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Updated NBA Series Odds After Three Heavy Underdogs Win Game 1

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Published:


Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon shoots the go-ahead three against the OKC Thunder in Game 1 on May 5, 2025
May 5, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon (32) shoots a three point basket to win game one of the second round against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
  • Road underdogs took every Game 1 in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs
  • The four teams that are trailing 1-0 are all still heavy favorites to advance
  • See the updated second-round NBA series odds for all four matchups

The start of the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs has been wildly unpredictable. Road underdogs took the first three games of the conference semifinals, but the second-round series prices still heavily favor the three teams that find themselves trailing in the NBA playoff bracket.

The table below lists the updated series odds for Celtics/Knicks, Cavaliers/Pacers, Thunder/Nuggets, and Timberwolves/Warriors, which commences tonight in Minneapolis.

NBA Second-Round Series Odds

TeamOddsGame SpreadTotal Games
#2 BOS Celtics-370-1.5 (-118)O 6.5 (+198)
#3 NY Knicks+295+1.5 (-104)U 6.5 (-250)
TeamOddsGame SpreadTotal Games
#1 CLE Cavaliers-205-1.5 (+142)O 6.5 (+172)
#4 IND Pacers+172+1.5 (-176)U 6.5 (-215)
TeamOddsGame SpreadTotal Games
#1 OKC Thunder-320-1.5 (-106)O 6.5 (+198)
#4 DEN Nuggets+260+1.5 (-114)U 6.5 (-250)
TeamOddsGame SpreadTotal Games
#6 MIN Timberwolves-194-1.5 (+116)O 5.5 (-188)
#7 GS Warriors+162+1.5 (-142)U 5.5 (+152)

Each of the better-seeded teams that finds itself trailing 1-0 remains -205 or shorter to advance to the conference final. In the fourth series, which has yet to start, the #6 Minnesota Timberwolves are -194 favorites to advance past the #7 Golden State Warriors.

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Odds as of May 6 at FanDuel. See the latest on FanDuel Missouri.

The latest NBA championship odds continue to favor the Thunder at +175, followed by the Celtics at +250, and the Cavs at +550.

Celtics vs Knicks Series Price Still Favors Boston

The Boston Celtics blew a huge 20-point second-half lead (75-55) in Game 1 against the New York Knicks on Monday night, getting outscored 25-16 in the fourth quarter of a 108-105 OT loss. Boston lost despite finishing +10 on the glass and holding New York to just 42.5% shooting from the floor, and watching the Knicks hit just 54.8% of their free-throw attempts (17-of-31).

The Celtics shot an abysmal 35.1% from the field and 25% from three (15-of-60). Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined to go a horrific 14-of-43 (32.6%).

YouTube video

Yet, the Celtics remain heavy -370 favorites to advance to the East final for the fourth consecutive season, which amounts to a 78.72% implied win probability. The Knicks are +295 longshots (25.32% implied win probability).

The opening Celtics/Knicks series price established Boston as a -800 favorite, which equaled an 88.89% implied win probability. New York was +550 (15.38%) to advance ahead of Game 1.

The Knicks won straight-up as +310 road underdogs in Game 1 and covered the 9.5-point spread by 12.5 points. The total just squeaked over the 212.5 number in OT. The teams combined for just 200 total points in regulation.

Thunder vs Nuggets Series Odds After Denver’s Stunning Game 1 Comeback

The West #1 OKC Thunder were also on the wrong end of a stunning comeback on Monday night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company were up by double-digits at halftime and looked poised to, not just win, but cover as heavy 9.5-point home favorites.

But another ludicrous night from Nikola Jokic (42 points, 22 rebounds, six assists) spurred a huge Denver comeback, which culminated with an Aaron Gordon go-ahead three with 2.8 second on the clock.

YouTube video

The Thunder, the top team in the NBA both SU and ATS in the regular season, are still -320 favorites to advance in the best-of-seven series, which is a 76.19% implied probability. The Nuggets come back as +260 underdogs (27.78%).

Before Game 1, OKC was a -700 favorite in the opening Thunder/Nuggets series price (87.50%). Denver was +500 to advance (16.67%).

Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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