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TCU vs Utah State Odds, Prediction & Picks (March 22)

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Basketball

Updated Mar 22, 2024 · 7:23 PM PDT

Feb 24, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs forward Emanuel Miller (2) celebrates with teammates during the first half against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
  • No. 8 Utah State battles No. 9 TCU on Friday night in March Madness
  • The March Madness odds favor the Horned Frogs by four points
  • Read below for Utah State vs TCU odds, prediction, and picks

The Midwest Region of the 2024 March Madness Playoff bracket features a first-round showdown between the No. 8 Utah State Aggies (27-6) and the No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs (21-12) on Friday night. Tipoff is set for 9:55 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, with TBS carrying the broadcast.

The latest March Madness odds favor the Horned Frogs by four points over the Aggies, with the over/under offered at 150.5 points. We’ve made our TCU us USU prediction to help you place an educated wager tonight.

Let’s further analyze the TCU vs Utah State odds, as we make our prediction for this anticipated March Madness clash.

TCU vs Utah State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
No. 9 TCU -4 (-112) -185 Over 150.5 (-110)
No. 8 Utah State +4 (-108) +154 Under 150.5 (-110)

In the TCU vs Utah State odds for Friday March Madness, the Horned Frogs are -185 moneyline favorites over the Aggies. Based on the odds, TCU’s implied win probability is 65%.

Utah State will be making its 24th NCAA Tournament appearance, while TCU is playing in its 11th tournament all-time, including its third straight for the first time in program history.

 

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TCU vs Utah State Team Stats

TCU Horned Frogs
VS
Utah State Aggies
35 KenPom Ranking 48
114.9 (45) KP Adj Off Efficiency 115.8 (37)
98 (32) KP Adj Def Efficiency 100.5 (67)
69.8 (63) KP Adj Tempo 68.6 (107)
+9.59 (53) KP Strength of Schedule +6.39 (89)
-8.25 (357) KP Non-Conference SOS +2.14 (134)
35.57% (97) 3P% 33.07% (235)
72.96% (131) FT% 71.54% (205)
79.24 (52) PPG 79.79 (45)
71.24 (155) Opp PPG 70.27 (125)
46.49% (73) Field Goal % 49.32% (7)
37.03 (92) Total Rebounds 36.30 (127)

Horned Frogs Betting Analysis

TCU enters Friday night’s showdown following a tough 60-45 loss to Houston in the Big 12 quarterfinal. The Horned Frogs have won a game in each of the past two tournaments before being eliminated in the second round.

TCU is led by forward Emanuel Miller and guards Jameer Nelson Jr. and Micah Peavy. Miller is averaging 15.9 points and 5.9 rebounds a game, while Nelson (11.3) and Peavy (11.1) are the other two players in double digits for the Horned Frogs.

The Horned Frogs pride themselves on their defensive play, as the team is averaging 79.24 points per game, which is just outside the top-50 nationally. Defense is a bit of a different story, however, as the team is allowing 71.24 points per contest, which is 155th in the country.

TCU has been a solid bet against the spread this season, covering the number in 19 of their 33 games. They went 14-10 ATS as a betting favorite, with the “over” hitting in 18 of their contests.

Utah State Betting Analysis

Under the guidance of head coach Danny Sprinkle, Utah State (27-6) won the regular-season Mountain West title before losing to San Diego State in the conference tournament last week in Las Vegas. Sprinkle, a national coach of the year finalist, is rumored to be a candidate for the coaching vacancy at Washington.

Sprinkle led Utah State to its first Mountain West regular-season crown in its 11 seasons in the conference. Despite an impressive regular season in which the team was ranked 20th heading into the NCAA Tournament, Utah State received just a No. 8 seed in the Midwest bracket.

Utah State is led by wing Great Osobor, who averages 18.0 points and 9.2 rebounds a game. Ian Martinez leads the backcourt, scoring 13.1 points, while Darius Brown II averages 12.4 points. Mason Falslev is the fourth scorer in double figures, scoring 11.4 points.

Utah State wasn’t quite profitable against the spread this season, posting a 14-15-2 ATS margin. They only secured one upset victory in six games as an underdog, covering the spread on just one occasion as well. The “over” cashed in 19 of their 31 games.

TCU vs Utah State Prediction

While TCU clearly plays in the tougher conference, we like this matchup for the Aggies. Both these teams are rated similarly in offensive efficiency, and the discrepancy in defensive rank (31 vs 87) isn’t as lopsided as it might appear.

When you really dive into the advanced metrics, the Aggies have some nice edges. They rank 11th nationally in interior scoring, and Utah State is 203rd in defending that area. Conversely, the Horned Frogs have an excellent three-point percentage, but Utah State is third in the country in defending the perimeter.

The Horned Frogs were only 9-8 in games away from their home court and 7-7 in games decided by eight points or less. With Jamie Dixon’s club also going 4-7 against ranked teams this season, we think this game will be closer than the odds indicate.

TCU vs USU Pick:Β 

  • Utah State +4 (-110)

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