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Caleb Williams Becomes Heavy -3000 Favorite in Heisman Odds After Notre Dame Win

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Nov 27, 2022 · 5:00 AM PST

USC quarterback Caleb Williams celebrates after rushing for a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Nov 26, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) celebrates after rushing for a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
  • USC quarterback Caleb Williams accounted for four touchdowns in a win over Notre Dame
  • Williams became a heavy -3000 favorite in the Heisman odds after his performance
  • Can any player challenge Caleb Williams for the 2022 Heisman Trophy?

According to oddsmakers, USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams locked up the Heisman trophy with his performance in Week 13 vs Notre Dame. The updated Heisman odds give Williams 96.7% implied probability to win the college football MVP trophy.

Hours after Ohio State Buckeyes’ quarterback CJ Stroud saw his Heisman chances crumble in an upset loss to Michigan, Williams put the Trojans on his back to lead them to victory against the Fighting Irish.

Let’s take a look at the updated Heisman odds and analyze whether anyone can give Williams a run for his money.

Heisman Odds

Player Odds
Caleb Williams (QB, USC) -3000
Max Duggan (QB, TCU) +3000
CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State) +4000
Stetson Bennett (QB, Georgia) +10000
Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Washington) +10000
Bryce Young (QB, Alabama) +20000

Odds as of Nov. 26 at DraftKings. Use the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to make your Heisman wagers.

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The Heisman voting will take place after Conference Championship weekend but before the College Football Playoff, meaning contenders have one final game to impress the media.

The four Heisman finalists will officially be announced on December 5th, and the trophy will be presented on December 10th live in New York.

Caleb Williams Heisman Odds

USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams is now a massive -3000 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy following his performance against Notre Dame in Week 13. The ex-Ou pivot accounted for four touchdowns in a 38-27 win over the Irish.

Williams entered the day with -130 odds to win the Heisman, but those odds got drastically shorter once Stroud lost to Michigan. Then, after Williams went beast mode against Notre Dame in primetime, those odds continued to skyrocket until settling at -3000.

Williams hit the Heisman pose at one point during the night Saturday, as even he knew he had locked up the trophy. The junior pivot was serenaded with “Heisman! Heisman!” chants from the fans at LA Memorial Coliseum.

Both Stroud and Williams had a chance for a legacy game in front of a massive national audience on Saturday, and it couldn’t be more clear which player came out on top.

Stroud played okay in an ugly loss to Michigan, but he didn’t do anything special, causing his odds to plummet. Williams, though, had a couple of “Heisman moments” as he sliced and diced his way through the ND defense.

Williams’s passing stats are top-five in the country, but it’s his dual-threat ability and 10 rushing touchdowns that will put him over the top. The transfer QB’s electric play has the Trojans on the verge of a CFP berth one year after they went 4-8 overall.

Who Can Challenge Williams for Heisman?

Oddsmakers realistically don’t believe any player can take the Heisman trophy away from Williams with one weekend left before voting. This is similar to last season when Alabama’s Bryce Young became a massive -3500 favorite to win the Heisman following the SEC Championship game.

The player who oddsmakers believe has the best chance of stealing the Heisman away from Williams is TCU quarterback Max Duggan. Out of the players with Heisman odds available, Duggan and UGA’s Stetson Bennett are the only two who remain undefeated.

Duggan has the second-best odds for the Heisman, but his +3000 price means he only has 3.23% implied probability to win the award. Comparing Duggan’s stats to Williams, it’s easy to understand why the odds are priced how they are.

Caleb Williams vs Max Duggan Stats

Caleb Williams
VS
Max Duggan
11-1 Record 12-0
3,712 Passing Yards 3,070
34 Passing Touchdowns 29
3 Interceptions 3
65.8% Completion Percentage 66.6%
168.5 Passer Rating 171.1
351 Rushing Yards 294
10 Rushing Touchdowns 5

In order for Duggan to take votes away from Williams, he’ll need the have the game of the year in the Big 12 Championship against Kansas State, plus have Williams choke in the Pac-12 Championship against Utah.

Williams went off for five touchdowns in USC’s first meeting with the Utes in October, so it’s hard to project him dropping off drastically. It’s more likely we see another shootout between the two teams, where Williams will pad his stats even more.

The best value entering the weekend was on Michigan’s sensational running back Blake Corum, but his odds have been taken off the board entirely after a knee injury limited him to just two carries vs Ohio State.

Corum had a chance for a Heisman moment in “the Game”, but instead, Michigan dominated Ohio State without him, weakening Corum’s MVP case. Michigan may be able to beat Ohio State without Corum, but USC is going nowhere without Williams.

The value on Williams was early in the season before USC got to the tough part of their schedule. The Heisman betting splits show that Williams was the consensus top public pick for the Heisman this year, so there are plenty of bettors sitting on Williams’ Heisman tickets who couldn’t be happier with Saturday’s results.

 

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