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Hawks vs Heat Odds, Spread & Picks (April 11)

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 10, 2023 · 4:00 PM PDT

Jimmy Butler guarded by Trae Young and Dejounte Murray
Mar 6, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) dribbles the basketball as Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) defends during the first quarter at Miami-Dade Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Miami Heat are 5-point home favorites in their play-in game vs the Atlanta Hawks Tuesday
  • The winner secures the seventh seed in the East, and a date with the Boston Celtics in Round 1
  • Read below for the Hawks vs Heat play-in odds and predictions

It’s a rematch of the a first-round matchup a year ago, only this time, it’s a 1-game playoff to earn a playoff berth when the Atlanta Hawks (41-41, 17-24 away) visit the Miami Heat (44-38, 27-14 home).

The winner locks into the 7th-seed in the East’s NBA Playoff Bracket, and a date with 2nd-seeded Boston Celtics. The loser hosts the winner of the Bulls-Raptors play-in, with the winner securing the 8-seed, and a first-round matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks.

This one will feature strength vs strength, as the Hawks feature the league’s 2nd-highest scoring offense. Miami is last in scoring, but the Heat do have the NBA’s 2nd-best scoring defense.

It all gets underway Tuesday (April 11) at 7:30pm ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL. You can watch the game live on TNT.

Hawks vs Heat Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Atlanta Hawks +5 (-110) +170 Ov 226.5 (-110)
Miami Heat -5 (-110) -200 Un 226.5 (-110)

The hometown Heat are favored in the NBA odds, laying five points to the visiting Hawks, as well as being a -200 favorite on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 66.67%. This matchup also features a total of 226.5.

Atlanta is just 17-24 on the road this season, and 3-6 away from home since Quin Snyder stepped in as head coach for Nate McMillan.

At 27-14, the Heat are tied for the 4th-most home wins in the conference, though they haven’t been a great home bet: Miami is 14-25-2 against the spread at Kaseya, the 2nd-worst mark in the NBA.

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Odds as of April 10 at DraftKings

Atlanta Betting Analysis

The Hawks fired McMillan in part because of an inconsistent run that had them 29-30. Assistant Joe Prunty guided them for one game before Quin Snyder arrived, and the team continues to search for consistency, going 10-11 under Snyder.

If there is one marked improvement, it’s on offense, where the club have jumped from 11th to fourth in offensive rating under Snyder’s guidance.

His biggest task is finding a way to get Trae Young going against the Heat. In four head-to-head contests, Young averaged 19.8 points and 9.8 assists, shooting 35.6% from the field and 20.8% from distance.

This isn’t an anomaly, either: in the playoffs last year, a 4-1 series win for the Heat, Young averaged 15.4 points and 6.0 assists, shooting 31.9% from the field and 18.4% from 3-point range, while committing 31 turnovers.

That’s what prompted the aggressive run to grab Dejounte Murray this offseason. He put up 20.5 points, 6.1 assists and 5.3 rebounds in 74 games this year, and needs to hold his own to let Young breathe against Miami’s tough defense.

Miami Betting Analysis

There’s just no way the Miami Heat can be: they’re built to grind.

Over the course of an 82-game schedule, the Heat put up an NBA-worst 109.3 points per game, but their defense kept them in games, as they allowed just 109.8 points per contest (2nd).

Hawks vs Heat Head-to-Head

Atlanta Hawks
VS
Miami Heat
41-41 Season Record 44-38
1 Head-to-Head Wins 3
118.5 (T-2nd) Points per Game 109.3 (30th)
118.1 (25th) Points Against per Game 109.8 (2nd)
54.1% (19th) Effective FG% 53.0% (25th)
55.2% (22nd) Opponent Effective FG% 56.1% (25th)

They’ve also faced a slew of injuries, but all their regulars are off the injured list and available for this one. It starts with Jimmy Butler, whose big-game status is unquestioned and warranted.

Jimmy Buckets has six 40-point games in his career, all with the Heat and all in the postseason. His transformation come playoff time makes you forget Miami is 26th in field goal shooting (46%) and 27th from three-point range (34%).

In three games vs the Hawks, he averaged 25 points, 8.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists.

Miami was just 22nd in paint scoring, but the Hawks gave up 54.7 points per game, the second-worst in the league. The Heat also feast off turnovers, scoring 18.6 points per game off them (6th). The Hawks are tied for the 3rd-fewest turnovers per game.

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Hawks vs Heat Betting Prediction

All four regular-season matchups were competitive, with no team winning by more than double digits. The Heat are 8-3 ATS at home in their last 11 vs the Hawks.

However, because of Miami’s poor home betting mark, it’s hard to give them five points in any matchup.

Instead, we’ll look at the total. While the over/under was 2-2 against the set total in the regular season, every playoff game from last year was under, indicating that Miami can handle the tempo of the Hawks.

The under has hit in eight of the last 10 meetings. While I think Miami wins, go with the better odds of the under.

Pick: 

  • UNDER 226.5 points (-110); 1.5 units to win 1.36 units
  • NBA Regular Season Record: 38-41-1 ATS, 2-2 ML, 8-0 o/u, 0-3 parlays; -14.95 units
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