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Aldo, Holloway, and Masvidal’s Odds All Improving Ahead of UFC 251

Jorge Masvidal weigh-in
Jorge Masvidal has seen a lot of betting action come his way as he fights Kamaru Usman in the main event of UFC 251. Photo Credit: @UFC (Twitter)
  • Jorge Masvidal has seen most of the betting action on him for UFC 251
  • Will any of these three underdogs pull it off?
  • Read below to see if improved odds are enough for us to back Masvidal, Max Holloway and Jose Aldo

It’s fight day for UFC 251 on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi.

Fight Island has been something many fans have been looking forward to for quite some time. Although many media, fans, and even fighters were picturing a tropical island in the Pacific, it just so happens to be Yas Island. Entering UFC 251, which many pundits are calling the best card of the year, a ton of betting action has already happened.

Not only has there been a lot of betting action happening, but a lot of it has been on the underdogs in Jorge Masvidal, Max Holloway, and Jose Aldo. But, are they worth betting?

UFC 251 Odds

Fighter Monday Odds Saturday Odds
Kamaru Usman -300 -240
Jorge Masvidal +250 +190
Fighter Monday Odds Saturday Odds
Alex Volkanovski -225 -210
Max Holloway +190 +170
Fighter Monday Odds Saturday Odds
Petr Yan -235 -215
Jose Aldo +200 +175

*Updated odds taken July 11

Why Are The Odds Changing?

Ever since the UFC returned on May 9 for UFC 249, sports bettors have been turning their attention to UFC to bet, so it should be no surprise the odds have changed quite a bit for a few of these fights.

First, with Jorge Masvidal, he is a fan-favorite and someone who has been doing it for 17 years. Last year, he went 3-0 including winning the BMF title and a five-second KO win over Ben Askren. For his opponent, in Kamaru Usman, he is someone a lot of fans don’t like for some reason. He is a wrestler who grinds his opponents out, where some fans think his style is boring. I am not surprised at all the odds have changed for this fight, with Usman becoming less of a favorite.

In the second title fight, it was also going to have two-way action. There are people who love the champion Alex Volkanovski and think he is unbeatable. I am one of those people. Others, however, think Holloway failed to show up in their first meeting, where the Aussie won all five rounds. Holloway is also a fan-favorite while Volkanovski is lesser-known. But, the sharp bettors have been laying their money on the champ.

The third title fight, to me, is the closest fight. Yes, Petr Yan is ridiculously good, but so too is Jose Aldo. The King of Rio had success in his bantamweight debut. But, similar to the Volkanovski-Holloway fight, the non-hardcore MMA fans know who Aldo is, while many don’t know who the Russian is, which leads the casual fans to bet the underdog in Aldo.

Usman vs. Masvidal

I love the fact fans are betting on Jorge Masvidal, as Kamaru Usman has been one of my big plays this week and I’ll add more money on him today. I figured “Gamebred” would get the respect by fans, but to have the champ as only a -240 favorite is now music to my ears.

For Masvidal to win this fight he will need to stuff the takedowns and try and knock out Usman early. Yet, he took this fight on six days’ notice, so how his cardio will be is uncertain. I believe Usman will take Masvidal down early and often to grind out a decision win or a late finish. But, for bettors, I still think we will see a lot of Masvidal action this morning. The line could still even come down, but if you were on the fence at -300, you have to pound the -240 line before it is too late.

Pick: Usman (-240)

Volkanovski vs. Holloway

I think the odds for this fight were right to begin with, having Volkanovski as a -225 favorite given how dominant he was in the first fight. But you can never count out Max Holloway — arguably the greatest featherweight of all-time.

Although I like the Volkanovski money line, this fight has always been tough to pull the trigger on. It is very likely this goes the distance, and I am one who doesn’t like to bet on fights where I think the fight goes to the distance. I never like to put my money in the judges’ hands, as we have often seen judges make terrible decisions.

It should also be a competitive stand-up fight, where like the first fight, the rounds were close. I think you stay away from betting it and just enjoy it as a fan.

Yan vs. Aldo

Just like the Usman vs. Masvidal line, I love the fact the casual fans are betting Jose Aldo.

Petr Yan is the real deal and we have seen Aldo be knocked out before and I think that is what happens here. For Aldo to win, he’ll have to make it a dirty fight where he gets inside, clinches the Russian and lands elbows and knees. Yet, I don’t see that happening and I suspect Yan will land the more powerful shots to knock out Aldo inside three rounds.

I like the money line on Yan, and I also like Yan inside the distance, where you can get it at plus money.

Pick: Petr Yan (-215)

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