Obi Toppin Now a +120 Naismith Player of the Year Favorite, But Still +300 to Win AP POY

• Obi Toppin has led No. 3 Dayton to its first Atlantic 10 conference title in a decade
• Toppin is averaging 19.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game
• The sophomore is favored to win all the Player of the Year awards, but bettors can get a much better price at a certain sportsbook

March, the most magical month of the college basketball calendar, is here. Conference tournaments are roughly a week away, followed by the highly anticipated 68-team March Madness tournament.

Stars will emerge in the postseason, but some stars are also worth talking about right now, especially as they relate to the 2020 Naismith Player of the Year odds and the odds for the Associated Press Player of the Year.

Dayton’s Obi Toppin leads the sway in the latest POY futures, but he’s considerably shorter in the Naismith futures and considerably longer in the AP POY futures.

Odds taken March 2, 2020.

Difference Between Naismith and AP POY?

Somehow, there are six Player of the Year awards handed out each year (in 2019, Zion Williamson won all of them). The two most-notable ones are the Naismith and the AP POY awards.

What makes them different? It’s really just about who is voting on them. The AP award, predictably, is voted on by members of the Associated Press (since 1961). The Naismith award is given out by the Atlanta Tipoff Club (since 1969).

Zion Williamson is just the third freshman to ever win Naismith Player of the Year. pic.twitter.com/H1a1ZL71kH

— SLAM (@SLAMonline) April 7, 2019

Since 2003-04, both awards have been given to the same recipient all but once (in 2015-16, Buddy Hield won the Naismith award and Denzel Valentine won the AP award).

What Makes Obi Toppin So Good?

Toppin’s box-score numbers (19.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists per game) aren’t the most impressive of this group (Garza, for example, is averaging more points and rebounds).

But Toppin has been the most efficient, ranking sixth in the nation in effective field-goal percentage (67.5 percent). He also shoots fairly well from three-point range for a big man (6’9), with a 38.8-percent clip this season.

Alrighty then. Well, that’s that for the Naismith Award then. Obi Toppin, ladies and gentlemen https://t.co/vbnvvIRDFE

— Nick Clarkson (@RealSilverTuna_) February 22, 2020

Oh, and Dayton hasn’t lost since Dec. 21, which certainly helps his case.

What Does KenPom Say?

KenPom.com does its own player of the year rankings, in which the site compiles all its advanced stats to determine the best player in the country.

Right now, Toppin is fifth on that list. Ahead of him, from fourth to first, are Malachi Flynn, Markus Howard, Luka Garza, and Devon Dotson (all listed in the odds table above).

Luka Garza scored 20+ points for the 14th straight game with 25 against Penn State

That's a school record for Big Ten games and two games away from Fred Brown's overall school record pic.twitter.com/E7hdGCPr3r

— On Iowa Sports (@GazetteOnIowa) February 29, 2020

This might sound concerning for Toppin bettors, but consider this — eight of KenPom’s past nine players of the year did not win either the Naismith or the AP award.

Who Is the Best Bet?

The most important thing to keep in mind is that whoever wins one of these awards is almost certainly going to win the other one. History has made that quite clear.

Still, the choice — primarily between Toppin and Garza — isn’t so cut and dry. Garza’s numbers are better (he even has an NCAA-best 18 “Game MVPs,” as awarded by KenPom; Toppin has 13), but Iowa has been less impressive than Dayton.

Iowa's Luka Garza has his 9th straight 20-point game against AP Top-25 competition.

According to @EliasSports that is the longest streak by any player in the last 15 seasons. pic.twitter.com/EmIaxoQRC4

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) February 26, 2020

It will almost certainly be one or the other and we’ll have at most a month to see them play it out. While Toppin is more likely to win, the odds are skewed too heavily in his favor. The race is closer than the odds make it out to be. Personally, I’ll take the value with Garza.

Pick: Garza to win AP POY (+600)