College Football Week 1 ATS Picks: Bet on a Hungry Crimson Tide
- Week 1 of the 2019 College Football season begins on Thursday, August 29th
- We look at three ATS picks that provide good value in Week 1
- Alabama will be hungry for victory after losing 2018 National Championship Game
Week 1 of the 2019 college football season is set to begin on Thursday August, 29th.
There are some massive spreads this week, including National Championship co-favorites Alabama taking on Duke at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Here are three picks for Week 1.
Pick #1: Alabama rolls over Duke
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | +35 (-110) | — | O 58 (-110) |
| Alabama | -35 (-110) | — | U 58 (-110) |
*Odds taken 08/26/19
The Crimson Tide are going to be playing with a massive chip on their shoulder in their first game since the 44-16 dismantling at the hands of the Clemson Tigers in the National Championship game last year.
Alabama is 9-0 in neutral site openers under Nick Saban, and Tua Tagovailoa is a heavy favorite alongside Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence for this year’s Heisman trophy after a monstrous season from the Hawaiian last year.
Back on tour in 13 days.. https://t.co/rsODiBIMRV
— Tua. T 🇦🇸 (@Tua) August 18, 2019
Duke’s offense comes nowhere close to the elite talent Alabama possess up front. Not only have the Blue Devils lost last year’s starting QB Daniel Jones to the draft, but they have to replace six other starters from an offense that registered fewer than 21 points on six different occasions in 2018. Alabama, meanwhile, registered over 50 points in eight of their 12 regular-season wins.
While the Crimson Tide should easily win this one, the large spread and it may be tempting to bet on Alabama not covering. The Crimson Tide were only 1-3 ATS last season in games where they were favored by at least 30 points.
Despite the 2018 ATS history, I see Alabama winning and covering at -35. This is a stacked team that is going to be super hungry after that brutal end to last season. Tagovailoa and wide receiver Jerry Jeudy are arguably the the best quarterback/ wide receiver duo in the nation – and they’re going to get off to a big start.
Tagovailoa takes over this game and leads Alabama to a blowout victory over Duke.
Pick: Alabama -35
Pick #2: Texas doesn’t cover -20.5 spread vs. LA Tech
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | +20.5(-110) | — | O 55 (-110) |
| Texas | -20.5 (-110) | — | U 55 (-110) |
*Odds taken 08/26/19
There is plenty to like about the Longhorns this season, starting with Heisman hopeful quarterback Sam Ehlinger, but this is a tough spread against a solid Louisiana Tech team.
Bulldogs coach Skip Holtz is heading into his seventh year with the team after taking Louisiana Tech to five straight bowl games. The Bulldogs have shown in the past they can keep pace in games against power five teams. Louisiana Tech was only down by three in the fourth quarter against LSU last season and came close to upsetting the Tigers before eventually succumbing to a 38-21 loss.
Game week is upon us. Louisiana Tech is 1-10 in its last 11 games against Power Five opponents, but the Bulldogs are 7-4 against the spread with one outright win (goes back to 2014).#Longhorns enter the week as a 20.5-point favorite. #HookEm
— Jeff Howe (@JeffHowe247) August 26, 2019
This will be their first matchup between Texas and Louisiana Tech and I’m not confident enough in the Longhorns defense to bet on them covering the -20.5 spread here. Texas has lost a large amount of talent from the team that went 10-4 last season, including nine starters on defense.
Louisiana Tech’s senior quarterback J’Mar Smith is heading into this third season as a starter after throwing for 3160 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year. He’ll be familiar with his targets, as the Bulldogs are returning 10 of their 11 top receivers from 2018.
Injuries are a concern for Texas in Week 1, as projected top running back Keaontay Ingram is battling knee trouble and could be limited.
Louisiana Tech lost their best player on defense in all-time NCAA sack leader Jaylon Ferguson to graduation, so containing Ehlinger, who threw for almost 3300 yards for 25 touchdowns with just five interceptions in 2018 could be a problem.
In Tom Herman’s short history as head coach at Texas, his teams have played phenomenally as an underdog, but have had trouble putting away teams as the favorite. The Longhorns will take care of business, but won’t cover the large spread.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +20.5
Pick #3: Utah continues winning streak against BYU
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | -5.5 (-110) | -210 | O 48 (-110) |
| BYU | +5.5 (-110) | +175 | U 48 (-110) |
*Odds taken 08/24619
The Utes have been climbing in the Pac-12 odds all summer leading up to Week 1, with Kyle Whittingham’s team fielding their usual stout defense along with an experienced group of offensive returnees. https://twitter.com/RyanCFowler/status/1165837751272521730?s=20
Quarterback Tyler Huntley is poised for a big year after he threw for 1,788 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2018 before incurring a collarbone injury. Both Huntley and top RB Zack Moss didn’t play in Utah’s 35-27 win over BYU last year due to injury, but they will be playing this time.
Zack Moss is just 568 yards away from breaking the all-time @Utah_Football rushing mark held by Eddie Johnson (3,219). #goutes #ZackMossed pic.twitter.com/OiGecYU6HN
— Utah Athletics (@utahathletics) August 21, 2019
The Utes have won eight straight games against Cougars — and four of those five victories have been by over five points. BYU’s last win against Utah came at LaVell Edwards Stadium in 2009 when they beat the Utes 26-23 in OT. The Cougars have won five straight openers, but their experienced offense won’t be enough against an improved Utah defense that finished fifth in the nation last year.
BYU QB Zach Wilson and his strong group of receivers are going to provide a challenge in this nationally televised rivalry game, but Utah’s defense will slow them down and prevail in a tight one.
Huntley and Moss power Utah to their first win of the season.
Pick: Utah -5
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
