Louisville Not Among Top-25 Favorites to Reach Final Four at 2021 NCAA Tournament

• Sportsbooks have opened odds to reach the 2021 Final Four in Indianapolis (April 3rd – 5th)
• Some perennial powers, including the Louisville Cardinals, are outside the top 25
• See the early March Madness futures and analysis

Assuming the 2021 NCAA Tournament takes place as scheduled from March 16th – April 5th, sportsbooks have posted early odds to reach the Final Four.

The early favorites are Gonzaga, Villanova, Baylor, and Virginia (in that order). But the biggest storylines coming out of the opening betting lines center on a few teams that find themselves a lot lower on the list than they are accustomed to.

2021 Final Four Odds

Odds as of May 9, 2020. 

Mack’s Cardinals Lose a Ton

When the 2019-20 season shut down, the Cardinals were ranked 13th in the Coaches Poll and 14th in the AP Poll. Advanced metrics liked them even more, with KenPom rating them the 9th-best team in the country.

Why the pessimism from oddsmakers on their 2021 prospects?

Louisville will have exactly two players returning who played meaningful roles last season: sophomore point guard David Johnson (16.0 MPG, 6.3 PPG, 2.8 AP) and senior center Malik Williams (18.7 MPG, 8. 5 PPG, 6. 1 RPG).

All five of the team’s leaders in minutes are gone (Jordan Nwora, Steven Enoch, Dwayne Sutton, Ryan McMahon, Fresh Kimble) and the first four of those players were also Louisville’s four leading scorers. Nwora had a tendency to disappear against elite competition, but he still averaged 18.0 PPG, which was almost twice as many as any other player. (Enoch was second at 9. 5 PPG.)

Louisville fans will be hoping Johnson, in particular, can make a big leap in his second season. He showed flashes of brilliance, especially against Duke (19 PTS, 7 AST in a 79-73 road win). Getting that level of point-guard play on a consistent basis would mean the world for a young team full of new parts.

Johnson will be joined by top-ranked JUCO transfer Jay Scrubb, who should provide immediate scoring at the two. But Mack, surprisingly, didn’t land a single player inside ESPN’s top-90 recruits for 2020. His top incoming freshman is D’Andre Davis (#96 at ESPN, #100 at 247Sports), followed by JJ Traynor (#115 at 247Sports).

Mack never had a roster replete with five-stars at Xavier and still reached the Sweet 16 in four of his nine seasons … [but he made] zero Final Fours.

Mack never had a roster replete with five-stars at Xavier and still reached the Sweet 16 in four of his nine seasons in Cincinnati. But he only reached one Elite Eight and zero Final Fours. There’s a limit to what a coach can do when he just doesn’t have the horses.

Dayton Will Be Without Toppin … and More

Dayton is the only other team that (a) finished last season ranked in the top ten at KenPom (4th) and (b) isn’t in the top-25 of the Final Four odds for 2021. The Flyers were 29-2 when the 2019-20 season was canceled and in line for their first-ever #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The biggest reason they are being dismissed as a Final Four contender is because AP and Naismith Player of the Year Obi Toppin is departing for the pros after a sophomore season for the ages. The 6’9 wing averaged 20.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and shot 63% from the floor, including 39% from three.

He also routinely made post defenders look like his little brother and threw down windmill dunks.

Anthony Grant utilized Toppin’s freak athleticism well and earned AP Coach of the Year honors for it. Grant will have his work cut out for him this season, though, as he loses more than just Obadiah the Great.

Also gone are third-leading scorer Trey Landers and fifth-leading scorer Ryan Mikesell, the only other forward who received meaningful minutes alongside Toppin.

Jalen Crutcher (15.1 PPG, 4.8 APG) is back, and he should be in the running for Preseason Player of the Year in the A10. Winning another A10 title is not the same as reaching the Final Four, however. There are no five-star recruits coming in to save the day.

It would take something resembling a miracle for Dayton to repeat as a top-ten team in 2021. Their +1050 odds carry an implied probability of around 9%, which is too high for a team losing the best player in the country along with two other key cogs.