- The NBA Playoffs continue on Friday, as the Grizzlies and Timberwolves square off in Game 6
- Anthony Edwards has recorded two or fewer assists in three of the past four games
- See below to find out where we think the betting value lies
For the first time all postseason, there will be only one game to sweat on Friday night. That’s because seven of the eight First Round series have already wrapped up, leaving only the Grizzlies vs Timberwolves series to be decided.
Memphis grabbed a 3-2 series lead by winning Game 5 on Tuesday, and can close out Minnesota on the road in Game 6. Player props are available for the contest, and there’s no shortage of value to be found.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves Player Props – Game 6
|Grizzlies vs Timberwolves||Points||Rebounds||Assists||Three Pointers Made|
|Anthony Edwards (MIN)||23.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)||4.5 (Ov -160 / Un +120)||3.5 (Ov +110 / Un -140)||3.5 (Ov +100 / Un -140)|
|D’Angelo Russell (MIN)||16.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)||2.5 (Ov -185 / Un +135)||7.5 (Ov +100 / Un -130)||2.5 (Ov +135 / Un -180)|
|Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)||25.5 (Ov -105 / Un -120)||11.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||2.5 (Ov -135 / Un +105)||1.5 (Ov -165 / Un +130)|
|Patrick Beverley (MIN)||10.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||3.5 (Ov-170 / Un +130)||4.5 (Ov -165 / Un +125)||1.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)|
|Jarred Vanderbilt (MIN)||7.5 (Ov +110 / Un -140)||7.5 (Ov -140 / Un +110)||0.5 (Ov -220 / Un +160)||OFF|
|Dillon Brooks (MEM)||17.5 (Ov -125 / Un -105)||3.5 (Ov -105 / Un -125)||2.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100)||1.5 (Ov -140 / Un +105)|
|Jarren Jackson Jr (MEM)||12.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100)||6.5 (Ov +115 / Un -150)||OFF||1.5 (Ov +125 / Un -165)|
|Ja Morant (MEM)||27.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||7.5 (Ov -150 / Un +115)||9.5 (Ov +115 / Un -150)||1.5 (Ov +100 / Un -130)|
|Desmond Bane (MEM)||21.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||4.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||2.5 (Ov -150 / Un +115)||3.5 (Ov -145 / Un +110)|
Odds as of April 29th at DraftKings Sportsbook
Our betting card starts with a fade of Anthony Edwards in the assist department, as the former number one overall pick hasn’t shown much interest in distributing lately.
Pick #1: Anthony Edwards Under 3.5 Assists
Edwards is a shoot first player, and the Timberwolves will need plenty of offense from him as 1-point underdogs in a contest that features a lofty 229 total. Edwards took 20 shots in Game 5, without recording a single assist.
what a play call. what a pass. what a shot. Anthony Edwards for the tie. pic.twitter.com/76A7e8WsHY
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) April 27, 2022
In fact, his assist totals have been low all series as he’s dished out two or fewer dimes in three of the past four contests. Minnesota can afford to have him focus primarily on scoring, because they play with two point guards on the floor for the majority of the game.
Both Patrick Beverley and D’Angelo Russell are logging heavy minutes versus the Grizzlies, with each averaging over 31 minutes per contest. They’ve combined to average 12.5 assists per outing, leaving little room for their teammates to rack up big assist numbers of their own.
Add in the fact that the Grizzlies ranked sixth in defensive rating during the regular season and Edwards’ assist prop is an easy fade.
- Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 3.5 Assists (-140)
Pick #2: Dillon Brooks Over 17.5 Points
Our next target is the over on Dillon Brooks’ point total. The number is currently set at 17.5 which is simply too low given the amount of opportunity he’s seeing.
Brooks is averaging 15.5 field goal attempts per contest this series, and has taken 38 shots in the last two games alone. His efficiency has been lacking, which is why this prop is so low, but if we zoom out and look at his full body of work for the entire season it’s impossible to ignore his skill.
Brooks averaged 18.5 points during the regular season, shooting 43.2% from the field, the second highest percentage of his career. The Timberwolves seem content to let him shoot, and he burned them two games ago by burying 24 points.
DILLON BROOKS DAGGER! WHAT A COMEBACK ‼️ pic.twitter.com/fxh2ZYLC2n
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) April 22, 2022
As mentioned earlier, this is a high total game and both teams love to play fast. Memphis and Minnesota are first and second in pace during the playoffs, after each ranking top-three during the regular season. More pace equals more possessions which equals more opportunities for Brooks and the Grizzlies to score.
Also working in Brooks’ favor is the Timberwolves underwhelming defense. Only Denver has allowed more points per game during the playoffs than Minnesota, after the Timberwolves finished 24th in scoring defense during the regular season.
Pick: Dillon Brooks Over 17.5 Points (-125)