South Dakota State vs Alabama Picks, Odds and Predictions (Nov. 12)

• No. 14 Alabama is a 12.5-point home favorite over South Dakota State at 8:00 pm ET Friday on SEC+
• Alabama is the SEC preseason second-favorite (+450) behind Kentucky
• South Dakota State is the  Summit League favorite … again

No. 14 Alabama (1-0) is a 12.5-point favorite against Summit League preseason favorite South Dakota State at 8 pm ET, Friday, on SEC+. The Crimson Tide won the only previous meeting 70-67 in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 9, 2012, as part of the 2K Sports Classic.

South Dakota State (1-0) has won or shared the Summit League regular-season title in each of the last four years. The Jackrabbits won the regular-season title outright in 2021 but fell to NCAA tournament giant-killer Oral Roberts in the semifinals game of the league tourney.

South Dakota State vs Alabama Odds

Odds as of Nov. 11 at FanDuel,

The teams are on opposite sides of the roster experience spectrum this season. Alabama lost four of the quintet that started the vast majority of the games last season, when the Crimson Tide went 26-7 and won the SEC regular-season and tournament titles in coach Nate Oats’ second season.

South Dakota State returns all five starters and its six leading scorers from the team what went 16-7 a year ago.

Tryin’ One

Alabama’s m.o. in the Nate Oats regime is pretty easy to figure. The Crimson Tide are fully invested in the analytics-driven theory that three-point shooting is the path to success.

The Tide made 13 of 33 three-point attempts (39.4 percent) in their season-opening 93-64 home victory over Louisiana Tech on Tuesday, when 6’3 guard Jaden Shackelford was 4 of 10 from distance and 6’6 wing Keon Ellis was 3 of 4. Shackelford had 17 points and Ellis had 18.

https://youtu.be/NxxcwKkO9TM

The Tide led NCAA Division 1 in three-point attempts (989) and makes (348) en route to a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament in 2020-21, and they advanced to the Sweet 16 before being eliminated by upstart UCLA in an 88-78 overtime loss.

Tide Reloading

SEC Player of the Year Herb Jones is one of four starters who has moved onto to the NBA or elsewhere from a group that was third in Division I in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency last season, and Jones’ talent and effort were a big factor.  Key contributors Shackelford, Ellis and point guard Jahvon Quinerly are back.

Ellis moved into the starting lineup in the SEC tournament a year ago and Quinerly was the primary ball-handler while averaging 12.9 points and 3;2 assists off the bench.  Quinerly finished the 2020-21 season with 15 straight double-figure scoring games.

Highly routed freshman point guard J.D. Davison, a McDonald’s All-American last season, had 12 points, six assists and six minutes in 26 minutes against Louisiana Tech, and 6’6 sophomore Jason Gary had 12 points and 10 rebounds.

Four players, led by Shackelford’s 14 points per game. averaged in double figures a year ago, and five scored in double figures against Louisiana Tech.

Jackrabbits Still Running

The Jackrabbits lost career leading scorer Mike Daum two years ago but won the 2020-21 Summit League regular season title last year, anyway, and they return the top six scorers from a balanced, efficient offense.

Six’7 senior forward Doug Wilson, the 2020 Summit League player of the year, had 20 points and 10 rebounds in an 81-65 home victory over Bradley on Tuesday. Baylor Scheierman also had a double-double with 10 points and 14 rebounds in a game that South Dakota State led by 21 at half.

Wilson averaged 17.9 points a game on 58 percent shooting a year ago and 6’6 Scheierman averaged 15.2 points and 9.2 rebounds. Guard Noah Freidel had 16 points and three threes off bench against Bradley in his return. Freidel averaged 16.0 points and had 38 threes in 14 games last season before leaving the team in February to deal with his mental well-being.

By the Numbers

The total in the Alabama game has gone over in four of its last five, including the 2021 SEC championship game and two of its three NCAA tournament games. The Alabama-Louisiana Tech game went over the total by 3.5 points.

Sports Illustrated's Summit League Men's basketball rankings

114: South Dakota State
125: Oral Roberts
164: North Dakota State
223: South Dakota
243: Kansas City
274: St. Thomas (!!!)
314: North Dakota
327: Western Illinois
334: Omaha
345: Denverhttps://t.co/ksAyz4PgnO

— MPLS. MIKE (@_MplsMike_) November 2, 2021

South Dakota State has been over the total in four of its last six, although it went under the 149 number in the season opener. The Jackrabbits made 28 of 29 free throw attempts against Bradley.

The pick: South Dakota State +12.5 (-120)