Upcoming Match-ups

2018-19 NBA Win Totals Advice: Be Wary of the Warriors

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Aug 8, 2018 · 11:43 AM PDT

Steph Curry shoots over Marcin Gortat.
Golden State may be one of the elite teams of all time, but they may not show it during the NBA regular season. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr)
  • Golden State leads the NBA’s win projection totals for next season at 65.5
  • Can the Lakers win 50+ games with LeBron leading the charge?
  • Are the Hawks a safe bet t win less than 26 games?

It’s perhaps no coincidence that the Golden State Warriors, seeking a three-peat and their fourth title in five years, top the NBA total wins predictions for the upcoming regular season. But picking the Dubs to win another championship is a different ballgame than picking win totals.

Last season, their total was set at 67.5. Not only did the Warriors fail to go over, but they didn’t even reach 60 wins. Easy money? Well, easy if you predicted one of the most talented teams ever assembled would win a game less than the Toronto Raptors.

Sure, they battled injuries, but much of the battle they encountered was with themselves: motivation, hunger, and attention to detail wavered greatly during the regular season. Of course, as you witnessed in the playoffs, the “on” switch got flipped, and they wrecked the league.

Turns out, playing at a high level year in and year out takes its toll. The Dubs tried to address that issue this offseason (more on that below), but it remains to be seen how many wins they’ll rack up between October and April.

That’s why we’re here. On to the odds.

2018-19 Regular Season NBA Win Totals

Team Win Totals Odds
Golden State Warriors 65.5 (+110o/-130u)
Boston Celtics 58.5 (-110o/-110u)
Houston Rockets 57.5 (+105o/-125u)
Toronto Raptors 54.5 (-140o/+120u)
Philadelphia 76ers 53.5 (-120o/+100u)
 Los Angeles Lakers 49.5 (+105o/-125u)
Utah Jazz 48.5 (-110o/-110u)
Oklahoma City Thunder 47.5 (-125o/+105u)
Milwaukee Bucks 44.5 (-120o/+100u)
Indiana Pacers 44.5 (-115o/-105u)

The Lead-Pipe Locks

San Antonio Spurs (over): We’ve chronicled this in detail before, but DeMar DeRozan is ready to work. This team won 47 games with Kawhi Leonard showing up for spot duty nine times. They are not getting worse. I can’t emphasize this enough.

Golden State Warriors (under): This team is built for 70 wins, but they’ll likely be on cruise control, trying to stay healthy, keep their rotations intact, and be ready come playoff time.

(Golden State) is built for 70 wins, but they’ll likely be on cruise control trying to stay healthy.

They’ll still be top three in every major offensive category including scoring (1st last year), field-goal percentage (1st), three-point percentage (1st) and assists (1st).

What will help them this year, much like when they fell to Cleveland in 2015, is adding a superstar who is hungry for success. It was Kevin Durant in the summer of 2016, and this year, it’s Boogie Cousins. Even if it’s boring, you know people will be watching.

2018-19 NBA Regular Season Win Totals

Team Win Totals Odds
Denver Nuggets 44.5 (-120o/+100u)
Washington Wizards 44.5 (-110o/-110u)
San Antonio Spurs 44.5 (-140o/+120u)
Minnesota Timberwolves 44.5 (-110o/-110u)
New Orleans Pelicans 43.5 (-120o/+100u)
Portland Trail Blazers 42.5 (-110o/-110u)
Detroit Pistons 40.5 (-105o/-115u)
Miami Heat 40.5 (-125o/+105u)
New York Knicks 32.5 (+130o/-130u)
Cleveland Cavaliers 31.5 (-110o/-110u)

Worth the Investment

Minnesota Timberwolves (under): They are not getting to 45 wins (they finishing 47-35 last year). Jimmy Butler is all-world, but his knees have been run into the ground by head coach Tom Thibodeau’s win-at-all-costs mentality. Butler’s voice, however? That appears to be in bad shape from the jump.

While Karl Anthony Towns is a developing star in training (his offense is arriving much faster than his defense), Andrew Wiggins is regressing and there are real chemistry issues, mostly Butler not appreciating the lackadaisical effort of the young core. This is not good. Unless you’re banging the under.

Los Angeles Lakers (over): LeBron James and 50 wins are virtually synonymous. After his first two years (35 and 42 wins), he’s only missed cracking 50 one other time (07-08). By the way, It’s Christmas in August! And the NBA couldn’t have handled the marquee schedule any better.

Indiana Pacers (over): I get the reluctance, but this team is clearly in position to snatch a top-four seed in the East. They have a superstar in Victor Oladipo, and they had a quietly effective offseason that saw them round out the roster. The additions of Tyreke Evans and Doug McDermott have this team built for the 50-win range.

Denver Nuggets (over): This is an altitude bet. The Nuggets’ good teams have traditionally feasted at home, as road weary teams simply can’t keep up in the rare air. Their current brand of basketball may not run you out of the gym, but it does pick you apart beautifully, piece by piece.

Last year, they went 31-10 at home, the first time they’ve cracked 30 since the ‘Melo-Billups days. They’d need just 15 more wins away from home to get there. Really liked the Isiah Thomas pick up. If he pans out, this is a really nice team.

2018-19 NBA Regular Season Win Totals

Team Win Totals  Odds
Los Angeles Clippers 40.5 (+135o/-155u)
Charlotte Hornets 35.5 (-110o/-110u)
Dallas Mavericks 34.5 (-125o/+105u)
Memphis Grizzlies 31.5 (-145u/+125o)
Orlando Magic 30.5 (-110o/-110u)
Chicago Bulls 28.5 (-115o/-105u)
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 (-130o/+110u)
Phoenix Suns 27.5 (-110o/-110u)
Sacramento Kings 26.5 (-110o/-110u)
Atlanta Hawks 26.5 (+100o/-120u)

Mercy Bets

Orlando Magic (under): This team is literally what would happen if Dr. Moreau constructed a roster on his island. The Magic are sad, and will need to get sadder before they and their fans can get happy. How about an Aaron Gordon highlight?

Drafting Mo Bamba, while making sense, just adds to the glut of big men in a league that now calls for athletic wing players and shot creators. Well, Orlando fans, at least you get a reprieve – one less ‘home’ game!

Atlanta Hawks (under): I’m sure you came across this quote when scrolling your hoops timelines. It’s from ageless wonder Vince Carter, who recently inked a one-year deal with the Hawks.

View this post on Instagram

VC ain't about that life

A post shared by TSN (@tsn_official) on

Forgive me for saying this, but what the hell are you talking about, Vince? You’ve never been one for ring chasing, that’s fine, but is it cool to toil in the NBA hinterlands in dead zones like Atlanta and Sacramento?

Most competitive teams can certainly use him for at least ten minutes a night. That’s not ring chasing, that’s just a chance to ride out on a high note. It definitely won’t be with the Hawks – but it will be for you if you take the under.

Author Image