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College Football Week 6 Upset Picks: We’re Back on the Kentucky Train

Alex Kilpatrick

by Alex Kilpatrick in College Football

Oct 5, 2018 · 8:19 AM PDT

Kyle Field
What if you could fade all these people, against a ranked opponent? Photo by Clark Moody [CC License].
  • We came very, very close to finishing strongly in the black last week
  • Thanks, Bobby Petrino
  • Is Khalil Tate Mr. October again?

After disappointing results in Week 5, the SBD College Football Upsets Picker is back for your enjoyment.

Week 5 Upset Picks Results

Our Pick Result
Louisville (+205) L
Washington State (+115) W
Old Dominion (+230) L

I blame Bobby Petrino for all my failures, and you should too. The ODU game ended 37-35 in East Carolina’s favour, and Louisville should have won against Florida State. We only hit on the Washington State game, which left us down for the week. We’re now up 6.7 units on the season. Dangit. Let’s get back on track!

Week 6 College Football Upset Picks

 

Kentucky at Texas A&M

Team Spread Moneyline
Kentucky (#13) +5.5 (-115) +175
Texas A&M -5.5 (-115) -210

I’m going to be totally honest with you. The secret sauce we have in the SBD Upset Picker is that we just pick Kentucky every time they’re an underdog. It’s not super complicated.

This is the first time we’re picking the Wildcats as a road dog, and there’s a few reasons for that. Firstly, there’s not a lot of good home dogs this week. Secondly, Texas A&M is coming off two tough games, including a road loss to Alabama. The Aggies didn’t exactly outperform expectations against Arkansas at home last weekend, so there’s no reason the People’s SEC Champs can’t get out of here with a win.

The Aggies didn’t exactly outperform expectations against Arkansas at home last weekend, so there’s no reason the People’s SEC Champs can’t get out of here with a win.

Isn’t a little weird to see an undefeated, ranked team as a 5.5 point underdog against an unranked two-loss team? Maybe just a little? Maybe that has something to do with the favorite being the richest team in college football, and the underdog being a basketball school?

Iowa at Minnesota

Team Spread Moneyline
Iowa -7.0 (-115) -270
Minnesota +7.0 (-105) +230

Iowa is usually best described as an MRI machine: they’re loud, slow, inexplicably expensive, and then eventually they diagnose exactly what’s wrong with you. They have dashed the dreams of Playoff contender after Playoff contender, and help up a black-and-white scan of their weaknesses. You see, this is where you’ve got Greg Schiano. I’m very sorry. We’ll start treatment immediately.

Iowa is usually best described as an MRI machine: they’re loud, slow, inexplicably expensive, and then eventually they diagnose exactly what’s wrong with you.

The Hawkeyes have lost a  little of that magic in 2018. Wisconsin has problems, and Iowa did nothing to expose them. They missed Alex Hornibrook completely, despite holding Jonathan Taylor to a thoroughly human performance.

Minnesota haven’t been great in their second year under the overcaffeinated PJ Fleck, but they’ve been fine. They have two unmemorable wins and an unfortunate loss to Maryland on their record, which more or less makes them Texas. Also: home underdog. What’s not to like?

California at Arizona

Team Spread Moneyline
California -3.0 (-105) -145
Arizona +3.0 (-115) +125

Arizona’s had a tough year, everyone can see that, but they’re not far behind California in S&P+. They have a much, much better offense than California, even with Khalil Tate’s struggles, and there’s no reason to go wild for Cal right now. They made Oregon look like a Playoff team!

A lot of bettors have written Arizona off completely, as they’ve lost two games and failed to live up to the hype Khalil Tate generated in the offseason. However, their two losses came against Houston and USC, and this is their first year under a new head coach. Maybe Kevin Sumlin needs a little time, who knows. What we do know is that Arizona has all the makings of an explosive offense, and Cal wasn’t able to stop one of those last week.

Can Mr October return in his first October game of 2018? Hopefully!

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