Houston vs Memphis Odds, Spread & Picks for AAC Title Game

• Houston are 5.5-point favorites over the Memphis Tigers in AAC Tournament final on Sunday, March 12
• Memphis routed Tulane 94-54 in the semifinal but lost twice against Houston this season
• Below, see the Houston vs Memphis odds and picks for Sunday

Now, this AAC title game between the top-seeded Houston Cougars (30-2, 18-14 ATS) and second-seeded Memphis (24-8, 16-15-1 ATS) appears to be even. Houston swept Memphis but barely during the regular season.

Oddsmakers are on the Cougars when it comes to this game as numbers have been right around five to seven points, depending on the site.

Houston vs Memphis Odds

Houston is set as the #1 seed in the South Region, while Memphis is the #8 seed in the East when it comes to the projected March Madness bracket. Houston is considered a favorite in the March Madness odds.

Tip-off for this clash is set for 3:15 pm ET on Sunday March 12 at the Dickies Arena from Fort Worth, Texas. The game is will be on ESPN. Houston was set as a -250 favorite to win their conference tourney finale versus the Tigers.

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Odds as of March 11 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Houston vs Memphis Betting Trends

The people expected to tilt more toward Houston in this third meeting of the season. Despite Memphis and their ability to stay close, the public spread splits are tilting in favor of the Cougars once again  Public moneyline splits are again within 5.5 to 6.5 points mostly which makes some sense for a neutral site. One looks toward Houston’s ability play defense late in games as a reason to side with the Cougars.

As far as the total of 135 points, the over/under is set pretty well. Also, consider the first matchup saw 136 points total while the second came in at 132. Memphis tempo wise could not get out of the mid 60’s which speaks volumes to the Houston defense. The Cougars held the Tigers to 35.8% shooting compared to 44.2% in the first meeting. Both teams carry an athleticism about them, but the Cougars showed that final kick.

Memphis Fires In Statement Against Tulane

It is the idea that Memphis started hot shooting and never truly stopped against Tulane. The Tigers were up by more than 20 points quickly and that lead kept growing. By the end of the game, the Green Wave was glad this one was over. When a game is decided by 40 points, that is a real eye opener even in a conference semifinal.

GRANJA HIT'S A 3 POINTER…FIRST CAREER BASKET!

Memphis' 40-point blowout of Tulane…a team that swept Memphis in the regular season…is the largest margin of victory in any conference semifinal or final.#GoTigersGo #Memphis #MemphisTigers #Tulane pic.twitter.com/mHdhablQXK

— Steven (@stevenconway2) March 12, 2023

Memphis ranks 23rd in the nation in scoring at 79.5 points per game. Kendric Davis and Deandre Williams provide quite the 1-2 offensive punch (both from Houston by the way) and average 38.5 points per contest. The senior duo is beyond motivated in this third meeting with the number one team in the nation. In their second meeting, the two Texans came up a little small. Now, the Tigers have a chance to advance their seeding in the tournament.  Also, they carry a significant advantage.

Houston May Be Without Marcus Sasser

Yes, no player from Houston is near the top of the Wooden Award odds, as Kendric Davis (+22500) is an extreme long shot at best from Memphis. However, Marcus Sasser is the lifeblood of the Houston defense and scoring leader at 17.1 points per game for the Cougars. The groin injury he suffered makes one wonder how effective can be on Sunday.

UH senior guard Marcus Sasser will be a game time decision for tomorrow's AAC Tournament title game against Memphis.

He's a big part of this @UHCougarMBK team…and if he doesn't play, this battle tested team will no doubt try and deliver another championship for him. @KHOU pic.twitter.com/YoQJej1Eci

— Daniel Gotera (@DTGoteraKHOU) March 12, 2023

Now, Houston remains a dangerous team. After all, the Cougars blew out Cincinnati 69-48 as they held the Bearcats to 25 second-half points. Jamal Shead and J’wan Roberts stepped up with 16 points each. Consider the fact that Sasser only played nine minutes on Saturday. The Cougars showed a lot of mettle holding down a 21-win Cincinnati team. Will Houston find a way to do it one more time on Sunday afternoon? Bluntly, this depends on Sasser and his ability to fire up his teammates.

Houston vs Memphis Prediction

Memphis has the ability to beat Houston. Penny Hardaway feels little or no pressure here as the Tigers are just trying to improve their seeding. Houston remains a trendy pick to win the national title while Memphis may be starting to peak at a good time. The safe pick appears to be taking Memphis with the points. Timing is everything but a small wager for the Tigers to win outright (+250) is not outrageous either.

Pick: Memphis Tigers +5.5 points (-110)