Iowa vs Purdue Odds, Spread, Picks & Prediction (Dec. 4)

• Coming off its first loss of the season, Purdue hosts Iowa in the Hawkeyes’ Big Ten opener
• The Boilermakers are 12.5-point home favorites on Monday night in West Lafayette
• See all the Iowa vs Purdue odds and picks for Dec. 4, 2023

The #1 Purdue Boilermakers  (7-1, 4-0 home, 4-2-2 ATS) look to rebound from their first loss of the new campaign on Monday when they welcome the Iowa Hawkeyes (5-2, 0-1 away, 3-4 ATS) to Mackey Arena for a 7:00 pm ET tip.

Looking to defend both the Big Ten regular-season and tournament title, the Boilermakers are in an early hole after falling to Northwestern (92-88 OT) in their first conference game of the season on Friday. But oddsmakers still see Zach Edey’s team as a prohibitively short home favorite on Monday night.

Iowa vs Purdue Odds

Purdue is a 12.5-point home favorite in Monday’s college basketball odds and -900 on the moneyline. Iowa, which is playing its first Big Ten game of the season tonight, is a +600 underdog to pull off the upset. The total is at 163, the highest of the day’s NCAA games.

Odds as of Dec. 4 on the Caesars Sportsbook app. New users can claim a Caesars promo code to bet on Iowa vs Purdue.

Purdue (+1014) is currently the betting favorite in the odds to win March Madness. Iowa is a +13786 longshot, on average.

Purdue Lets Northwestern Game Slip Away

A 5.5-point road favorite at Northwestern, Purdue looked like it would not only maintain its perfect record, but also get the cover when it took a 40-32 lead into halftime. The Wildcats  outscored Purdue 18-9 early in the second, though, to take a 50-49 lead in a game they would ultimately win in overtime.

Two factors led to Purdue’s collapse: three-point shooting and turnovers. Northwestern went 10-20 from three, while Purdue was a dismal 5-19 (26.3%). The Wildcats also committed just three turnovers in the entire game, compared to 17 for Purdue. That made up for Purdue’s absurd 52-27 rebounding advantage.

Purdue surged to the #1 spot in the polls on the strength of wins over Gonzaga (73-63 neutral), Tennessee (71-67 neutral), and Marquette (78-75 neutral), all of whom are rated 11th or better at KenPom.

Center Zach Edey (23.5 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 2.9 BPG) remains the betting favorite in the Wooden Award odds. Unlike last year, when the Boilermakers were an Edey-or-bust offense, Purdue actually has decent perimeter shooting this season. Led by Braden Smith (45.8%), the team sits ninth in all of Division I in three-point percentage (40.9%), up from 276th (32.2%) last year.

But as evidenced by the Northwestern game, that hot start from deep is likely to regress over the next few weeks.

Transfer Krikke Leading Iowa Offense

Head coach Fran McCaffery had work to do this offseason after losing leading-scorer Kris Murray (20.2 PPG) to the NBA and second-leading scorer Filip Rebraca (14.1 PPG) to graduation. He added 6’9 senior Ben Krikke, who averaged 19.4 PPG and 4.5 APG as a junior with Valparaiso last season, and the move has payed immediate dividends.

Krikke leads Iowa at 18.7 PPG while shooting 61.4% from the field and 75.7% from the line. Like Purdue, the 2023-24 edition of the Hawkeyes is shooting at a better clip from three than its predecessor (35.6% versus 34.0%), though neither team takes many attempts, relatively speaking. Iowa is just 260th in the country in three-point attempts per game (19.3), while Purdue is 232nd (20.5).

Iowa lost to its two toughest opponents so far, falling 92-84 at Creighton (but covering as 12-point underdogs) and 79-67 to Oklahoma on a neutral court in San Diego. The Hawkeyes’ best win was an 85-72 rout of Seton Hall (also in San Diego) as 1.5-point chalk.

Concerningly, Iowa doesn’t have a player over 6’9 who’s averaging more than 15 minutes per game, and its lack of size is showing up in the stats sheet. The Hawkeyes are 172nd in the nation in offensive rebound percentage, and 202nd at the defensive end. Led by 7’4 Edey, the Boilermakers are 70th in offensive rebounding and 10th on defense.

Iowa vs Purdue Prediction

Iowa isn’t a bad team, but this is a bad matchup for the Hawkeyes. They don’t have the size to contain Edey on defense or generate second-chance opportunities on offense. They’re also unlikely to light it up from three like Northwestern did.

That said, Iowa already played a true road game against one of the best teams in the country with its own 7’1 center – Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner – and they played up to their competition. Iowa led for most of the first half and the game was knotted at 43-43 at the break.

Purdue has had a couple sluggish starts this year, trailing both Gonzaga and Tennessee at halftime of games it would go onto win. I will take Iowa to keep the game relatively close in the first 20 minutes.

Iowa vs Purdue pick: Iowa first half +7 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

• ATS: 7-7 (-0.63 units)
•  Player props: 1-0 (+0.87 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.