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Updated NBA Rookie of the Year Odds – LaMelo Ball Still Favorite, Obi Toppin Surging After First Exhibition Games

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Mar 3, 2021 · 12:38 PM PST

LaMelo Ball
LaMelo Ball, selected by the Charlotte Hornets with the No. 3 overall pick in the NBA draft, holds up his jersey during an introductory news conference on Friday, Nov. 20, 2020, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Steve Reed)
  • LaMelo Ball the early favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year
  • Obi Toppin’s splashy opening with the Knicks surges him to second in odds
  • See below for our prediction to win the NBA ROY

We’ve barely had a chance to assess what we’ve just seen in the first week of the preseason, and already we’re looking at NBA Rookie of the Year odds. Despite a less than stellar opening, Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball is the front-runner for the award ahead of the December 22 season start.

There have been some stellar showings from the field, led by the latest great New York hope, Knicks forward Obi Toppin, who is already looking like a steal in the eight slot, displaying top-5 pick material. Oddsmakers have taken notice, vaulting him to second after opening with average odds of around +650.

2021 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Team Odds
LaMelo Ball Hornets +390
Obi Toppin Knicks +440
James Wiseman Warriors +700
Anthony Edwards Timberwolves +700
Killian Hayes Pistons +950
Bol Bol Nuggets +1800
Tyrese Haliburton Kings +2000
Deni Avdija Wizards +2700
Isaac Okoro Cavaliers +3000
Patrick Williams Bulls +3000
Cole Anthony Magic +3600

Odds taken December 15th from FanDuel

Most of these kids haven’t even logged 40 minutes of game time yet, so no need to tell you it’s very early. But it’s never too early to point out some bets that we like. Let the intrigue begin, as we try to identify the top rookie, and make you some dough.

Front Runners Report

Here’s how you overshadow an 0-fer in your NBA debut: do lots of other stuff. LaMelo Ball missed all five shots in his first game against the Raptors, but he added 10 boards and four assists in 16 minutes of work, showing the ability to make an impact without having to necessarily score the ball.

In the rematch with Toronto, he went 3-for-10 from the field for 12 points, three rebounds and a couple of dimes in 20 minutes. He also nailed a couple of threes, which is encouraging, as his shooting is definitely a work in progress.

Conversely, Obi Toppin looked NBA-ready in his first game against the Pistons. The Dayton star did work on the right block, which looks like his comfort zone when attacking. He also had a chance to show off those exciting hops. He finished 4-for-9 for 11 points and seven rebounds.

At this point, a star emerging in New York is going to get overhyped, and should have plenty of ROY buzz. We’ll see how he looks for an encore Wednesday.

Top Of The Class

Don’t worry about Anthony Edwards. The Georgia product may have only finished with five points on 2-for-9 shooting, with four rebounds, one assist and five fouls in 26 minutes of work in his opener against the Grizzlies, but there’s so many factors to consider. COVID has busted up a lot of team plans, so preparation, timing and chemistry are all nearly at starting points.

The only worry for me is the Minnesota environment, which could hinder his development under what is expected to be a hail of losses. Still, he’s got all the #1 pick tools, and at this value, could be worth a sprinkle.

Ditto for Golden State big James Wiseman, who’s been sidelined over COVID concerns and yet to debut. A generous set of odds for the no. 2 overall pick as well, who should slot into an important role on a team that needs everything he brings to the table to compete in the loaded West.

Keep An Eye Out

That bottom half of the top 10 are super strong value wagers. Deni Avdija — who many experts think could eventually be the best player to come out of this draft — was lights out in his debut, a perfect 6-for-6 from the floor, including three money balls, for 15 points and four boards in 24 tidy minutes of work for the Wizards.

If he’s as good as advertised, sky’s the limit with Russ and Bradley Beal likely getting him the most open spot-up shots of any rook. He also looks like a secondary option with the ball in his hands.

Speaking of shooting, that’s found gold for the Cavaliers, who didn’t think that was coming from this quickly from top draft pick Isaac Okoro. He also had the most memorable finish of any frosh, canning the game winner against Indiana to start his career. In two games, he’s potted 33 points on a crisp 10-for-16 shooting, including 3-for-5 from downtown.

And perhaps the Kings got this draft right after butchering the 2018 year and passing on Luka Doncic. Tyrese Haliburton looks like a special, do-it-all dynamo for the Kings. After a quiet opener against Portland, he showcased in the rematch, potting 11 points, seven assists, six rebounds, a block and a steal while looking very competent running the offense.

Best Bet

It’s probably Toppin at this point, but where’s the fun in the favorites? We haven’t seen him play yet, but athletic big men that can shoot, run and defend are the go-to unicorns in the NBA, which is everything that Wiseman possesses. The Dubs’ ticket back to the playoffs likely rests on his ability to assume more responsibilities than a rookie should.

If you’re looking for more value, have a look at Avdija’s next game against Detroit. If he’s still making it look this easy, I’d encourage a wager on the Israeli national.

The picks: Wiseman (+700) and Avdija (+2700)

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