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Towson vs UNC Wilmington Picks and Odds (Feb. 17)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Feb 17, 2022 · 2:30 AM PST

UNC Wilmington's Mike Okauru driving past a defender
UNC Wilmington's Mike Okauru (4) drives on Pittsburgh's Jamarius Burton during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Tuesday, Nov. 16, 2021, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
  • Towson is 3.5-point favorite at UNC Wilmington on Thursday
  • UNC Wilmington is 15-2 straight up, 14-2 ATS since Dec. 15
  • Read below for Towson vs UNC Wilmington odds, analysis and, prediction

UNC Wilmington (17-8, 12-2 Colonial) is a 3.5-point home underdog against Towson in a Colonial Athletic Association game at 6 pm ET Thursday on the CBS Sports Network. The Seahawks won and covered the first meeting at Towson 81-77 on Jan. 22.

Towson (19-7, 10-3 Colonial) has won 10 of its last 12 to climb into second place in the Colonial. The Tigers have 3 1/2 games left. including the conclusion of a Jan. 27 home game against Delaware that was suspended because of unsafe playing conditions with Delaware leading 38-29 with 18:42 remaining.

Towson vs UNC Wilmington Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Towson Tigers -160 -3.5 (-110) Over 135.5 (-110)
UNC Wilmington Seahawks +135 +3.5 (-110) Under 135.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel on Feb.16.

 

Towson is a 3.5-point road favorite over UNC Wilmington with the total set at 135.5. Towson is -160 on the moneyline, which means the Tigers have a 61.5% implied win probability. The Seahawks are +135 on the moneyline, meaning they have a 42.6% implied win probability.

As the projected Colonial Conference champion, Towson is slotted in as a #13 seed in the latest March Madness bracket projection. The Tigers still haven’t enough attention from oddsmakers to be listed in the Final Four odds, though.

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise

So much for the CAA’s preseason poll. UNC Wilmington and Towson are 1-2 in the league after receiving no respect early from the league coaches and media.

Towson was picked to finish eighth in the 10-team league, UNC Wilmington was picked to finish ninth, and neither was among the six teams that received a first place vote. Probably because Towson was 4-14 and UNC Wilmington was 7-10 in Covid-interrupted 2020-21.

Seahawks’ senior guard 6’2 Mike Okauru and junior guard 6’6 Jaylen Sims were named to the preseason all-league team, but they were the only players from either team mentioned.

Sims (14.2 points, 5.5 rebounds), Okauru (12.8, 4.0) and Towson junior guards 6’4 Cameron Holden (13.9, 7.9) and 6’5 Nicolas Timberlake (13.7, 4.6) are among the CAA’s top 12 scorers. Holden is third in rebounding and teammate 6’7 Charles Thompson (6.2) is ninth.

Top Mid-Majors Collide

Towson and UNC Wilmington may have slid under the national radar, but they cannot hide from their peers.

Towson is ranked No. 20 and UNC Wilmington No. 23 in the current Mid-Major Top 25, compiled by collegeinsider.com in a weekly vote of Division I mid-major coaches.

The Colonial is one of five conferences with two teams in the rankings. The West Coast Conference has five — Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Francisco, BYU and Santa Clara.

Towson is 80th in the NCAA Net rankings, the highest among CAA teams. UNC Wilmington is 187th. Each has one Quad 1 victory.

A Look at the First Meeting

Wilmington got unexpected contributions from guard Shykeim Phillips (18 points) and reserves Jaylen Fornes (13) and Jamahri Harvey (12 points, season-high four rebounds) while snapping the Tigers’ five-game winning streak in the first game.

YouTube video

The Seahawks, who do not have a starter over 6’6, had a 42-40 rebounding edge while spending most of the game in a four-guard look even as 6’2 Okauru was held to nine points in 20 minutes because of foul trouble. Sims had 15 points and seven rebounds.

Holden had 18 points and seven rebounds for the Tigers, who also play a smaller group, with Thompson the tallest rotation member. Holden leads five Tigers scoring in double figures.

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Towson vs UNC Wilmington H2H Results

Towson is 5-1 straight up and ATS in the last six, the Seahawks’ victory this season breaking the Tigers’ five-game win and cover streak.

The Tigers have won and covered the last two in Wilmington after losing the previous five, going 3-2 ATS in those.

Betting Trends

UNC Wilmington has been a must-go-with since turning things around in mid-December. The Seahawks are 15-2 overall and 14-2 ATS since an 85-55 victory over Division II Mount Olive on Dec. 15. They are 15-8 overall ATS and were an 8.5-point underdog in the first game against Towson.

Towson is right there with them. The Tigers have won 10 of their last 12 are 17-8-1 ATS on the season, although they are 3-4 ATS in the last seven.

UNC Wilmington is 12-2 ATS in CAA games and is 8-2 ATS at home, 5-2 as a home favorite. Towson is 9-2 ATS on the road, 5-0 as a road underdog. The Tigers have eight true road wins, tied for sixth in Division I.

Towson, UNC Wilmington Do It With D

Towson leads the CAA in fewest points permitted per game at 64.2 points per game and Wilmington is second at 68.8.

The Tigers have held opponents to 41.1 percent shooting from the field, which ranks 71st in Division I, and 32.5 percent from three-point range. Their plus-8.3 scoring margin leads the CAA.

Towson has a plus-5.8 rebound margin, UNC Wilmington is at minus-3.0.

Towson vs UNC Wilmington Prediction

Revenge is a great motivator, and the best thing about this line is, the Tigers can still avenge the loss in the first meeting with a game that should be close enough that the points matter. At this point, it is impossible to play against overachieving UNC Wilmington and its remarkable ATS run.

The pick: UNC Wilmington +3.5 (-110) 

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