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Best NBA Betting Trends to Target and Fade for Remainder of Regular Season

Chris Sheridan

by Chris Sheridan in NBA Basketball

Apr 13, 2021 · 11:32 AM PDT

Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz have been the NBA's best team at home. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
  • NBA-best Utah Jazz are regularly covering the spread at home, going 20-6-1
  • Post-Harden Houston Rockets are a miserable 6-20-0 at home against the spread.
  • What season-long gambling trends can be exploited? Which remain relevant due to personnel changes? See some of the top trends and fades within the article below

This NBA season is nuts. Superstars are sidelined, games are played in empty arenas, broadcasters are broadcasting from their homes, and the Toronto Raptors are playing all of their home games in Tampa, Florida.

Well, actually there are ways to make sense of it. And to profit if certain NBA betting trends hold.

NBA Betting Trends to Target

Team Trend To Bet Results
Utah Jazz Against The Spread at Home 20-6-1
New Orleans Pelicans Over at home 20-8-1
Milwaukee Bucks Over at home 17-9-0
Memphis Grizzlies Over on road 20-9-1
Brooklyn Nets Over on road 20-9-1
San Antonio Spurs Against the Spread On Road 15-7-1

How Much of a Lock Are the Trends?

Nothing is a lock. The Utah Jazz lost at home on Monday night to the Wizards, ending a 24-game home winning streak. Stuff happens, as they say. Or something like that.

Still, if you had wagered $10 on the Jazz to cover the spread in each of their 27 home games you would have won 20 times, lost six times and pushed once. You would be up $140.

If we add a couple zeros and you wagered $1,000 each time, you would be up $14,000.

If it was $10,000 per game, you would be watching tonight’s games on your new yacht. Folks actually make a living doing this.

The Jazz (40-14) have the NBA’s best home record (40-3) and best point differential (+9.5). They are loaded with 3-point shooters, coach Quin Snyder is likely to win Coach of the Year, and the U.S. sports media ignores them because they play in a very small market and  are devoid of superstars. Utah is even using the hashtag #takenotice because nobody is giving them proper respect.

 

The above teams hit at high percentages. The teams listed below miss at high percentages.

NBA Betting Trends to Fade

Team Trend To Bet Results
Houston Rockets Against The Spread at Home 6-20-0
Golden State Warriors Against the Spread on Road 9-18-0
Cleveland Cavaliers Against the Spread on Road 9-18-0
Oklahoma City Thunder Against the Spread at Home 9-18-1
Charlotte Hornets Overs at home 8-15-0
Los Angeles Lakers Overs on road 9-17-1

Bad Teams Usually Do Bad Things

The Rockets are 14-40, tied for last in West with the dumpster fire also known as the Minnesota Timberwolves. They started the year with an overweight, unhappy James Harden wanting to be traded, and the guy with the NBA’s best beard eventually got his wish, got into shape and turned the Brooklyn Nets into a powerhouse now favored to win the East.

DeMarcus Cousins was there at the beginning season but eventually left and landed with the Clippers, Victor Oladipo was acquired in the Harden trade but refused an extension and was eventually traded to Miami, and now the Rockets have lost 10 of 12. Prior to that, they’d lost 20 in a row.

They will be back at home Wednesday against the Indiana Pacers and Friday against the Denver Nuggets, then will have eight more home games after that. Hakeem Olajuwon is not walking through that door, so do with this information what you wish. But a warning: They covered the spread in their two most recent home games because the books were aware of this trend.

How to Bet With the Trends This Week

Keep in mind that the personnel on many of the above referenced teams have changed, and the sportsbooks are aware of these trends and use them when setting lines.

There has been so much personnel turnover that what worked a month ago may not be relevant anymore. Also, marginal players on bad teams are actually playing a lot harder that one might expect because they’re trying to secure contracts for next season.

So ask yourself: “Who has something to play for tonight?” when using these numbers to devise your nightly scheme. This is the most unpredictable NBA season in history, but the data does not lie.

If you are looking for the five trends most likely to hold, the prediction here is Jazz at home covering, Lakers on the road “under,” Milwaukee at home “over,” Indiana at home not covering, and the Pelicans at home “over.”

Take Notice of These Trends

The Lakers are playing the second night of a road back-to-back Tuesday night at Charlotte, and they have been in New York City from Thursday through Monday. As noted above, the “under” has hit regularly in Hornets home games and Lakers road games (although it missed at Madison Square Garden last night.

This morning, the under got pounded as soon as it went up, moving from 213.5 to 208.5. Tonight, keep in mind that the Hornets have been home since Saturday after a two-week road trip. They will not be the more tired team, guaranteed.

The Jazz are home all week, playing the Thunder tonight and the Pacers on Thursday. The Rockets are home Wednesday and Friday.  The Pelicans are home again Wednesday, and they have turned into the Zion Williamson show, and he is killing it. In 24 of the past 25 games, he has shot well above 50 percent from the field.

So if you are parlaying anything, you may want to consider his point total “over” as an add-on.

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