Submission Underground 13 Odds and Picks

Submission Underground 13
Chael Sonnen's submission grappling organization returns this weekend for its 13th installment.
  • Submission Underground 13 goes Sunday, April 26th at 3:00 pm EST
  • Can Craig Jones continue his streak of dominance? Who represents a compelling underdog bet?
  • Check below for all relevant odds, my analysis, and my predictions for these matches.

Submission Underground 13 returns to our lives this weekend. Chael Sonnen’s professional grappling outfit can be viewed on UFC Fight Pass. Craig Jones looks to continue his unbeaten streak under the SUG banner against UFC veteran/multiple time submission grappling world champion Vinny Magalhães. There are some more familiar names from the world of MMA competing Sunday including UFC stalwart Jake Ellenberger and Bellator MMA competitor Austin Vanderford. They take on Gabriel Checco and Richie Martinez respectively.

Submission Underground 13 Odds

Grappler Odds
Gabriel Checco -300
Jake Ellenberger +200
Grappler Odds
Richie Martinez +130
Austin Vanderford -180
Grappler Odds
Craig Jones -385
Vinny Magalhães +245

All odds taken Apr 22

Checco vs Ellenberger

Submission Underground is always a blast for me to cover especially in these COVID-19 times. Checco is a black belt who has tasted victory under the SUG banner before. He looks to notch another one in the win column, this time taking on UFC veteran Jake Ellenberger. Ellenberg was a stalwart of UFC’s welterweight top 15 for years and is also seasoned on the Submission Underground circuit. I think the man known as Zangief gets his hand raised over Ellenberger inside the covered grain silo in Portland, Oregon that this show will be operating out of.

Pick: Gabriel Checco (-300)

Martinez vs Vanderford

Seeing Vanderford as this much of a favorite genuinely leaves me gobsmacked. Richie Martinez has incredible value here as an underdog bet. Martinez defeated Jake Shields in overtime at Submission Underground 11 and looks to take out another noteworthy name this Sunday. He is a Tenth Planet Jiu-Jitsu black belt and I think will not only edge out a victory but win with style points. Go with Boogeyman on this one over Mr VanZant.

Pick: Richie Martinez (+130)

Jones vs Magalhães

The main event grappling match is intriguing on multiple levels. Jones enters this bout after besting Kevin Casey at SUG 12 via outside heel hook. These two also have a bit of recent history with one another. The two competed against one another in a tag team grappling match that seemed to be universally panned from the grappling community at SUG 11. The onus will be on these two to really push a pace here and make amends to the crowd for their prior interaction largely being a snoozer.

Jones vs Magalhães Tale of the Tape

Jones
VS
Magalhães

Open Guard Favorite position/ technique Closed Guard
Black Belt Belt Ranking Black Belt
Carlos Gracie > Helio Gracie > Carlos Gracie Jr > Jean Jacques Machado / Rigan Machado > John Will > John Simon > Lachlan Giles > Craig Jones Lineage Mitsuyo Maeda > Carlos Gracie > Helio Gracie > Royler Gracie > Vini Aieta > Vinny Magalhães
Polaris 205 lbs Champion (2018)Polaris 185 lbs Champion (2018 / 2019)
2nd Place ADCC World Championship (2019) 3rd Place EBI 11 Invitational (2017) 3rd Place Kasai 2 185lbs Grand Prix (2018) 3rd Place Kasai 5 205lbs Grand Prix (2019)
Accolades ADCC World Championship (2011) IBJJF World Championship NoGi (2007) IBJJF Masters World Championship (2016)3rd Place ADCC World Championship (2011*, 2009**)
* Absolute** Weight and absolute

Magalhaes is a slick BJJ practitioner but the former Ultimate Fighter contestant is biting off a bit more than he can chew here. After all, Jones has memorable victories over MMA veterans ranging from Rumble Johnson to Gilbert Burns to promotional figurehead/ multiple time UFC title challenger Chael Sonnen.

It seems that Magalhaes’ name is next to go on that list. Both will have their own memorable moments but in the end, Jones finishes it inside the distance. I think Craig Jones ultimately maintains his spotless record at Submission Underground 13.

Pick: Craig Jones (-385)

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