Opening 2022 NBA Draft Odds List Auburn’s Jabari Smith as Favorite to Go 1st Overall

• Jabari Smith is the narrow betting favorite to go first overall ahead of Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero
• There was a lot of hype for Banchero going first overall amid Duke’s deep March Madness run
• Which player is the best value to go first overall as it stands?

Jabari Smith is the surprise betting favorite to be selected first overall. Priced at +110, Smith is ahead of Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero in 2022 NBA Draft odds. Holmgren comes in at +180, while Banchero sits third at +230 despite impressing in the tournament with Duke.

The Rockets, Magic and Pistons each share a 14% chance at the first overall pick when the draft lottery takes place. Oklahoma City has a 12.5% shot, and Indiana is at 10.5%. Each of those franchises have different needs, of course, and then there’s the Blazers and Kings at 9% and 7.5% respectively who will both be looking to compete in 2022-23.

Odds to Be Selected First Overall in 2022 NBA Draft

Odds as of Apr 11th at Caesars Sportsbook

Outside of the top three, it would be a surprise to see someone else selected first overall but perhaps Jaden Ivey can impress in the pre-draft process. He has drawn comparisons to Most Improved Player favorite Ja Morant.

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Comparing the Prospects

It’s a bit of a surprise to see Smith as the favorite here, yet he is the safest pick of the top three. Smith’s shooting will translate and he’s expected to develop into a solid or better defender. There is crazy upside for a scorer of his ability at 6’10, though the unicorn talent of Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero’s impressive tournament play have attracted considerable attention in recent weeks.

The playmaking attributes of Banchero and Holmgren are tantalizing for fans and front offices alike. With Smith, however, it’s easy to make comparisons to Kevin Durant or Michael Porter Jr with his un-guardable, high-release jumper. His floor is seemingly higher than his rivals for the first overall pick, but there is still work to do as a ball handler and passer.

As the odds suggest, it’s a matter of taste with these three talents. Most draft experts do not feel particularly strongly one way or the other – selecting any of them first overall would be ultimately very defensible.

Potential Fits

The Magic, Rockets and Pistons have different needs. Orlando is loaded in the backcourt, and has Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr in the frontcourt. Smith’s scoring would slot in nicely at the four next to Wagner and Carter, though a similar case can be made for either Banchero or Holmgren as frontcourt partners for Carter, who had a stellar 2021-22 campaign.

Houston is looking to build a contender around Jalen Green. The playmaking skills of Holmgren and Banchero would be a good complement to the score-first game of Green, though that’s a role Alperen Sengun could also fill long-term. Putting Smith with Green seems risky given playmaking is a weakness for both of them. If Houston wins the lottery, Smith’s odds may well lengthen considerably.

It’s all about putting shooting around Cade Cunningham for the Pistons. Banchero’s shaky jumper wouldn’t be ideal. Smith is tailormade to benefit from Cunningham’s game, but the prospect of a two-man game with Cunningham and Holmgren is a lot of fun, too.

Odds Movement to Be Expected

Little divides these prospects. There are bound to be reports and counter reports throughout the draft process which will shift these odds. It wouldn’t be a surprise if all three had separate stints as the favorite to go first overall.

While Smith could find a role on any team with his shooting ability, we should expect considerable odds movement after the lottery. If a team looking to win a lot of games in 2022-23 jumps up and gets the first overall pick, we could see Smith’s odds shorten further given how he can make an immediate impact. In contrast, a team like the Thunder moving up could increase the likelihood of a high-upside swing on Holmgren to pair with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey.