will be there whenever Opening Day for the 2020 season is.
2020 MLB Win Percentage
| AL Teams | 2020 Win % O/U | NL Teams | 2020 Win % O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 35.0% (-110o/-110u) | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.5% (-110o/-110u) |
| Boston Red Sox | 52.0% (-110o/-110u) | Atlanta Braves | 56.0% (-110o/-110u) |
| Chicago White Sox | 52.0% (-110o/–110u) | Chicago Cubs | 53.0% (-110o/-110u) |
| Cleveland Indians | 52.5% (-110o/-110u) | Cincinnati Reds | 52.0% (-110o/-110u) |
| Detroit Tigers | 35.0% (-110o/-110u) | Colorado Rockies | 45.5% (-110o/-110u) |
| Houston Astros | 58.5% (-110o/-110u) | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.5% (-110o/-110u) |
| Kansas City Royals | 40.5% (-110o/-110u) | Miami Marlins | 40.0% (-110o/-110u) |
| Los Angeles Angels | 53.0% (-110o/-110u) | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.5% (-110o/-110u) |
| Minnesota Twins | 57.0% (-110o/-110u) | New York Mets | 53.5% (-110o/-110u) |
| New York Yankees | 62.5% (-110o/-110u) | Philadelphia Phillies | 52.5% (-110o/-110u) |
| Oakland Athletics | 55.5% (-110o/-110u) | Pittsburgh Pirates | 42.5% (-110o/-110u) |
| Seattle Mariners | 41.5% (-110o/-110u) | San Diego Padres | 51.5% (-110o/-110u) |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 56.0% (-110o/-110u) | San Francisco Giants | 42.5% (-110o/-110u) |
| Texas Rangers | 49.0% (-110o/-110u | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.0% (-110o/-110u) |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 46.5% (-110o/–110u) | Washington Nationals | 56.0% (-110o/-110u) |
Odds taken Apr 21st.
Right now, most of the rumors have been on where Major League Baseball will play its season, with locations in Florida, Arizona, and now Texas being mentioned.
Unfortunately the length of any potential season isn’t being discussed. But let’s do some quick math with three possible options.
In a 120-game season, an MLB win percentage of 60% means 72 wins, while 50% is 60 and 40% is 48. In a 100-game season those numbers drop to 60, 50 and 40, while an 80-game season they drop to 48, 40 and 32.
The Dodgers and Yankees are the only two teams with win percentages over 60%, so let’s start there.
Yankees, Dodgers Favorites in MLB Win Percentage
Over on FanGraphs, the projections for both teams come in at under 60%. The Dodgers are at .597 and the Yankees are at .578.
If we were to side with one team crossing the 60% threshold, New York seems like the better bet.
The Yankees were getting banged up during Spring Training, but by the time the season starts, they could easily be fully healthy. While LA doesn’t have any significant injury woes, their pitching staff is on the older side.
Clayton Kershaw says this could be the @Dodgers year. I talked with the Kershaw’s as stay home and wait for the return of @MLB @ClaytonKersh22 @KershsChallenge pic.twitter.com/53RFykh2dg
— Liz Habib (@LizHabib) April 18, 2020
Three of their five projected starters are 30 or older. Re-starting Spring Training could result in a bit of an uneven start to the season.
The Pick: Dodgers UNDER 62.5% (-110)
Predictions Have Mets Overachieving
The New York Mets are another team that finds itself in limbo after receiving some of the worst news possible this spring.
No matter how long the season is, they’ll be missing Noah Syndergaard. Thor is set to have Tommy John surgery.
New York Mets starter Noah Syndergaard has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future, sources tell ESPN. The procedure will keep him out until at earliest April 2021 and likely into the summer months.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 24, 2020
That leaves a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz, and Michael Wacha.
While it was impossible to match his 2018 season, deGrom is still a back-to-back Cy Young winner. Stroman’s ERA rose by almost a full run following his acquisition from the Blue Jays, but he improved towards the end of the year.
The #Mets aren’t even playing and they still got Mets’d. It’s unbelievable.
This is what their rotation looks like at the moment:
Jacob deGrom
Marcus Stroman
Steven Matz (can’t be in the bullpen now)
Rick Porcello
Michael WachaJobs earned by default.
— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) March 24, 2020
Of the other three, Matz may be the best, but the trio does little to inspire confidence. FanGraphs (52.6%) has the Mets going under. Expect it to be by a more significant margin.
The Pick: Mets UNDER 53.5% (-110)
Padres Could Hit Over in MLB Win Percentage
One intriguing team in a shortened season is the San Diego Padres.
Typically dismissed because of their division and a lack of consistency, a hot start from their youngsters could propel them past FanGraphs’ 51.9% prediction.
Where does Tommy Pham fit into the #Padres lineup?
Matty V and @Joelsherman1 discuss the reported swap on #HighHeat. pic.twitter.com/ldJ4k775d4
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 6, 2019
Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr could prove a dynamic combo, if Machado rebounds and Tatis stays healthy. Meanwhile, there’s consistency with new acquisition Tommy Pham and potential upside with Trent Grisham, another new face.
Pitching-wise they’re set at the back end with Kirby Yates so the key is getting to the ninth. Chris Paddack should be better in year two, but behind him in the rotation there are questions.
"We've talked about depth and quality, and we feel like we are getting close to that. I feel really confident about the group we have." – AJ Preller on pitching rotation#WinterMeetings pic.twitter.com/m7rh8ufqiV
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) December 9, 2019
It’s a young rotation with boom or bust potential. It’ll be tight, but I’ll bank on the Padres putting it together.
The Pick: Padres OVER 51.5% (-110)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
