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Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Odds & Player Props (Apr. 2)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 2, 2024 · 5:57 PM PDT

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic and Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry
Nov 29, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) dribbles as Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) runs upcourt during the second half at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Dallas Mavericks visit the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night
  • The Warriors are short favorites in the latest edition of Doncic vs Curry
  • Read below for Mavericks vs Warriors prediction, odds and player props to bet

The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) visit Chase Center (40-34) to take on the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday, April 2, 2024. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET and the game will be televised nationally on TNT.

The Warriors are slight 1.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 232.5 total points. Player props favor another massive 30+ point outing from Dallas superstar Luka Doncic.

Let’s get into our Mavericks vs Warriors prediction, as we analyze the odds and break down the best player props to bet.

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
DAL Mavericks +1.5 (-120) -110 Over 232.5 (-105)
GS Warriors -1.5 (Even) -110 Under 232.5 (-115)

In the Mavs vs Warriors odds for Tuesday, both teams are equal -110 favorites on the moneyline (52.4% implied win probability).

The latest NBA Championship odds price Dallas as a top-10 favorite at +2200 odds, while Golden State cracks the top-20 contenders as +6500 longshots.

 

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Mavericks Betting Analysis

The Mavericks come into this game red hot, riding a seven-game winning streak that has propelled them to the sixth seed in the West. Dallas has won nine of its last ten games overall and is an impressive 6-1 in its last seven road contests.

Most recently, the Mavs made quick work of the Houston Rockets in a 125-107 victory on Sunday. Luka Doncic put on a show from the opening tip, pouring in 22 points in the first quarter alone on his way to a 47-point masterpiece.

YouTube video

The MVP candidate is playing some of the best basketball of his career, averaging 34.0 points, 9.1 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game this season. Following his massive 47-point game, Doncic is now the second favorite in the NBA MVP odds at +550.

Doncic’s co-star Kyrie Irving has also been stellar since joining the Mavs. The All-Star guard is putting up 25.3 points and 5.3 assists per contest. Tim Hardaway Jr. (15.1 ppg) spaces the floor as a reliable outside threat, while the center duo of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II provide rim protection and rebounding.

The Mavs are an offensive juggernaut, ranking 6th in the NBA in scoring at 118.6 points per game. Impressively, Dallas has been money against the spread lately, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games and 25-12 ATS on the road this season.

Warriors Betting Analysis

The Warriors are clinging to the final play-in spot in the West as the 10th seed in the NBA Playoff Bracket. Golden State has won four straight games to build some breathing room, including a 117-113 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday.

As usual, Golden State lives and dies by the play of Stephen Curry. The two-time MVP leads the team in scoring at 26.6 points per game. His Splash Brother running mate Klay Thompson adds 17.3 points per contest and is probable for this game despite dealing with a knee injury.

Draymond Green is the heart and soul of the Warriors, leading the squad in rebounds (7.3 rpg) and providing elite defense. The Warriors will need Green to be at his best against Doncic and the high-powered Mavs offense.

Depth is a major concern for the Warriors. Jonathan Kuminga (16.3 ppg) has flashed potential but is inconsistent and is questionable for this game with a knee injury. Dario Saric is also out. The Warriors rank third in bench scoring at 42.9 points per game.

The Warriors have been solid ATS though, going 41-33 overall and 25-12 ATS on the road. However, they are just 16-21 ATS at home. The total has gone over in 22 of their 37 home games as well.

Mavs vs Warriors Player Props

NBA player props are now available for the Mavs vs Warriors showdown, with Luka sporting the highest point total at 33.5. Curry’s point total is sitting at 26.5, while Irving isn’t far behind at 25.5 projected points.

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Andrew Wiggins 12.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 4.5 (Ov -160 | Un +124) OFF 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -180)
Daniel Gafford 11.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 7.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) OFF OFF
Dante Exum 6.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 2.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 0.5 (Ov -160 | Un +124)
Derrick Jones Jr. 7.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -166) OFF 0.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Draymond Green 7.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 7.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114) 5.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105) 0.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Jonathan Kuminga 16.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -150) 2.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175) 0.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Klay Thompson 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 3.5 (Ov +120 | Un -150) 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -195) 3.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Kyrie Irving 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 3.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175)
Luka Doncic 33.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 9.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) 9.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) 3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +120)
Maxi Kleber OFF 3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -166) OFF 0.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)
P.J. Washington 11.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 5.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) OFF 1.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110)
Stephen Curry 26.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 3.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114) 4.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114)
Tim Hardaway Jr. 10.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) OFF 2.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175)

NBA player prop odds as of April 2nd, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Doncic has the highest point total on the board for good reason. He actually scores 34.1 points per game against the Warriors, which is 0.6 more than his current over/under. We like taking the over on the Dallas star’s player prop as he should go off once again against Golden State’s mediocre 20th-ranked defense.

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors Prediction

This game will likely come down to which superstar can impose his will more – Doncic or Curry. The Mavs need to take advantage of the Warriors’ weak interior defense by feeding Doncic in the post and letting him create. Defensively, Dallas must stay attached to Curry and Thompson on the perimeter.

For Golden State to pull off the minor upset, they need vintage performances from Curry and Thompson. The Warriors’ best bet is to play fast, move the ball, and bomb away from three-point range. On defense, they have to send aggressive double teams at Doncic.

The biggest X-factor for Dallas is the health of Dereck Lively II, who is questionable with a leg injury. His size and rim protection would be very valuable against the Warriors. Golden State, meanwhile, needs Kuminga to play well if he’s able to suit up.

In the end, I’m buying the Mavs’ momentum and rolling with Dallas on the moneyline at -110 odds. Doncic is playing at an otherworldly level right now and I expect him to carve up the Warriors’ mediocre defense. The Mavs are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Golden State. Take Dallas to make a statement on the road.

DAL vs GSW Pick:

  • Mavericks ML (-110)

 

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