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UConn vs San Diego State Odds, Predictions & Injury Report for National Championship

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in College Basketball

Updated Apr 3, 2023 · 8:03 AM PDT

Connecticut Huskies celebrate win
Apr 1, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; Connecticut Huskies forward Adama Sanogo (21) and Connecticut Huskies center Donovan Clingan (32) hug in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament against the Miami Hurricanes at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Connecticut Huskies are 7-point favorites over the San Diego State Aztecs in the NCAA basketball national championship game on Monday, April 3
  • Connecticut has won all five of its NCAA Tournament games by at least 13 points
  • Below, see the UConn vs San Diego State odds, picks, injury news, and betting trends for Monday’s title game

If past results were a determining factor, then the March Madness national championship game would be a slam dunk for the Connecticut Huskies (30-8, 26-11-1 ATS) over the San Diego State Aztecs (32-6, 19-16-2 ATS).

Connecticut is a four-time NCAA champion, tying the Huskies with Kansas for the sixth-most titles won. This is their fifth visit to the Final Four and fourth appearance in the title game since 2004.

On the other hand, this is all new for the Aztecs. They’d never advanced beyond the Elite Eight prior to this season.

Oddsmakers are certainly leaning toward the Huskies to be solid victors in this game. Connecticut is set as 7-point favorites. The Huskies are 5-0 against the spread in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Aztecs vs Huskies Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
San Diego State +7 (-110) +275 O 132.5 (-110)
UConn -7 (-110) -350 U 132.5 (-110)

UConn beat San Diego State 74-67 in the Sweet 16 en route to the school’s 2011 NCAA Tournament title. The 7-point spread is the largest on a March Madness final since 2009. North Carolina beat Michigan State 89-72 that year, covering as the 7.5-point chalk. That game was also played inside an indoor NFL stadium at Detroit’s Ford Field.

Tip-off for this game is set for 9:20pm ET on Monday, April 3 at NRG Stadium. The game is being carried by CBS in the USA and TSN in Canada.



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Aztecs vs Huskies Betting Trends

The #4  seed in the West Region, Connecticut was the betting favorite in the March Madness odds entering the Elite Eight and people are seeing no reason not to sled with the Huskies all the way. In the March Madness betting trends, Connecticut is drawing 79% of handle and 73% of bets in the spread splits. Moneyline splits, though, are less supportive. The Huskies are garnering 56% of handle and 58% of bets.

There’s a difference of opinion regarding the total of 132.5 points. While 55% of handle is backing the over, 80% of bets are going with the under. Three of Connecticut’s last four games have gone under. San Diego State’s 72-71 semifinal win over FAU marked the first time in 13 games that an Aztecs game has gone over.

San Diego State vs Connecticut Injury Report

Connecticut starting guard Jordan Hawkins (food poisoning) is listed as probable. However, he was given the same injury designation for the semifinal against Miami. Hawkins not only started that game, he finished up scoring 13 points.

San Diego State is reporting no injuries.

UConn a Dominant Force

Connecticut isn’t just winning NCAA Tournament games, the Huskies are absolutely steamrolling over the opposition. They’ve won all five games so far by no less than 13 points.

The Huskies beat Gonzaga by 28, Arkansas by 23 and Iona by 24. Connecticut’s average margin of victory during March Madness is 20.6 points per game.

Hawkins has hit 19 3-pointers during the NCAA Tournament. Center Adama Sanogo delivered a double-double in the semifinals with 21 points and 10 rebounds.

Aztecs Are Cardiac Kids

San Diego State is arriving at the title game off back-to-back buzzer-beating victories. In their 72-71 semifinal win over FAU, Lamont Butler’s buzzer beater made San Diego State the first school in Final Four history to win on a buzzer beater while trailing in the game.

Along with seeking the school’s first NCAA Title, the Aztecs are also trying to bring the Mountain West Conference its first March Madness crown.

Balanced scoring is helping the Aztecs along the way. They’ve had four different top scorers in five NCAA tourney games.

San Diego State vs UConn Prediction

Since the NCAA Tournament went to its 64-team format in 1985, teams favored by 7+ points are 5-4 straight up and 3-6 ATS. However, on the last four occasions in that scenario, favorites are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Connecticut is simply a team with too many weapons. The Huskies are scoring 78.6 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. San Diego State will seek to utilize its defensive prowess to keep the score close, but it’s unlikely that the Aztecs can score enough to overcome the Huskies. UConn held Miami to a season-low 59 points in the semifinals.

Pick: UConn Huskies -7 (-110)


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