- The Golden State Warriors are 1-point favorites in Sacramento in Game 1 of their series vs the Kings
- GState has the worst road record of any team in the playoffs at 11-30
- Read below for the Warriors vs Kings Game 1 odds and predictions
The 17-year playoff drought for the Sacramento Kings (48-34, 23-18 home) is over. They open Round 1 against the Golden State Warriors (44-38, 11-30 away) — a team who has made the postseason their personal playground, claiming four titles in the last eight seasons.
It’s easily the most intriguing matchup in the West’s NBA Playoff Bracket, including how the young Kings, led by budding stars De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, can contend with a core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.
GState’s lineup is potentially whole for the first time in forever too, with Andrew Wiggins cleared for Game 1.
This one goes in primetime Saturday night (April 15) at 8:30pm ET from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA. You can watch the game live on ABC.
Warriors vs Kings Odds
|Golden State Warriors||-1 (-105)||-110||Ov 237.5 (-110)|
|Sacramento Kings||+1 (-115)||-110||Un 237.5 (-110)|
Both teams are -110 on the moneyline, each given an implied win probability of 52.38%. This total is the highest of any Game 1 opener in the NBA’s Saturday 4-pack at 237.5.
Talk about lack of respect: the 3rd-seeded Kings are +5000 in the 2023 NBA Championship odds, while the Dubs, seeded sixth, are pegged with the 4th-best odds to go back-to-back at +850.
Odds as of April 14 at DraftKings.
Golden State Betting Analysis
We’re about to find out of the Warriors can flip the switch on their horrendous 11-30 regular-season road record.
One of those wins was a mercy W, at the same Golden 1 Center, when the Kings rested their starters in a 119-97 loss on April 7. The other matchup was a 122-115 loss on November 13.
No other team has a larger home-road difference than the Warriors, who are a sublime 33-8 at Chase Center, the 3rd-best home record in the NBA.
— First Take (@FirstTake) April 13, 2023
Defensively, while they allow 111.7 points per game at home, that number jumps to 122.5 away, which would rank 2nd-last in the league. Home teams are shooting 48.6% from the field against the Warriors, and a blistering 39.7% from distance.
There is cause for optimism, and some support behind the Dubs’ offense, which puts up 118.9 points per game (2nd).
Wiggins has returned from his personal leave of absence, which ran the final 25 games of the regular season. He was the second-best player on GState’s title team a year ago, and his all-around game and ability to defend will be much welcomed.
Ditto a healthy Gary Payton II, who should see major minutes trying to contain the blur that is De’Aaron Fox.
Sacramento Betting Analysis
There might not be a more exciting to return to the postseason than the season the Kings just submitted.
SacTo led the league in scoring at 120.7 points per game, and in Fox, they have one of the premier losers. He scored the 3rd-most buckets in the fourth quarter, averaging 7.5 points on 51% from the field and 36.5% from distance in the final frame.
De’Aaron Fox’ clutch numbers and tape this season are truly ridiculous. Clutch highlights look like a career long reel, not just one season… pic.twitter.com/pCkPUiA1Qz
— NBA University (@NBA_University) March 22, 2023
He’s supported by do-it-all big man Domantas Sabonis, who averaged 19.1 points, 12.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists on 61.5% shooting from the field.
As a team, the Kings shoot 49.4% from the field (2nd) and, while they’re not the lethal Warriors’ 3-point juggernaut, who are second in shooting at 38.5% on a league-best 43.2 attempts. the Kings are ninth at a solid 36.9% clip from beyond the arc.
Warriors vs Kings Head-to-Head
|44-38||Regular Season Record||48-34|
|118.9 (2nd)||Points per Game||120.7 (1st)|
|117.1 (21st)||Points Against per Game||118.1 (T-25th)|
|57.1% (3rd)||Effective FG%||57.2% (2nd)|
|54.0% (11th)||Opponent Effective FG%||56.3% (27th)|
Their flaw, which could be exploited, especially by a championship-savvy opponent, is defense. Sacramento enters the playoffs tied for the most points allowed per game of any team in the postseason at 117.1 points.
Also frightening is their 3-point defense, which allows teams to shoot 37.3%, tied for 25th in the NBA, the worst of any playoff team.
SacTo has some injury concerns, too, with Harrison Barnes (knee) listed as probable, while Davion Mitchell (knee) is questionable.
Warriors vs Kings Game 1 Betting Prediction
Golden State was the worst road bet all year, going 11-29-0 against the spread — three games worse than any team in the NBA.
Both teams haven’t been a great bet with this tight of a line: the Dubs were 6-9-1 ATS inside a bucket spread, including 0-3 ATS in their last three. The Kings are 11-11 ATS in that scenario, though 4-0 ATS in the last four.
Despite the offensive firepower, that’s an awfully high total to be targeting. It’s a mark these teams crossed just once in their four head-to-heads this season.
In fact, the under has hit in six of the last nine meetings between these two. Wiggins and Payton II should make a defensive difference in this one, just enough to keep it below the total.
- UNDER 237.5 points (-110); 1.5 units to win 1.36 units
- NBA Postseason Record: 1-0 o/u; +1.36 units