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Baylor Laying 5-Points at Home to Surprisingly Undefeated Butler – Picks & Odds

Butler Bulldogs coach
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - DECEMBER 07: Butler Bulldogs head coach LaVall Jordan celebrates on the sidelines during the men's college basketball game between the Florida Gators and Butler Bulldogs on December 7, 2019, at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)
  • No. 18 Butler squares off with No. 11 Baylor on Tuesday night (Dec. 10, 9:00 PM ET)
  • The Bulldogs (9-0) are one of only eight undefeated teams in the nation
  • The Bears (7-1) have already beaten two Top 25 teams this season

No. 18 Butler puts its undefeated record on the line Tuesday night (Dec. 10, 9:00 PM ET) against No. 11 Baylor. The Bulldogs are off to their first 9-0 start in 13 years, but still opened as 5-point road underdogs to the 7-1 Bears.

The line has slightly moved in favor of the home team, as the Bears are now 5.5 point favorites in the Butler vs Baylor odds.

No. 18 Butler vs No. 11 Baylor Odds

Team Spread Total
Butler Bulldogs +5.5 (-105) Over 131.5 (-110)
Baylor Bears -5.5 (-115) Under 131.5 (-110)

Odds taken Dec. 9

Both programs have excelled against the spread this season. Butler is 7-2 ATS so far, while Baylor has covered six of its first eight games. Five of the Bulldogs nine wins have come against power conference opponents and they’re one of only eight undefeated teams remaining in the nation.

Taking a Bite Out of the Gators

Prior to this past weekend, Butler lacked a signature win on their resume, but that changed on Saturday. The Bulldogs waxed preseason darling Florida by 14 points for their 56th consecutive non-conference home victory.

Butler shot 52% from the floor and a season-high 45% from beyond the arc. Four players scored in double-figures and they won the rebounding battle for the eighth time in nine games.

For the season, the Bulldogs are shooting 49.6%, which leads the Big East and ranks 18th nationally. On defense, they allow just 56.2 points per game, which is the ninth fewest in the country, and only three opponents have eclipsed the 60-point mark against them.

They commit the second fewest turnovers per game in all of college basketball, and opponents are knocking down just 26.5% of their three-point attempts. They’ve won all but one of their first nine contests by at least eight points, but Baylor will be by far their stiffest test yet.

The Bears Are for Real

Baylor was a +6600 National Championship long shot when the 2020 NCAA Tournament odds were released in July and have since seen its price shortened by nearly 40%. They suffered their lone loss in the second game of the season versus Washington and have reeled off six straight wins since.

Two of those victories were over Top 25 opponents including this past weekend against No. 15 Arizona.

The Bears were ice cold on offense, hitting just 30% of their shots, but played nearly flawless defense. They limited the Wildcats to just 26.9% from the floor and held them to 26 points below their season average. Baylor is allowing just 61.3 points per game this season and a 39% opponent field goal percentage. They’ve allowed just one team to exceed 67 points against them and Tuesday’s tilt with Butler has all the ingredients for a tightly contested, low scoring affair.

Play The Under

Both these teams rank inside the top-13 in KenPom’s efficiency ratings and excel on defense. 67% of the Bears games have gone under the total and only four have exceeded 130 points all year. The Bulldogs meanwhile, are fresh off their two most dominant defensive performances of the season and should be able to keep this Butler offense in check.

Butler has lost 12 straight games to ranked opponents dating back to 2017, and although that streak is bound to end soon, the more prudent play in this game is the under. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut and points are going to be very hard to come by.

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