- The Western Conference Finals get underway on Wednesday night
- Golden State is favored by five points over the Mavericks at Chase Center
- Read below for May 18 NBA Player Props and our best bets
Following Dallas’ remarkable Game 7 win over Phoenix at the weekend, they face the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center in the 2022 Western Conference Finals. The Dubs are five-point favorites in Game 1 and have a significant rest advantage coming into this game.
Dallas won three of the four regular season matchups, though the Dubs’ lone win came by a mammoth 38 points in San Francisco earlier this year.
NBA Player Props – May 18
|DAL @ GSW||Points||Rebounds||Assists||Three Pointers Made|
|Luka Doncic (DAL)||33.5 (O -110 | U -110)||9.5 (O -118 | U -104)||7.5 (O -142 | U +116)||3.5 (O -128 | U +100)|
|Jalen Brunson (DAL)||18.5 (O -118 | U -104)||4.5 (O +112 | U -138)||3.5 (O +134 | U -164)||1.5 (O +112 | U -142)|
|Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL)||11.5 (O -110 | U -110)||5.5 (O +112 | U -138)||OFF||2.5 (O +118 | U -150)|
|Reggie Bullock (DAL)||8.5 (O -130 | U +106)||4.5 (O -110 | U -110)||OFF||2.5 (O +116 | U -148)|
|Steph Curry (GSW)||27.5 (O -108 | U -114)||5.5 (O +110 | U -134)||5.5 (O -114 | U -106)||3.5 (O -148 | U +116)|
|Klay Thompson (GSW)||20.5 (O -108 | U -114)||4.5 (O -105 | U -115)||2.5 (O +118 | U -144)||3.5 (O -106 | U -120)|
|Andrew Wiggins (GSW)||15.5 (O -110 | U -110)||6.5 (O +116 | U -142)||OFF||1.5 (O +120 | U -154)|
|Draymond Green (GSW)||7.5 (O -118 | U -104)||8.5 (O +110 | U -134)||6.5 (O -142 | U +116)||OFF|
|Jordan Poole (GSW)||16.5 (O -116 | U -106)||3.5 (O +114 | U -140)||3.5 (O -138 | U +112)||1.5 (O -178 | U +138)|
Odds as of May 18 at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Phoenix Suns were NBA Championship odds favorites for much of the last few months. Luka Doncic lit them up in Game 7 with another postseason masterpiece – the Slovenian has the highest points line in Game 1 at 33.5.
Klay Thompson Stays Hot Shooting
Dallas was aggressive to take the ball out of Steph Curry’s hands in the regular season. Steve Kerr is expecting a lot of traps and doubles on the two-time MVP. If Curry’s shot total is limited, other Warriors will benefit, and perhaps no one more so than Klay Thompson.
The Mavericks blitzed and doubled Steph Curry the entire fourth quarter of their previous matchup. Steve Kerr called it the best game to watch for playoff prep: "We're anticipating they'll blitz Steph"
Here are the clips of those 4Q doubles and Kerr's soundbite on it pic.twitter.com/neDdZLjl02
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) May 17, 2022
Thompson has been a bit of a feast or famine scorer in this postseason. His 20.5 points line for Game 1 has been passed just twice in the last seven games. One of those, though, was a stellar Game 6 outing with eight threes and 30 points. He also got into the twenties in three straight first round games.
Dallas has options to matchup with the Warriors’ guards. Jason Kidd will likely mix it up, and can change the assignments if Thompson begins to get hot as he did in Game 6. Sometimes the defense just doesn’t matter when Thompson gets going, though.
The Man. The Myth. The Legend … GAME 6 KLAY pic.twitter.com/T9gliPVLG8
— Warriors on NBCS (@NBCSWarriors) May 14, 2022
We know the volume will be there – Thompson is averaging over 17 field goal attempts per game, with only Curry and Luka Doncic getting up more outside shots. After what we saw a few days ago, we can feel pretty confident about the five-time All-Star hitting this over.
- Pick: Klay Thompson over 20.5 points (-108)
Doncic Grabs Rebounds
Luka Doncic is Dallas’ best rebounder. When Dwight Powell is off the floor, Doncic is often in a good position to grab boards with Maxi Kleber and Dorian Finney-Smith out towards the perimeter. The Mavericks’ scheme looks to minimize Doncic’s mileage on defense, and he’s got a knack for being in the right place at the right time.
Luka Doncic completely DOMINATED the Suns' stars 😲 pic.twitter.com/nKXOO0dhz6
— BasketNews (@BasketNews_com) May 17, 2022
Golden State will start Kevon Looney to bolster their defense and rebounding. Looney is unlikely to play big minutes, however, leaving a lot of time with Doncic on the floor against smaller Warriors lineups. Draymond Green is superb on the glass, but Doncic is still going to have plenty of rebound opportunities.
Doncic has reached double figures in rebounds in four of his last five. Overall, he’s passed this 9.5 line in seven of 10 postseason games. The 10.1 average in this postseason is the highest of any remaining player, and with Dallas having the worst rebounding percentage as a team, his contributions on the glass are much-needed.
Grabbing 10 or more boards has been routine work for Doncic since his return from injury. Back the over here.
- Pick: Luka Doncic over 9.5 rebounds (-118)