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Cincinnati vs UCF Odds, Spread and Picks

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Oct 27, 2022 · 11:30 AM PDT

Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Ben Bryant throws downfield
Oct 22, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Ben Bryant (6) throws downfield during the first half against the Southern Methodist Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
  • UCF is a 1.5-point home favorite over Cincinnati on Saturday, October. 29
  • No. 20 Cincinnati has won six in a row after losing at Arkansas in the opener
  • Read below for Cincinnati vs UCF odds, spread and betting prediction

UCF (5-2, 2-1 AAC) is a 1.5-point favorite over Cincinnati in an American Athletic Conference game at 3:30 pm ET Saturday on ESPN. The Knights had a four-game winning streak snapped in a 34-13 upset loss at East Carolina last week.

No. 20 Cincinnati (6-1, 3-0) has won six straight since a 31-24 loss at Arkansas in the season opener for both. The two-time defending AAC champion Bearcats have not lost a league game since 2019.

Cincinnati vs UCF Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Cincinnati Bearcats +1.5 (-110) +100 Over 55.5 (-113)
UCF Knights -1.5 (-110) -121 Under 55.5 (-108)

Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Oct 27. Claim the Barstool Sportsbook promo code

UCF is a 1.5-point favorite over Cincinnati in a pivotal AAC game that matches teams who have won four of the last five AAC titles and are the 1-2 choices in the AAC conference title odds this season. The Bearcats are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings, two at Nippert Stadium. They won 27-24 as a 3.5-point underdog in 2019 and 36-33 as a 4-point underdog at USF at 2020.

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The Bearcats are 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season, including a “road” game against Miami O. that was played at Paycor Stadium, the home of the Cincinnati Bengals. UCF is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS at home this season and is 11-1 SU in their last 12 at home. The Bearcats have been under the total in 25 of their last 35 road games, the highest under percentage among FBS schools.

DraftKings posted UCF as a 3.5-point favorite Saturday morning, but the line moved immediately toward Cincinnati following the Knights’ decisive loss at East Carolina.

Cincinnati Just Keeps Winning

The Bearcats bolted to a big lead at SMU last week before holding on (and failing to cover) for a 29-27 victory as a three-point favorite, tying the AAC record with their 19th straight league win.

Bryant, who suffered a concussion in the 28-24 victory over South Florida the week before, returned to complete 18 of 35 passes for 200 yards a touchdown. The Bearcats settled for five field goals on multiple trips to the red zone, and secured the win when SMU could not complete a two-point conversion pass attempt with 1:57 remaining.

Cincinnati’s most effective weapon is halfback Charles McClelland, who has consecutive 100-yard games and leads the team with 631 yards rushing (6.9 yards per attempt) and six touchdowns. The Bearcats caught a break when SMU quarterback Mike Mordecai was forced out of the game last week with an injury.

Cincinnati’s top wide receiver Tyler Scott has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and is questionable. Scott has 28 receptions for 500 yards and six touchdowns.

UCF Faces a Must-Win Scenario

The Knights blew a chance to set up a matchup of AAC unbeatens against Cincinnati when they were thoroughly outplayed in a 34-13 loss at East Carolina last week. Instead, they find themselves behind Cincinnati and No. 23 Tulane (7-1, 4-0), although both teams here have games remaining against Tulane.

UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee passed for 296 yards against East Carolina, but he threw a season-high three interceptions and lost a fumble to help ECU win the turnover battle 4-0.

Plumlee has been hard to figure out this season. He has four 300-yard passing games, but three came against South Carolina State, Florida Atlantic and Temple.

Cincinnati vs UCF Prediction

Neither quarterback was on his game a week ago. East Carolina did not as much stop the Knights’ offense, which had 426 yards total offense, as take advantage of Plumlee’s numerous miscues.

UCF ranks No. 6 in NCAA Division I in total offense at 511 yards per game and the Bearcats are 19th in total defense at 305 yards per. The play here is that Plumlee will regain his form at home in a game the Knights have circled on their calendar since the schedule was posted last spring.

  • Pick: UCF -1.5 (-110)

 

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