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Fresno State vs Boise State Odds and Prediction – Best Bets for Mountain West Championship

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in College Football

Updated Dec 1, 2022 · 9:29 AM PST

Boise State Broncos running back George Holani runs for a touchdown
Oct 8, 2022; Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos running back George Holani (24) runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Fresno State Bulldogs at Albertsons Stadium. Boise State defeated Fresno State 40-20. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports
  • Fresno State takes on Boise State on Saturday afternoon, December 3rd, for the Mountain West Championship
  • The Bulldogs are currently 3.5-point betting underdogs against the Broncos in the CFB odds
  • Read below for Fresno State vs Boise State odds, spread and predictions for the MWC title game

This college football contest features Fresno State and Boise State in a game on Saturday, December 3. Kickoff is set for just after 4:00 PM ET at Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho), and the game will be live on Fox. Now, Fresno State gets that second chance to beat in the conference championship game this weekend.

Fresno State is currently a 3.5-point betting underdog and the total is set at 54 for this contest. The Bulldogs are slight “road” underdogs.

Let’s dive into the Fresno State vs Boise State odds and offer you our best bets and predictions.

Fresno State vs Boise State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Fresno State +3.5 (-110) +135 Over 54 (-110)
Boise State -3.5 (-110) -160 Under 54 (-110)

Odds as of  December 1st at BetMGM Sportsbook. Get the BetMGM promo code for CFB betting.

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Boise State is -160 on the moneyline in the college football odds, giving them 61.5% implied probability to win.

Fresno State Gets Shot At Revenge

So, Head Coach Jeff Tedford has seen his Bulldogs look great in conference play. He knows Fresno State has its shortcomings. Still, the Bulldogs are 8-4 (7-1 in the MWC West). Fresno State averages exactly 30.9 points per game and are riding the wave of a seven-game winning streak. Last week, the Bulldogs made a statement as they shutout Wyoming at home by 30 points.

Yes, Jake Haener, the Fresno State quarterback tossed one touchdown pass as the Bulldogs’ running game accounted for 114 yards and three touchdown plunges. Haener and Fresno State know they have to run the ball better. Even last week, the numbers were not great as they averaged a mere 3.3 yards per carry.

Now, Fresno State possesses one of the deepest wide receiving corps in college football. Jalen Cropper and Nikko Remigio stretch the field and have a quarterback in Jake Haener that can get those players the ball. Logan Fife was not the answer against Fresno State. There is little doubt that Haener possesses a better chance at defeating Boise State.

The key for the Bulldogs is the balance with that little extra game-breaking ability. Jake Haener tossed 17 touchdowns in eight games compared to just three interceptions. Add in a couple of running touchdowns and fewer miscues, Haener gives Fresno State the best chance to win.

Fresno State’s defense yielded less than 200 yards to Wyoming last week but more importantly pitched a shutout. That will be needed again versus Boise State on the road.

Boise State Features The Balance

Head coach Andy Avalos understands the game against Fresno State is about balance. The Broncos run the ball as well as they throw (196.3 yards per game passing, 190.4 yards per game rushing). Boise State’s biggest assets are its running game and defensive front seven. The Broncos average 4.9 yards per carry and allow just 3.6 yards per run. Since the defense only sees 25 pass attempts per game, Fresno State may try to throw a little more on Saturday.

Yes, Boise State enjoyed a breather and an easy 42-23 win over Utah State last week.

Can Boise State do enough of what they managed against Fresno State in meeting number one? Fresno State has not faced a rushing attack and offensive line like the Broncos. That line must help keep the Bulldogs’ offense off the field. Then, the defensive line must get pressure on Jake Haener and alter the timing of his throws. Haener will get his yards and maybe a touchdown or two.

The key remains essential for the Broncos. Control the line of scrimmage and get the crowd into the game early. Green, Holani, and Jeanty leading the way is vital.

Boise State’s latest conference title odds stood at -125 as of November 7th. They are -160 moneyline favorites currently.

Fresno State vs Boise State Prediction

Most experts believe Fresno State possesses the tools to stay with Boise State. The question is can the Bulldogs do this on the “blue turf”?

Given that both teams are on rather warm-to-hot runs, this game could be lots of fun.

Fresno State getting 3.5 points seems about right. That being said, Boise State runs the clock out better than anyone in the conference. Cold weather with temperatures in the 30’s only help the Broncos more on Saturday.

Pick:  Boise State -3.5 (-110)


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