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Undefeated Baylor Opens as 1.5-Point Favorite at TCU in Week 11

Baylor vs TCU
The undefeated Baylor Bears face the TCU Horned Frogs in Week 11. Photo from @BUFootball. (Twitter.)
  • 8-0 Baylor clashes with 4-4 TCU on Saturday (3:30 PM ET, Nov. 9)
  • Baylor opened as 1.5-point favorites, with heavier juice on their side
  • The Bears have lost four straight versus the Horned Frogs

The undefeated Baylor Bears (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) continue their march towards a perfect season Saturday (Nov. 9) when they face the rival TCU Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3 Big 12).

Baylor is the lone undefeated team in the Big 12 and one of only eight perfect FBS teams remaining. They squeaked out a 17-14 victory over West Virginia in Week 10 and are 1.5-point favourites on the road versus TCU in our NCAAF Week 11 odds.

#11 Baylor vs TCU Odds

Team Spread
Baylor Bears -1.5 (-115)
TCU Horned Frogs +1.5 (-105)

*Odds taken Nov. 3

Despite their perfect record, Baylor is still considered a long shot to win it all this season. Their 2020 CFP National Championship odds currently sit at +6600, well behind one-loss teams like Georgia, Oregon and even Utah.

Winning Ugly

The Bears Week 10 performance was one of their worst of the season from an offensive standpoint, but defensively they were lights out. They held the Mountaineers to 217 yards on offense, and just 14 yards on the ground on 26 carries. It was their first win when scoring less than 20 points since 2006, and the fifth time this season they’ve held an opponent under 18 points.


Baylor may have overlooked West Virginia last week, but that won’t be the case versus TCU. The Bears have lost four straight to their conference rival and need to continue winning to stay ahead of #9 Oklahoma in the Big 12 standings. They’re incredibly balanced on offence and will need that versatility versus the Horned Frogs. TCU leads the Big 12 in total yards allowed, despite what happened to them last time out versus Oklahoma State.

Looking to Play Spoiler

The Horned Frogs are fresh off a disappointing road loss to the Cowboys. TCU’s normally stout run defence was gashed for 301 yards, including 223 by Chuba Hubbard. It was the first time in 19 seasons that the Horned Frogs have allowed an enemy running back to exceed 200 yards rushing, and it led to their third loss in four games.


With a conference championship well out of reach, TCU will be looking to spoil Baylor’s magical season. They’ve already knocked off #15 Texas at home earlier this season, and they came within a field goal of doing the same to #23 SMU.

Where Will the Line Go?

It’s hard to believe that just two seasons after winning only one game, the Bears are in position to possibly go undefeated. Dates with the Longhorns and Sooners still loom, but in this matchup they are a very deserving favorite.


They rate out higher than the Horned Frogs in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they have performed better against the spread. They’ve covered their last two games on the road and laying 1.5 points to an inferior team doesn’t seem like enough.

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