- Providence is an 11.5-point favorite over Georgetown
- Georgetown has lost its last four, 0-4 ATS
- Read below for analysis and a betting prediction
No. 21 Providence (14-2, 4-1 Big East is a 13.5-point home favorite over Georgetown in a Big East game at 5 pm ET Thursday on FS1. Providence has played only once beating St. John’s 83-73 on Jan. 8 because of a Covid pause in its program.
Georgetown (6-8, 0-3 Big East) lost its first three Big East games — to Marquette, Butler and St. John’s — by a combined 61 points following a 19-day Covid pause. The line moved two points in the Hoyas’ favor in three hours after it was released.
Georgetown vs Providence Odds
|Georgetown Hoyas||+525||+11.5 (-110)||Over 145.5 (-110)|
|Providence Friars||-750||-11.5 (-110)||Under 145.5 (-110)|
Odds from BetMGM on Jan. 19.
No. 21 Providence is a lopsided 11.5-point home favorite over Georgetown, and the total is at a relatively high 145.5. The Friars’ moneyline price of -750 means that they have a high 88.2% implied win probability. The Hoyas’ +525 moneyline price translates into a 16.0% implied winning percentage.
The Friars’ odds are still drastically better than the Hoyas’ though. Georgetown is +7500 to make the Final Four and +24000 to win the national championship.
Respect Friars’ Elders
Part of Providence’s success is due to the veteran leadership it suits up every night. Ed Cooley’s rotation includes five fifth-year seniors, led by center 6’10 Nate Watson, who was named to the watch list for the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Award and is a member of the Big East preseason all-league team.
Watson leads the Friars with 14.1 points and 6/3 rebounds. Super-seniors Indiana transfer 6’4 Al Durham (13.3 points, 3.1 assists) and South Carolina transfer 6’7 Justin Minaya also start, as does returning super senior Noah Horchler (9.8 points. 8.4 rebounds).
Fourth-year guard 6’6 A.J. Reeves (10.7 points, 3.1 assists) is the usual fifth starter, but he has missed the last two games because of a finger injury on his non-shooting hand suffered in a 70-53 victory at DePaul on New Year’s Day. His status for the game is unknown.
https://t.co/4XOkZfzYg4 Top-10 RQ (Record Quality) for 1/17/2022:
1. Auburn (0.626)
2. Wisconsin (0.589)
3. Providence (0.541)
4. Kansas (0.540)
5. LSU (0.522)
6. Baylor (0.506)
7. Arizona (0.500)
8. Colorado State (0.490)
9. Purdue (0.486)
10. Michigan State (0.471)
— Erik Haslam (@haslametrics) January 17, 2022
Fourth-year junior guard 5’10 Jared Bynum average 8.0 points and 3.7 assists off the bench. The average age of the top nine players in the Providence rotation is 22.1 years. Watson has played in 138 games, Durham has played in 139 and Horchler has played in 103.
Georgetown vs Providence Head-to-Head History
Georgetown leads the season series 47-30, and all but two games have been played since the formation of the Big East in 1979. Providence is 19-15 at home in the series and has won six of the last seven, 4-3 ATS. It has been the favorite of seven points or fewer in six of those.
Hats off to @thekaidenrice for having a MedStar Health Milestone Game! He scored his 1️⃣4️⃣0️⃣0️⃣th career point on a night where he tallied ✋ 3️⃣pointers!#HOYASAXA | @MedStarHealth pic.twitter.com/4vuSNPZo6R
— Georgetown Hoops (@GeorgetownHoops) January 17, 2022
Georgetown has won three of the last five (3-2 ATS) in the series but Providence has won 11 of the last 15 (9-6 ATS). Georgetown won the lone meeting last season, 73-72 at home as a 4.5-point underdog after a 21-day Covid pause in the program.
The total has gone under in eight of the last 10 meetings in Providence.
Friars’ Strong start
Providence is off to its best start since 2015-16, when it opened 14-1 and reached No. 8 in the AP Top 25 in early January. It was also the last time the Friars made the NCAA tournament. Providence, seeded ninth in the East, beat USC in the first round before losing to top seed North Carolina. The Friars finished 24-11 that year.
Friars’ opponents are shooting 39.8 shooting percent from the field a mere 11.8 turnovers per game.
The most significant college basketball betting trends heading into this one are that Providence has covered eight of its last 10 while Georgetown has covered only three of its last 11. Georgetown is 0-2 straight up in true road games and 0-2 ATS.
The total might be worth some play. Providence has gone over the total in its last two games but was under the previous six, with the number usually in the mid-130s. Georgetown has been under its it last two and three of its last six, with the total coming in under 136.5 (slow Butler) and 161.5 (fast St. John’s) in the last two.
Covid Hurts Hoyas
Not only has coach Patrick Ewing missed the previous two games while in health and safety protocols, but also the Hoyas have been without guards Dante Harris and Donald Carey at times during their recent losing streak.
After missing two of the previous four games, point guard Harris scored 13 points the last time out in an 88-69 loss at St. John’s. Carey (12.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists) missed the last three games with an undisclosed illness but is expected to return against Providence.
Georgetown lost its way in the second half against St. John’s, when they gave up 29 points off turnovers, and finished the game shooting less than 40 percent from the field for the third straight game. They are gone 16 from 60 from distance (26.7 percent) in the last three.
Volume distance shooter Kaiden Rice (13.5 points, 10 3-point attempts per game) and freshman Aminu Mohammed (13.8 points, 8.6 rebounds) have numbers, but the Hoyas are sloppy. They are shooting 42.1 percent from the floor and are committing 14.8 turnovers per game, 307 in Division I.
Georgetown vs Providence Prediction
Georgetown is expected to have its full group available for the game and, for their faults, the Hoyas can put the ball in the basket. The points are the play against a team that has been idle for 12 days.
The pick: Georgetown +11.5 (-110)