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NC State vs Purdue Predictions, Player Props & Odds for the Final Four

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Basketball

Updated Apr 6, 2024 · 7:52 AM PDT

North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Ben Middlebrooks and center DJ Burns Jr gesture to the crowd
Mar 31, 2024; Dallas, TX, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack forward Ben Middlebrooks (34) and forward DJ Burns Jr. (30) react in the second half against the Duke Blue Devils in the finals of the South Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at American Airline Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
  • The #11 NC State Wolfpack face the #1 Purdue Boilermakers in the 2024 Final Four on Saturday
  • Purdue is 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while NC State is 3-1 with three moneyline upsets
  • See the NC State vs Purdue odds, predictions, and player props for April 6

A berth in the 2024 national championship game is on the line this evening when the #11 NC State Wolfpack (26-14, 20-19-1 ATS) face the #1 Purdue Boilermakers (33-4, 20-15-2 ATS) in the Final Four at State Farm Arena in Glendale, AZ.

NC State vs Purdue will be the first game of the night, tipping off at 6:09 pm ET/4:09 pm MT, followed by Alabama vs UConn at 8:49 pm ET.

For the fourth time in five March Madness games, the Wolfpack are moneyline underdogs.

NC State vs Purdue Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
NC State Wolfpack +9.5  (-120) +320 O 146.5 (-110)
Purdue Boilermakers -9.5 (-100) -420 U 146.5 (-110)

The Boilermakers are -420 to win and 9.5-point favorites against the spread, which is up one point from the opening odds last Sunday. NC State comes back as a +320 underdog to win straight-up in Saturday’s college basketball odds.


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The Wolfpack have the longest odds of the four remaining teams in the March Madness championship odds at +2043. Purdue (+220) is the second-favorite behind reigning champion UConn (-205).

Wolfpack Ride Nine-Game Win Streak into Final Four

NC State’s season was all but over heading into the 2024 ACC Tournament. The Wolfpack were the #10 seed in their conference tournament after a 17-14 regular season (9-11 ACC) and needed to win five games in five days to earn the ACC’s auto-bid, which is exactly what they did, with four wins coming as moneyline underdogs.

NC State’s run of upsets continued in the NCAA Tournament. In the first round, the Wolfpack demolished #6 Texas Tech (80-67) as 4.5-point underdogs. NC State also ran over #2 Marquette (67-58) in the Sweet 16 as 7.5-point underdogs and beat rival #4 Duke (76-64) as seven-point ‘dogs.

YouTube video

NC State’s only win as favorite in its last eight games was a 79-73 OT victory over #14 Oakland in the second round.

Three different players have led the Wolfpack in scoring during their four tournament games. Senior forward DJ Burns Jr (13.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.8 APG) is averaging a team-high 18.3 PPG, while senior guard DJ Horne (16.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.1 APG) has been almost bang-on his season average at 16.8 PPG.

Junior forward Mohammed Diarra (6.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has been a monster on the glass with 11.8 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament.

The Wolfpack have improved from 78th in the KenPom efficiency ratings pre-ACC Tournament to 43rd ahead of the Final Four. But that’s still 31 spots behind any of the other remaining teams.

Boilermakers Dominate Midwest Region

Purdue has made last year’s first-round upset at the hands of #16 Fairleigh Dickinson a distant memory. The Boilermakers have rolled through the first four rounds of the NCAA Tournament with four ATS victories.

After blowing out #16 Grambling State (78-50 as 27.5-point favorites) and #8 Utah State (106-67 as 11.5-point chalk), Purdue notched its second win of the season over #5 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 (80-68 as 4.5-point favorites) before gutting out a 72-66 win over #2 Tennessee in the Elite Eight as three-point favorites.

YouTube video

Two-time Wooden Award-winner Zach Edey (25.0 PPG, 12.2 RPG) has led the team in both scoring and rebounding in all four game so far, averaging 30 points and 16.3 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament. The 7’4 senior had a career-high 40 points in the narrow win over the Volunteers, going 13-of-21 from the floor and 14-of-22 from the free-throw line.

Purdue needed a massive game from their leader against Tennessee while their guards were uncharacteristically poor from three. The Boilermakers, who are second in the nation at 40.6% from three, went just 3-of-15 from beyond the arc against the Volunteers.

NC ST vs PUR Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Braden Smith (PUR) 11.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) 5.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140) 1.5 (Ov +115| Un -155)
Casey Morsell (NCST) 10.5 (Ov -110 | Un -100) 2.5 (Ov -115| Un -125) OFF 0.5 (Ov -210 | Un +155)
DJ Burns Jr (NCST) 14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 2.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140) OFF
DJ Horne (NCST) 16.5 (Ov -130 | Un -115) 3.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150) 2.5 (Ov +140 | Un -180)
Fletcher Loyer (PUR) 10.5 (Ov -120 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) 2.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175) 1.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125)
Lance Jones (PUR) 11.5 (Ov -120 | Un -130) 2.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) OFF 1.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125)
Mason Gillis (PUR) 6.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) OFF 1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130)
Michael O’Connell (NCST) 7.5 (Ov -100 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120) 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 0.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140)
Mohammed Diarra (NCST) 8.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 10.5 (Ov +105 | Un -145) OFF 0.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100)
Zach Edey (PUR) 26.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 13.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) OFF OFF

The college basketball player props for NC State vs Purdue from DraftKings on April 6. 

Edey has a game-high point total of 26.5 and rebound total of 13.5, while Horne leads the Wolfpack players in points (16.5 O/U) and Diarra in rebounds (10.5 O/U).

NC State vs Purdue Prediction

Between Diarra and Burns, the Wolfpack are one of the few teams in the nation that have the size to give Zach Edey problems, or at least make him break a sweat, in the post. NC State held 7’1 Duke center Kyle Filipowski to just 11 points on 3-of-12 shooting from the field. Marquette’s frontcourt pair of Oso Ighodaro and David Joplin combined for just 10 points on 4-of-16 shooting in the Sweet 16.

I actually see this game coming down to Purdue’s guard play. If Loyer and Jones are hot from three, the Boilermakers are apt to run away with a double-digit victory. But if they’re a little off again, like they were against Tennessee, the Wolfpack will keep it close.

On the biggest state, under the brightest lights, I don’t expect a lights-out performance from three (from either team), and that’s going to be a bigger problem for Purdue when it comes to covering a 9.5-point spread.

NC State vs Purdue picks: 

  • NC State +9.5 (-120)
  • Edey under 26.5 points (-105)
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