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Duke vs Michigan State Odds, Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, Nov. 14

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Nov 14, 2023 · 3:35 PM PST

Duke Blue Devils players huddling on the court
Nov 10, 2023; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Jared McCain (0) guard Tyrese Proctor (5) and forward Mark Mitchell (25) huddle during the second half against the Arizona Wildcats at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
  • Both #9 Duke and #18 Michigan State will be desperate to avoid their second loss of the season when they meet on Tuesday in Chicago
  • The Blue Devils are small neutral-court favorites at the United Center
  • Get the Duke vs Michigan State odds, spread, predictions and picks for Nov. 14

Tuesday night at the United Center in Chicago, the #9 Duke Blue Devils (1-1, 0-0 neutral, 1-1 ATS) will try to recover from their first loss of the season when they face the #18 MIchigan State Spartans (1-1, 0-0 neutral, 1-1 ATS) at 7:00 pm ET. Duke fell 78-73 at home to Arizona on Friday as 4.5-point chalk.

After losing its opener to James Madison in OT (79-76) as16.5-point home favorites, Michigan State recorded its first win of the season last Thursday, thrashing Southern Indiana 74-51.  The Duke vs MSU odds suggest it’s the Spartans who will fall back below .500.

Duke vs Michigan State Odds

Team Point Spread Moneyline Total
Duke Blue Devils -4.5 (-110) -155 O 141.5 (-110)
Michigan State Spartans +4.5 (-110) +130 U 141.5 (-110)

Tuesday’s college basketball odds list the Blue Devils as 3.5-point neutral-court favorites and -155 on the moneyline. The total has moved down a point from 142.5 to 141.5 over the past 12 hours. ESPN is carrying the broadcast of this game, followed by #1 Kansas vs #17 Kentucky.

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Odds as of Nov. 14 at ESPN Bet. As of 3:00 pm ET on Tuesday, the ESPN Bet promo code is available to claim, granting new customers $250 in bonus bets by using the promo code DIME

Duke started the season as the second-favorite in the odds to win March Madness. The Blue Devils have faded to fourth (+1300) at DraftKings, behind Kansas, Purdue, and Kentucky, but still ahead of MSU (+1800).

Duke’s Filipowski, Roach Start Strong

For the first time since the DeMarcus Nelson era (2006-2008), Duke saw its leading scorer from the previous season return to school. Sophomore center Kyle Filipowski, who started the season trailing only reigning-winner Zach Edey in the Wooden Award odds, is off to a very strong start, averaging 25.0 points and 7.5 rebounds through the first two games, while shooting 62.5% from the field and 57.1% from three. He had 25 points, eight rebounds, two steals, and a block in the loss to Arizona in 31 minutes. In the season opener, he had 25 points and seven boards in just 27 minutes while steamrolling Dartmouth (92-54).

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Fellow returnee Jeremy Roach has provided solid secondary scoring in the backcourt. The senior guard has averaged 15.5 points and 3.0 assists on 52% shooting. Duke’s trio of highly-touted freshman haven’t been as productive, however: Jared McCain (8.5 PPG, 2.5 APG, 40.0 FG%), Caleb Foster (7.5 PPG, 60.0 FG%), and Sean Stewart (4.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG) were all among ESPN’s top-25 recruits in the 2023 class. Only McCain is in Jon Scheyer’s starting lineup and he has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio so far this season (three assists, four turnovers).

Michigan State a One-Man Tyson Walker Show

Apart from losing Joey Hauser’s 14.4 and 7.0 rebounds per game, MSU returns the rest of its top-five scorers from last season, including leading-scorer Tyson Walker (14.8 PPG last year). Early in the season, the senior guard has raised his game, and then some. Walker has averaged 24.5 PPG this year along with 3.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists on 54.5% shooting. No other Spartan is averaging in double-figures. Michigan’s stunning loss to James Madison dropped the team from 13th in the KenPom ratings all the way to 24th. (They fell another six spots to 30th after the win against Southern Indiana, but that was more about the teams below them boosting their ratings.)

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Oddsmakers were high on the Spartans heading into the year, and the optimism was understandable. MSU went a respectable 21-13 last year and earned a #7 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where they beat both #10 USC and #2 Marquette before bowing out to #3 Kansas State. Two-time national champion Tom Izzo was returning the vast majority of his key pieces while adding 6’11 freshman Xavier Booker, the #16 recruit in the country, plus two other top-30 recruits (Coen Carr and Jeremy Fears).

Duke vs Michigan State Prediction

Duke doesn’t return quite as much production as MSU, but it returns higher-quality production in the form of Filipowski and Roach. Scheyer’s team missed out on the ACC regular-season title by one game last year before romping to the conference-tournament title, which included an 85-78 win over the same Miami squad that would go onto the Final Four. It will take some time to fully integrate the talented freshmen, but as mentioned, only one is a starter on this unusually-veteran Blue Devil roster.

  • Duke vs MSU pick: Duke -3.5 (-110)
  • Sascha Paruk’s 2023 NCAA basketball betting record: 3-1 ATS

 

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