Duke Sees Title Odds Fade to +1000 After Stunning Home Loss to Stephen F. Austin

• The odds of the Duke Blue Devils winning the NCAA Basketball Championship jumped from +900 to +1000
• Duke was stunned 85-83 by unheralded Stephen F. Austin on Tuesday
• The Blue Devils were 28-point favorites in the game

The experts figured that this season could be a bit of a downturn for the Duke Blue Devils, at least from their usual high standards. And that was before they were downed by Stephen F. Austin.

Tuesday, the 5-1 Lumberjacks toppled the #1-ranked 6-1 Blue Devils 85-83 in overtime on a buzzer-beating layup by Nathan Bain. The outcome sent shock waves through NCAA basketball.

Duke was a 28-point favorite at home in the game.

The loss also impacted the NCAA Tournament Championship odds of the Blue Devils, although not as significantly as someone might’ve expected following such a dramatic upset.

Across the leading sportsbooks, Duke’s odds to win it all this season climbed to +1000.

2020 NCAA Tournament Championship Odds

Odds taken November 26th. 
The Blue Devils were at average odds of +900 prior to Tuesday’s setback.

Blueprint to Beat the Blue Devils?

The Blue Devils had gone 150 games without losing a home game to a non-conference opponent. St. John’s beat the Blue Devils 83-82 in overtime on Feb. 26, 2000. Curiously, the Blue Devils didn’t play another OT game at home until Tuesday.

ICYMI: Stephen F. Austin UPSET No. 1 Duke, snapping the Blue Devils' 150-game winning streak against non-conference opponents at home ?pic.twitter.com/x6xsdesWkL

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 27, 2019

Stephen F. Austin came into the game off a loss to Rutgers. Duke blew a 15-point first-half lead against the Lumberjacks, as some of the critics’ concerns about the Blue Devils were emphatically on display.

Duke’s perimeter shooting in the second half was abysmal. Other than Tre Jones off the dribble, there wasn’t a Bue Devils player who looked capable of consistently hitting an outside shot. Cassius Stanley missed a mid-range jumper at the buzzer than would’ve won it for Duke in regulation.

19 years. 150 games.

These were the starters the last time Duke lost to a non-conference opponent at home ? pic.twitter.com/RNZDcTKL0J

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 27, 2019

Because of this poor shooting, Stephen F. Austin was able to offer defensive help on Jones, since they didn’t have to be concerned about any other Duke players draining one from the floor.

Defensively, the deficiencies of the Blue Devils were also exposed. Duke surrendered 64 points in the paint.

Stephen F. Austin’s Stunning Achievement

The Lumberjacks lost by 12 to Rutgers. They came into the game with the Blue Devils rated 253rd in the KenPom rankings. Duke was #1. Stephen F. Austin’s biggest prior win this season was over #232 Drexel.

Biggest NCAA Basketball Upsets Since 2004

The Lumberjacks only shot 48.6 percent from the field, and were 2-of-10 from 3-point range. But Duke turned the ball over 22 times, eight of those turnovers committed by Jones and six of the Blue Devils turnovers coming in OT. Duke’s bench was outscored 27-7.

As upsets go, it was the biggest in NCAA D-1 men’s basketball since 2007, when 26-point underdog Gardner-Webb took down #20 Kentucky.

Wide-Open Field

If anyone doubted the preseason suggestions that there was no dominant, powerhouse school in NCAA basketball this season, the naysayers have since been silenced.

Duke is already the third #1-ranked team in the AP Top 25 poll to be toppled. Michigan State fell to Kentucky. Kentucky lost to Evansville. And now Duke went down to Stephen F. Austin.

Updated Goodman Top 25 … with a new No. 1 team and a major drop for Duke: pic.twitter.com/egja5yoqvY

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) November 27, 2019

Losing Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish to the NBA, the Blue Devils figured to be in tough when it cam to running with the NCAA’s big guns. But it was an NCAA pop gun who took them down.

This isn’t the year to bet on Duke.