- Florida is a 4.5-point favorite over Mississippi State on Wednesday
- Mississippi State has won 6 of 7, going 5-2 ATS
- Read below for analysis and a betting prediction
Florida (10-5, 1-3 SEC) is a 4.5-point favorite over Mississippi State in a Southeastern Conference game at 6:30 pm ET Wednesday on the SEC Network. The Gators broke a three-game losing streak with a 71-63 victory at South Carolina the last time out, covering as a 4.5-point favorite.
Mississippi State (12-4, 3-1, SEC) has lost only to arch-rival Ole Miss in the last five weeks, falling to the Rebels 82-72 in Oxford as a 2.5-point road favorite in their first true road game Jan. 8.
Mississippi State vs Florida Odds
|Mississippi State Bulldogs||+150||+4.5 (-110)||Over 139.5 (-110)|
|Florida Gators||-185||-4.5 (-110)||Under 139.5 (-110)|
Odds from BetMGM on Jan. 18.
Florida is a two-point home favorite against Mississippi State, with the total sitting at 139.5, among the lowest each has seen in its last five games. Florida’s moneyline price of -185 means that the Gators have a 64.9 percent implied win probability. The Bulldogs’ +150 moneyline number translates into a 40 percent implied win probability.
The Gators, who opened with respectable +5500 odds to win the 2022 National Championship, have faded all the way to +10250 in the March Madness championship odds. That number is still considerably shorter than the Bulldogs, who sit at +19000.
Not a single player from either team features in the current Wooden Award odds, either.
Florida regained some of the mojo it had lost during a three-game losing streak while shooting a season-high 55.1 percent from the field in a 71-63 victory at South Carolina the last time out. The Gators shot an even 40.0 percent from the floor, 27.6 from distance, in early SEC losses to ranked teams Alabama, Auburn and LSU.
— Florida Gators Men’s Basketball (@GatorsMBK) January 17, 2022
Coach Mike White juggled his lineup at South Carolina, giving 2021 five-star recruit freshman Kowacie Reeves his second start and senior Kansas City transfer point guard Brandon McKissic his first. Struggling point Tyree Appleby (35.6 field goal percentage, 2.6 turnovers per game) contributed six assists and two steals off the bench
Reeves and Charleston Southern grad transfer guard Phlandrous Fleming Jr. had 14 points against South Carolina, three days after Florida shot 36.4 percent and made 11 of 22 free throws in a 64-58 home loss to LSU.
Mobile senior forward 6’11 Colin Castleton, who leads the Gators in scoring (15.4) and rebounding (9.1), had a career-high eight blocked shots to to with 10 points and seven rebounds in Columbia.
Florida vs Mississippi State H2H Results
Mississippi State has won the last three games between the two — they play only once a year because they are in different SEC divisions — after breaking an eight-game series losing streak in a 71-68 home victory on Jan. 15. 2019. The teams are 5-5 ATS in the last 10.
Florida is 6-1 straight up and 4-3 ATS at home since 2010. The Bulldogs broke a six-game losing streak in Gainesville with a 78-71 victory as a six-point underdog in their most recent visit in 2020. The game has gone over the total in four of the last five games at Florida and seven of the last 10 at either place.
Bulldogs Coming On
Mississippi State spent the non-conference season beating the likes of Richmond, Furman and Winthrop, mid-majors hoping to burnish their NCAA tournament resume with a Power 6 win, but the Bulldogs did not have a signature win until stopping Arkansas and Alabama at home in SEC play.
The appropriately named Iverson Molinar, a 6’3 junior from Panama, is averaging team-highs with 17.9 points and 4.4 assists, and 6’10 senior Garrison Brooks (11.1 points, 6.9 rebounds) is another of the Bulldogs’ five double-digit scorers.
— College Insider Inc. (@collegeinsider) January 17, 2022
With its height and physicality, the Bulldogs have a plus-9.5 rebound margin, sixth in Division I. They average 12.1 offensive rebounds per game, a concern for Florida, which gave up 21 offensive rebounds to South Carolina.
Smith’s Status Will Impact the Total
Check the status of Mississippi State center 6’10 Tolu Smith. A force when he has been on the court, Smith has been in and out of the lineup since suffering a fractured toe against Richmond on Nov. 27. He has played six games.
Smith had 18 points, six rebounds and five steals in an 81-68 victory over Arkansas on Dec. 29. After sitting out the next two games, Smith returned to score six points against Alabama before fouling out. He is averaging 12.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.
The college basketball betting trends show that Mississippi State has not been an underdog all season while playing a relatively easy non-conference schedule, ranked No. 237 in Division I by KenPom.
Florida played a non-conference schedule that included Florida State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Maryland, a slate that is ranked the 19th-most difficult in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom.
Florida vs Mississippi State Prediction
We have not seen the Florida team that beat Florida State and Ohio State in the first three weeks of the season, but the Gators responded well at South Carolina after playing some of the best in the SEC recently.
Mississippi State has lost its only road game at Ole Miss and could be looking ahead to the rematch Saturday.
Florida -4.5 (-110)