Updated NBA MVP Odds – Joel Embiid Now Odds-On Favorite After Monstrous Performance vs Bulls

• Joel Embiid dominated the Chicago Bulls on Monday night to extend his lead in the NBA MVP race
• Embiid is the odds on favorite to win the award ahead of Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo
• Where does the betting value lie with a month of hoops left?

Joel Embiid has built momentum in the NBA MVP race throughout 2022. The Sixers big man put up yet another monstrous line on Monday night with 43 points, 14 rebounds, three blocks and two steals as Philly beat the Chicago Bulls. It moved Doc Rivers’ team to 5-0 in games with James Harden, and has seen Embiid become odds-on favorite in the latest NBA MVP odds.

Embiid leads the Association in scoring. He’s eighth in rebounds per game and only Luka Doncic has a higher usage rate. Pair that with All-Defense level play on the other end, and there’s a compelling case to crown Embiid MVP in 2022 after he missed out last season.

2022 NBA MVP Odds

Odds as of Mar 8th at Barstool Sportsbook

The only other serious contender at this stage appears to be Nikola Jokic, who’s shortened to odds of +160. Giannis Antetokounmpo and DeMar DeRozan are likely too far back unless their teams end up winning the Eastern Conference.

Sixers Dominant with Harden

Even those most optimistic about the James Harden and Joel Embiid fit didn’t see them starting this well. They are 5-0 as a duo with impressive wins over Cleveland and Chicago in their last two. Philly is embarking on a tough run of games, with only two games against non-playoff teams through the rest of March.

After statement wins over the Cavs and Bulls, though, confidence in the Sixers is high. Catching the Heat is unlikely (which led to Harden sitting out the game against Miami a couple of days ago), but Philly is well-set to take the two seed in a very competitive Eastern Conference. Given Ben Simmons’ absence and then adjusting to Harden’s arrival, finishing second in the East would be a spectacular achievement from Embiid.

There is a narrative in favor of Embiid. Rightly or wrongly, that will impact the MVP race. If Philly finishes in the top two or three, and Embiid remains healthy, it’s hard to look past him this year. He’s got a strong statistical case, backed up by challenging circumstances.

Jokic Stays Close

When it comes to thriving in adversity, though, Nikola Jokic has a strong counter claim. Effectively without Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray all season, the Joker has carried the Nuggets into the top six. Denver has been short-handed, but Jokic has generated wins regardless of the players around him.

He’s coming off a couple of gems of his own, dropping a 46-point triple double on Sunday followed by a 32-point triple double on Monday. The advanced stats point towards Jokic as the clear MVP – his 17.6 WAR on FiveThirtyEight is 7.5 ahead of anyone else, and his 7.7 VORP is well ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Embiid.

It’s easy to construct a case for Jokic or Antetokounmpo to win the award. They are ahead of Embiid in several statistical categories, but despite the absent teammates, Denver being down in sixth works against Jokic, and both are the victims of voter fatigue to a degree. Antetokounmpo is third in scoring and playing at a Defensive Player of the Year standard, yet this feels like it has come down to Jokic versus Embiid again.

Morant, Doncic on Fire

Outside of the top three, a pair of young guards have been doing some wild stuff lately. Ja Morant is scoring 35.3 points per game over the last eight as the Grizzlies look set to claim the two seed in the Western Conference. Doncic is at 32, 11 and seven over the same period, and the Mavericks could yet snatch a top four spot.

It seems unlikely that Morant or Doncic can win the award at this stage. Yet, if they keep up this pace with the Nuggets dropping to seventh and Embiid getting injured, they would surely have a real chance. Doncic’s slow start to the year works against him in a big way, of course, contributing to the +4000 price. For Morant, it’s as straight forward as Memphis needing to take the finish second while he climbs the scoring charts.

A lot needs to fall their way for either Morant or Doncic to even make the top three. There’s still time for a late surge, however, and it’s hard not to be tempted at such long odds with how the pair have played lately.