Updated NBA Rookie of the Year Odds – Mobley Heavily Favored Despite Quiet Night in Toronto

• Evan Mobley remains the heavy Rookie of the Year favorite despite Cleveland’s Thursday night loss to Toronto
• Both Mobley and Scottie Barnes had quiet nights, combining for just 16 field goal attempts
• Is the Rookie of the Year race already decided?

Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley have been the Rookie of the Year odds favorites since the opening weeks of the season. The pair dueled on Thursday night in a game with severe postseason implications in the Eastern Conference. Toronto came out on top, and now share the same record as the Cavaliers, but it was a relatively understated game for the two rookie phenoms.

With Barnes and Mobley getting up just 16 shots combined, it was a game where Pascal Siakam took center stage, dropping 35 points in yet another big performance. In what could have been a statement game for either player in the Rookie of the Year race, neither put in a particularly eye-catching performance on the offensive end.

2022 NBA ROY Odds

Odds as of March 25th at FanDuel Sportsbook

Mobley is -480 at FanDuel, and can be found as short as -700 to -900 at other sportsbooks.

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Mobley Cements Top Spot

Average Rookie of the Year odds had Mobley at -600 just a couple of weeks ago. He’s moved in to -835 at Barstool, despite scoring just 11 points with eight boards and one assist on Thursday night. While Mobley was a -6 for the game, his defensive talent was on show throughout, including three blocks.

Often guarding one another, the two Rookie of the Year favorites did a good job at nullifying their respective offensive games. Mobley got just seven shots up despite averaging 12.7 since the All-Star break. Barnes has averaged 14.6 field goal attempts over the same span – he took just nine shots.

A Scottie's Better chant has broken out as Evan Mobley shoots free throws

— 𝐀𝐚𝐫𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐨𝐬𝐞 (@AaronBenRose) March 25, 2022

As he always does, Barnes contributed away from scoring. He grabbed six rebounds and clocked four assists, albeit the rebounds again came in well below his post-break average. Away from the box score, his vision and passing was once again on show, though it wasn’t always rewarded with assists. Mobley took a back seat in the offense with Kevin Love, Lamar Stevens and Lauri Markkanen all enjoying productive nights.

Barnes Needs Something Special

Individual games shouldn’t matter too much when it comes to awards voting. Rightly or wrongly, they can do. Perhaps even more so than MVP, Rookie of the Year tends to be decided by narrative, which has all been in Mobley’s favor over the last few months. That’s despite some great play from Barnes, who has seen his usage increase from 18.2% before All-Star to 20.3% since.

Scottie Barnes vs. Evan Mobley tonight: pic.twitter.com/72ME1DXEE0

— Ben Carlos (@BenJCarlos) March 24, 2022

A dominant performance from Barnes could have had a major impact on the race. Had he clearly outplayed Mobley and put up another near-triple-double with 25+ points, perhaps there would have been a swing towards him from voters, particularly with the Cavs slumping over the last few weeks.

Ultimately, it’s hard to see how Barnes can win the award from here. Toronto has just nine games to play. Even if they overtake Cleveland in the standings, Mobley’s role isn’t going to shrink, and Barnes would have to produce some huge nights (he has scored just 32 points over the last three games).

Mobley is a Lock

Mobley is eighth among rookies in WAR at FiveThirtyEight. He’s 76th among all players in VORP, 15 places behind Barnes. Advanced numbers aren’t going to decide the 2021-22 Rookie of the Year race, though.

Rookie Leaders:

PPG – Cade
RPG – Mobley
APG – Giddey
SPG – Jones
BPG – Mobley
3PM – Green
FG% – Mobley
3P% – Bones

This rookie class is stacked. pic.twitter.com/UTiKgj11dL

— StatMuse (@statmuse) March 24, 2022

The combination of Mobley’s skillset and Cleveland’s surprisingly competitive season makes him a lock for the award. Sure, the Raptors have overachieved relative to some expectations too, and Barnes is a far more complete player than most expected, but he hasn’t had the same tidal wave of support as Mobley throughout the season.

The Cavs and Mobley would have to lose six or seven of their remaining games for this to even be close. That might not be enough unless Barnes gets red-hot for the final couple of weeks – Thursday’s game was probably Barnes’ last chance.