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Liberty vs Florida Atlantic Odds, Picks & Predictions (Nov. 30)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Dec 4, 2023 · 5:57 AM PST

Florida Atlantic Owls guard Alijah Martin high-fiving teammates
Nov 26, 2023; Kissimmee, FL, USA; Florida Atlantic Owls guard Alijah Martin (15) is subbed out of during the ESPN Events Invitational Championship game against the Virginia Tech Hokies in the second half at State Farm Field House. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
  • The undefeated Liberty Flames play their first true road game of the season against the #13 FAU Owls on Nov. 30
  • With a 5-0 ATS record, Liberty is one of just six DI teams that’s covered every game this season
  • See the Liberty vs FAU odds, predictions, and best bets for Wednesday’s game in Boca Raton

The #13 Florida Atlantic Owls (5-1, 1-1 home, 4-2 ATS) welcome a dangerous opponent to Boca Raton on Wednesday evening when the Liberty Flames (6-0, 0-0 away, 6-0 ATS) head to the Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena for a 6:00 pm ET tipoff.

The Flames are one of just six 362 Division I teams that remains perfect against the spread three weeks into the season. Returning the bulk of production from last year’s Final Four team, the Owls are sizable home favorites on Wednesday.

Liberty vs Florida Atlantic Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Liberty Flames +7.5 (-110) +270 O 143.5 (-110)
FAU Owls -7.5 (-110) -345 U 143.5 (-110)

FAU is currently a 7.5-point home favorite in Wednesday’s college basketball odds and -315 on the moneyline to win straight-up. The Flames come back at +250 to pull the road upset. The total of 143.5 is two points higher than any other total the slow-paced Flames have seen this season.

 

Odds as of Nov. 30 on the Caesars Sportsbook app. New bettors at the sportsbook can claim a Caesars promo code to bet on Liberty vs FAU.

FAU is currently a +4000 bet in the odds to win March Madness, which is among the top-25 favorites. Liberty is a +75000 longshot.

Liberty Coping with Loss of McGhee

Liberty finished last season 27-9 but a loss to Kennesaw State in the A-SUN title game kept them out of the NCAA Tournament. They went on to beat Villanova in the NIT and finished the year rated 48th at KenPom (eighth-highest of non-Tournament teams).

With leading scorer Darius McGhee (22.8 PPG, 3.0 APG) graduating, there was supposed to be a big drop-off for the Flames. After all, no other player averaged more than 10.9 points per game. But that hasn’t been the case so far. With returnees Kyle Rode (16.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.0 AGP) and Brady Peebles (14.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG) raising their games and Bowling Green transfer Kaden Metheny (12,3 PPG, 3.2 APG) making immediate contributions, the Flames have demolished their first six opponents (only five of which were DI teams). Liberty has won every game by double digits, including a semi-road game against the Charlotte 49ers (in Charlotte, NC).

 

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Liberty’s best win this year was an 83-66 rout of Wichita State (93rd at KenPom) on a neutral court in South Carolina.

Their status as 7.5-point underdogs is a novelty this season as the Flames have been at least two-point favorites in each game to date.

Florida Atlantic Bounces Back from Puzzling Loss to Bryant

When FAU lost its third game of the season to Bryant (then 276th at KenPom) 61-52 at home as 23.5-point chalk, many were left scratching their heads. The Owls were returning most of the significant contributors from last year’s team, which went all the way to the Final Four, and they had started this season with dominant wins over Loyola Chicago (75-62) and Eastern Michigan (100-57).

But the Owls are proving that loss to be the anomaly it appeared to be. They responded with three straight wins over top-75 teams, all on neutral courts: 91-86 over Butler (56th), 96-89 over Texas A&M (23rd), and 84-50 over Virginia Tech (69th).

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FAU’s three leading scorers from last year have picked up where they left off. Seven-footer Vladislav Golden has increased his scoring from 10.2 PPG to 14.7 PPG. Last year’s leader Johnell Davis is averaging the exact same at 13.8 PPG while grabbing a team-high 6.5 rebounds per game, while Alijah Martin has decreased slightly from to 13.1 to 12.5 PPG.

Liberty vs FAU Prediction

Liberty plays at an ultra-slow pace (301st in DI) while rating 27th in offensive efficiency and 65th on defense. In other words, the Flames limit the number of possessions in the game while making the most of their trips down the floor. It’s the best recipe an underdog can have for covering a fairly large spread in a hostile environment.

FAU certainly has the talent and experience to blow teams out, but they don’t really play a run-and-gun style that’s prone to big margins of victory. They place at the 161st-fastest tempo and shoot a fairly average number of threes (25.7 per game).

Going back to last year, of Liberty’s nine losses, six were by seven points or fewer, including a narrow 75-71 true road game at Wisconsin.

Liberty vs FAU pick: Liberty +7.5 (-110)

 

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

  • ATS: 7-6 (+0.37 units)
  •  Player props: 1-0 (+0.87 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise. 

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