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Final Four Odds Movement – Point Spread Growing in Kansas vs Villanova

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Mar 31, 2022 · 10:58 AM PDT

Kansas guards Ochai Agbaji and Jalen Coleman-Lands celebrate a win with teammate Zach Clemence
Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji (30), guard Jalen Coleman-Lands (55) and forward Zach Clemence (21) celebrate after defeating Texas during overtime in an NCAA college basketball game in Lawrence, Kan., Saturday, March 5, 2022. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
  • The Duke vs UNC point spread is trending towards the underdog Tar Heels
  • The Kansas vs Villanova line is moving in favor of the favored Jayhawks
  • Below, see the early line movement in both Final Four games

The opening odds for both Final Four games – Kansas vs Villanova and Duke vs UNC – came out last Sunday night. Both sharps and the betting public have had a few days to put their money down and shift the line.

The first table below shows the early line movement in the all-ACC battle between Duke and North Carolina. The second table shows the line movement in Kansas vs Villanova.

Duke vs North Carolina Odds Movement

Team Opening Spread Current Spread Opening Moneyline Current Moneyline
(2) Duke -4.5 (-112) +4.0 (-108) -200 -200
(8) North Carolina +4.5 (-108) -4.0 (-112) +165 +163

Current odds as of March 31 at Barstool Sportsbook

This line is trending towards the underdog Tar Heels. Duke opened as a 4.5-point favorite over UNC and that’s now sitting at four flat.

Curiously, the moneyline has barely moved. Duke remains at -200 while UNC shortened incrementally from +165 to +163.

The table above doesn’t list the total, but that’s where there has been the most movement.  The total opened at 150 and has been bet up a full point to 151 (-110 both ways).

The two regular-season matchups between these teams went over this number. The first (in Chapel Hill) ended 87-67 (154 total points) in favor of Duke. The rematch in Durham was an offensive outburst with the teams combining for 175 points in a 94-81 UNC victory.

Kansas vs Villanova Odds Movement

Team Opening Spread Current Spread Opening Moneyline Current Moneyline
(1) Kansas -3.5 (-110) -4.5 (-108) -165 -195
(2) Villanova +3.5 (-110) +4.5 (-112) +145 +165

Current odds as of March 31 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Unlike the Duke/UNC matchup, the Kansas vs Villanova odds are trending toward the favorite. Kansas opened as a 3.5-point favorite versus Villanova but is now sitting at -4.5.

The Jayhawks’ moneyline has shortened from -165 to -195 while Nova has faded from +145 to +165.

The injury to Villanova guard Justin Moore is likely playing a big part in this. KenPom predicts a one-point Kansas win in this neutral-court matchup, yet the early money is driving the line further from that benchmark.

The total has moved a full point in this game, as well. After opening at 132, it’s been bet up to 133.

While Duke/UNC have two regular-season games to use to handicap, Kansas and Villanova did not play before meeting in the NCAA Tournament bracket. Nor did they play last year.

The last meeting between the teams came on Dec. 21, 2019, with Kansas winning an ultra-low-scoring affair 55-54 in Pennsylvania.

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