- Christian Yelich leads all players with 31 home runs
- Cody Bellinger has been fantastic, but his OPS has declined each month
- Pete Alonso won the 2019 MLB Home Run Derby and could be worth a bet at +350 to finish with the most home runs
Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger are MLB’s current home run leaders with 31 and 30 home runs, respectively. Will Yelich finish the season atop the league in dingers? He’s now at +220 after being listed at +550 earlier in the year.
Bovada has posted props who will lead the Major Leagues in home runs in 2019. Let’s take a look at the best bets.
Odds to Finish With Most Home Runs
|Who Will Hit the Most Home Runs in 2019?||Odds at Bovada|
*Odds taken 07/10/19
Yelich Has Been Incredible
Yelich has been amazing at the plate this season as he’s batting .329 with 31 home runs and 67 RBI. He’s been fairly consistent as he had an impressive month of April where he hit 10 home runs, then he hit seven in May and eight in June.
Yelich had an OPS of 1.219 with 25 home runs in just 256 at-bats after the All-Star break in 2018.
What’s to like about Yelich is that we’ve seen him really ramp up his game after the All-Star break before. In 2018, he had an OPS of .823 with 11 home runs before the All-Star break (in 318 at-bats). After the break, he had an OPS of 1.219 with 25 home runs in just 256 at-bats.
We also saw an uptick in 2017 where he had eight home runs and an OPS of .765 before the break and 10 home runs and an .857 OPS after it. In 2016, he had seven home runs before the break and 14 after it. It feels like we can trust him to have a strong second half.
Bellinger Has Been Fading
Bellinger had an incredible start to the season but some of his numbers have been in decline since. He had a 1.624 OPS in March, 1.348 in April, .998 in May, and .967 in June. Nobody expected him to maintain a 1.3 OPS but it is a bit of a concern when you’re fleshing out and projecting the second-half of the season.
The home run totals have also dipped as he hit one home run in every five at-bats in March, one in 8.9 in April, one in 15.7 in May and one in 13.1 in June. He has three jacks in July, but he’s hitting just .217 so far this month.
The other concern is how he’s faded after All-Star breaks. We don’t have a ton of intel (just two seasons) but in 2018, he had 17 home runs before the break and just eight after. In 2017, he had 25 home runs before the Midsummer Classic and just 14 afterwards.
Pete Alonso Worth a Flier?
Yelich is probably a safe bet, but I’m interested in taking a shot with Pete Alonso, who just won the 2019 MLB Home Run Derby. The New York Mets rookie is having an epic campaign where he’s already crushed 30 home runs. He’s basically the lone highlight for the Mets this season.
Alonso has hit at least nine home runs in April, May and June, so he’s been remarkably consistent. I’m also a little concerned with Yelich’s back as he was forced out of the All-Star Game and has missed a little bit of time with it. I don’t think it’s serious, but the Brewers may want to manage him. That could take away some at-bats from him.
With the prices being the way they are, take a shot with Alonso to be the home run king of 2019 at +350.
Pick: Pete Alonso (+350)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.