UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs. Souza Odds, Picks & Betting Preview

• Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza makes his light-heavyweight debut at UFC FN 164 (Nov. 16)
• Jan Blachowicz is looking to make it six wins in his last seven
• See the odds for the entire main card

The Octagon is in Sao Paulo, Brazil, for UFC Fight Night 164 on Saturday, Nov. 16. In the main event, Jan Blachowicz welcomes Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza to the light-heavyweight division. The co-main event sees Mauricio “Shogun” Rua return to take on short-notice opponent Paul Craig. The main card airs live on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Ronaldo Souza Odds

All odds taken Nov. 12.

How Will Souza Look at 205 Pounds?

Jan Blachowicz (24-8) is coming off of a very impressive knockout win over former Strikeforce and UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold at UFC 239. Before that, he lost by TKO to Thiago Santos in his main event in the UFC.

Blachowicz is the former KSW light-heavyweight champion and, in his career, has notable wins over Ilir Latifi, Jared Cannonier, Jimi Manuwa, and Nikita Krylov.

Ronaldo Souza (26-7 and one no-contest) had a disappointing performance last time out, getting dominated in a unanimous-decision setback to Jack Hermansson, a fight which motivated his move up to light heavyweight.

Souza is a Brazilian MMA legend and is the former Strikeforce middleweight champion. He has notable wins over Chris Weidman, Derek Brunson (twice), Vitor Belfort, Gegard Mousasi, and Robbie Lawler.

Tale of the Tape

This is a very interesting fight as many thought Blachowicz would earn a title shot against Jon Jones after he beat Rockhold. Yet, that was not the case and the Polish fighter will now have to fight another middleweight moving up in weight in Souza. The big question mark is how the Brazilian will look with 20 extra pounds.

For Blachowicz to win this fight, he will need to keep it on the feet and avoid Souza’s jiu-jitsu game.

Although Souza has better wins, Blachowicz should win this fight for a couple of reasons. The size difference will be a huge factor; he should be able to control where the fight takes place, keep it upright, and maybe even land a knockout punch.

Pick: Jan Blachowicz (-200)

Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig Odds

Can Rua Extend His Winning Streak?

Mauricio Rua (26-11) has not fought since December of last year but did return to the win column in that fight with a TKO win over Tyson Pedro. Before that, ‘Shogun’ was knocked out by Anthony Smith to snap his three-fight winning streak that included wins over Corey Anderson and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. Rua is the former UFC light heavyweight champion who lost his belt to Jon Jones, but has notable wins over Alistair Overeem (twice), Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Chuck Liddell, Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin, and Brandon Vera.

Paul Craig (12-4) returned to the win column in a big way last time out. There, he submitted Vinicius Moreira following a knockout loss to Alonzo Menifield. Craig has been disappointing in the UFC as he has a record of 4-4 with losses to Pedro, Khalil Rountree Jr., and Jimmy Crute. But, the Scottish fighter does have huge wins over Kennedy Nzechukwu and Magomed Ankalaev with submission wins with 40 and one seconds left, respectively.

Tale of the Tape

Originally, Rua was expected to take on Sam Alvey in what would have been a battle of two strikers. Now, Rua will need to be worried about Craig’s jiu-jitsu game and his submission attempts.

Yet, on the feet, they are not comparable as Rua is a much better striker and I expect him to be able to stuff Craig’s takedown attempts and similar to what Menifield did, land a hard counterpunch that knocked Craig out cold. In the end, it will be another win for Rua in front of his home country.

Pick: Mauricio Rua (-240)

UFC Fight Night 164 Card Odds

Here are the odds for the remaining fights on the main card.

Charles Oliveira vs. Jared Gordon Odds

Antonio Arroyo vs. Andre Muniz Odds

Markus Perez vs. Wellington Turman Odds