Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits for Orioles vs Yankees (May 2)

• The New York Yankees look to make it two straight in their 4-game series vs the Baltimore Orioles Saturday
• New York has ripped off 11 wins in its last 13 games
• Read below for the my Orioles vs Yankees, predictions, latest odds and betting splits

The New York Yankees are surging, winning 11 of their last 13 and sitting atop the AL East, as they continue their 4-game set with the Baltimore Orioles.

New York opened the series with a 7-2 win, and that’s part of the reason the books have them as -154 home favorites in the MLB odds.

The other? New York has whipped the O’s around of late, with six straight head-to-head wins, and nine in the last 10.

The clubs will take the field at Yankee Stadium early this afternoon, with first pitch scheduled for at 1:35pm ET, in a game that can be seen live on MLB TV.

Orioles vs Yankees Prediction

• Best Bet: Yankees ML (-154 at BetMGM)

Ryan Weathers takes the mound for New York, and after spending his first six seasons in the National League, he’s putting together an impressive campaign as a first-timer in the American League, backed by a sharp 3.21 ERA.

The southpaw has found success generating swings and misses, boasting an elite 10.69 K/9. More importantly, he showcases excellent command with a 2.14 BB/9, allowing him to pitch most innings stress free.

It doesn’t hurt that he’s backed by one of the best hitting lineups in baseball.

When playing in the Bronx, the Yankees boast the highest-scoring home offense in the majors. They maximize run production through elite plate discipline and raw power, resulting in a phenomenal .806 OPS — second-best in the majors at home.

Orioles vs Yankees Head-to-Head Stats

That will be the challenge for Orioles’ starter Kyle Bradish to deal with, as he’s labored through a frustrating start this campaign.

The right-hander’s biggest hurdle has been severe command struggles, which has turned in a bloated 5.10 BB/9, resulting in constant traffic on the base paths, reflected in a dangerously high 1.73 WHIP.

He doesn’t have the same lineup pop the Yankees have, as the Orioles average just 3.93 runs per game on the road, dragged down by a sluggish .631 OPS. Their lack of action on the basepaths leaves them entirely reliant on stringing together base hits, which they are currently struggling to do against elite pitching.

While Bradish still possesses decent strikeout stuff, his inability to limit free passes routinely drives up his pitch count. Navigating a patient Yankees lineup with these control issues will be a tough test.

Given Baltimore’s inability to limit baserunners and New York’s overwhelming bullpen advantage, backing the home team to win outright is my moneyline play.

The betting numbers also back that up: the Yankees boast a 7-2 record (77.8%) as a betting favorite in their last nine games, while the O’s are a miserable 3-8 as a moneyline underdog this season.

Orioles vs Yankees Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change

The Yankees enter Saturday’s clash as comfortable home favorites, priced at -154 on the moneyline at FanDuel. This pricing accurately reflects their elite run production at Yankee Stadium and the distinct starting pitching mismatch.

While the opening total of 8.5 runs has remained frozen both at bet365 and FanDuel, bookmakers have adjusted the runline juice. New York opened as -1.5 runline favorites at +135, but those odds have since lenghtened to +140 at BetMGM. This line movement is a direct response to heavy betting support pouring in for the home side to secure a multi-run victory.

Yankees vs Orioles Public Betting Splits

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, both casual ticket-holders and heavy-hitters are moving in lockstep.

A massive 90% of tickets and an overwhelming 88% of the moneyline handle are aggressively laying the juice with New York, and it’s even more lopsided when looking at the spread.

The betting public is putting 99% of the money on New York covering the 1.5 spread, which totals 89% of all bets. And the total is also another clear pick: Over 8.5 runs — despite the fact these two teams have gone Under the total in eight of the last 10 matchups.

A massive 88% of the money and 84% of the bets are taking the Over Saturday.