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Kent State vs Toledo Picks and Odds (Feb. 15)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Feb 15, 2022 · 2:55 AM PST

Toledo's Ryan Rollins driving pas a Michigan State defender
Toledo's Ryan Rollins, right, drives against Michigan State's Jaden Akins during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021, in East Lansing, Mich. Michigan State won 81-68. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
  • Toledo is an 8.5-point favorite over Kent State on Tuesday
  • Kent State has won six in a row and eight of nine
  • Read below for Kent State vs Toledo odds, analysis, and betting preview

Toledo (20-5, 12-2 Mid-American) is an 8.5-point home favorite over Kent State in a MAC game at 6:00 pm ET, Tuesday, on the CBS Sports Network. Toledo is 11-1 straight up and ATS in its last since road loss to the Golden Flashes on Jan. 1.

Kent State (15-9, 10-4 Mid-American) has won six in a row and is 5-0-1 ATS since a loss at Buffalo on Jan. 21. They have won their last three MAC road games, two as 2.5-point underdogs, including a 66-64 victory at Akron the last time out Friday.

Kent State vs Toledo Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Kent State Golden Flashes +310 +8.5 (-110) Over 144.5 (-110)
Toledo Rockets -400 -8.5 (-110) Under144.5 (-110)

Odds from BetMGM on Feb. 14.

 

Toledo is an 8.5-point favorite against Kent State with the total set at 144.5, on the low side for Toledo this season. Toledo is -450 on the moneyline, meaning the Rockets have a 80% implied win probability. The Golden Flashes are +340 on the moneyline, which translates into a 22.7% implied win probability.

Neither team is factored into the Final Four odds at this stage, but Toledo sits 68th at KenPom and 69th in the NET rankings. If they finish strong, they’ll have a case for an at-large bid even if they don’t get the MAC’s auto-bid.

Revisiting Game 1

Kent State leading scorer guard Sincere Carry had a game-high 19 points in the Golden Flashes’ 66-63 victory in the first meeting Jan. 1. His two free throws with 11 seconds remaining provided the finishing touches on a game long on competitiveness (three technical fouls) but short on efficiency.

Kent State shot 33 percent from the field and Toledo shot 34.6, and no starter on either team made more than half his shots. Carry was 5 for 21 but made seven of eight free throws. The Flashes had a 44-37 rebounding edge.

Toledo leading scorer 6’4 Ryan Rollins hit a 3-pointer to tie the game at 62 with 56 seconds left before Carry made four three throws in the final 31 seconds. Elijah Wilson’s potential game-tying 3-pointer at the buzzer rimmed out.

Toledo on a Roll

The Rockets have lost only one of their 12 games since falling to Kent State, that a 93-83 loss at Ball State, a game in which they might have been looking ahead to a rematch with top contender Ohio U four days later.

Sophomore Rollins is the key on a senior-less team that has started the same lineup in all 25 games. Rollins leads the Rockets in scoring (19.9) and rebounding (6.8) and has stepped it up in the last 10 games, averaging 21.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.5 assists while shooting 53.1 percent

Juniors JT Shumate (15.5 points, 6.2 rebounds), Setric Millner (14.2, 6.1) and RayJ Dennis (12.4, 5.9) are complementary pieces, and all five starters including freshman guard Ra’Heim Moss (8.4, 5.1) are averaging at least five rebounds.

Dennis had a career-high 22 points in a 100-72 victory over Northern Illinois the last time out, tying a career high with eight assists and adding eight rebounds. Rollins had 22 points and Shumate had 20.

There is a reason the Rockets are receiving votes in the AP Top 25. They are shooting 43.8 percent, 21st in Division I and are limiting opponents to 39.9 percent from the floor, 29th. Their plus-5.8 rebound margin is 36th.

Kent State vs Toledo Head-to-Head Results

Kent State is 4-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in the last six after its 66-63 home victory as a 1.5-point favorite on New Year’s Day.

Since the 2013-14 season, the Golden Flashes are 7-6 straight up and 10-3 ATS. They are 4-4 straight up and 7-1 ATS at Toledo since 2009-10. Kent State is 6-1 ATS in the last seven in the series as a road dog.

The game has gone under the total in three of the last four and seven of the last 10 in Savage Arena,

Betting Trends

Toledo and Kent State have been strong “go-with” teams this season, especially recently. Toledo is 18-6 ATS, and its cover percentage trails only Jacksonville (16-5) and Middle Tennessee (10-5-1).

The Rockets are 11-1 straight up and ATS in their 12 games since the Jan. 1 loss to Kent State. Included is a home-and-home sweep of Ohio, the Bobcats’ only two losses in MAC play.

Kent State is 6-0 straight up (5-0-1 ATS) in its last six and 8-1 straight up 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine.

The Golden Flashes have won and covered four of their last five MAC road games, concluding a sweep of Akron its last time out 66-64 Friday.

Kent State Flashing

Carry (17.6 points) had 19 points, Malique Jacobs (11.6 points, 7.4 rebounds) had a double-double and Giovanni Santiago had two late 3-pointers when the Golden Flashes held off favored 66-64 Akron last Friday.

The Flashes hit their stride after Santiago become the sixth man Jan.ย  14, when he returned after missing two games with a leg injury suffered when he stepped on the foot of Ball State coach James Whitford. Santiago has 54 points and seven threes in the last three games

Kent State vs Toledo Prediction

There is not much space between the two hottest teams in a Mid-American Conference, who continue to be overlooked in the NCAA Tournament odds. Revenge is the driving motive for Toledo, which is 4-0 against Akron and Buffalo. Kent State is 2-2 against them. The Rockets have won their last four by double-digits, and they prove a point here.

The pick: Toledo -8.5 (-110)

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