- The 11th-ranked Missouri Tigers are 11-point home favorites over the Florida Gators in their SEC game on Saturday, November 18
- Missouri is 2-0 ATS in the last two games against Florida
- The Gators are 2-3 both SU and ATS the last five road games facing the Tigers
The #11 Missouri Tigers (8-2. 7-3 ATS) are exactly what the Florida Gators (5-5, 3-7 ATS) don’t like seeing on the other sideline on game day. Ranked teams tend to bring out the worst in the Gators.
Florida is 2-8 straight up in the last 10 games facing a team ranked in the top-25. On the other hand, the Gators are 5-5 against the spread in that span. Then again, Florida is 1-3 ATS in the last four games when a double-digit underdog to a ranked team.
That’s again the case in this game. The Tigers are the 11-point home chalk in the Florida vs Missouri odds. Missouri is 1-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season.
Let’s take a deep dive into the Florida vs Missouri odds and offer you our prediction for this Week 12 SEC showdown.
Florida vs Missouri Odds
|Florida Gators||+340||+11 (-110)||Over 57.5 (-105)|
|Missouri Tigers||-425||-11 (-110)||Under 57.5 (-115)|
In the Florida vs Missouri odds, the Tigers are -425 moneyline favorites, giving them an 80.95% implied win probability. The total is set at 57.5 points. That’s the eighth successive game between these two schools with a total of 50+ points..
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Last year, Florida won 24-17 at home, but Missouri covered as 11-point away underdogs. The Tigers have covered in the last two games against the Gators.
Kickoff for this game at Faurot Field on Saturday, November 18 is set for 7:00 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by ESPN.
Gators vs Tigers Betting Trends
In the college football public betting splits, the people are taking notice of Florida’s lack of success when playing top teams. In the spread splits, Missouri at -11 is getting 61% of handle and 72% of bets. The Gators are 3-8 ATS over the past 11 games. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven SEC games.
Missouri is dominating the moneyline in the minds of public bettors. There’s 100% of handle and 98% of bets backing the Tigers. Missouri is 7-1 SU in the last eight games.
Even at 57.5 points, the over is the people’s choice on the total. It’s garnering 78% of bets and 76% of handle. However, each of the past six Florida vs Missouri games have gone under.
Gators QB Mertz Accurate And Consistent
Florida QB1 Graham Mertz continues to enjoy a solid season. He’s completing 73.3% of his passes (247-for-337). That leads the SEC and ranks him fifth nationally. He’s passed for 250+ yards and multiple touchdowns in four of the Gators’ last five games.
Florida QB Graham Mertz is quietly putting together a great season for the Gators 🐊
• 73.8% CMP
• 2,720 YDS
• 18 Passing TD’s
• 2 INT
• 4 Rushing TD’s
Where would you rank him among CFB QB’s? ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/mbUxr4SWEM
— Elite College Football (@elitecfball) November 13, 2023
Mertz also ranks fourth in the FBS and first in the SEC in TD pass-interception ratio (9.0). He’s thrown for 18 TDs and has been picked off only twice.
Florida is also a deadly red zone squad. The Gators own a 92.7% red zone conversion rate. That’s 16th overall in the nation. Over the past nine games, Florida has produced points from 36 of 37 red-zone visits.
Schrader Could Shred Florida
If the Gators want any hope of victory in this game, they must first figure out a way to contain Missouri RB Cody Schrader. He’s leading the SEC with 1,124 rushing yards. Schrader has rambled for 11 TDs. Schrader rushed for 205 yards and gained 321 yards of total offense in last week’s drubbing of Tennessee.
Two years ago, Cody Schrader was playing for D-II Truman State.
Last year, he walked on at Mizzou.
Tonight, he had 205 rushing yards, 116 receiving yards, and got lifted up by his teammates.
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 12, 2023
Here’s the problem – Florida’s defense can’t stop the run. The Gators are giving up 160 yards per game on the ground, which is 86th in the country. Last week, LSU carved them up for 329 rushing yards, 234 of them coming from LSU QB and contender in the Heisman Trophy odds Jayden Daniels. Over the past four games, Florida has surrendered 868 yards on the ground.
Florida vs Missouri Prediction
The Gators have dropped three games in a row. They must post one more victory to become bowl-eligible and next week are facing #4 Florida State.
These two teams will be meeting for the 13th time and 13 will prove a lucky number for one school. That’s because the all-time series is deadlocked 6-6.
That team will be Missouri. The Gators are a dismal 1-4 SU on the road this season. They allow 38.2 points per game away from home.
Florida vs Missouri Pick: Missouri Tigers -11 (-110)